SeatworkCompute for MAD, MSE and MAPE usingMoving Average Model (past 3 Weeks),В.А.Exponential Smoothing Model (a = 0.2)С.What is your sales forecast for Period 8 using A and B?PeriodActual SalesForecastErrorError|Error|Error %|139244340453864339MADMSEМАРЕ

Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand or sales using the previous years or…

Answered: Seatwork Compute for MAD, MSE and MAPE…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter7: Nonlinear Optimization Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 56P

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Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
4, The accompanying dataset provides the closing prices for four stocks and the stock exchange over 12 days. Complete parts a through c. Complete the exponential smoothing forecast model for stock B. (Type integers or decimals rounded to two decimal places as needed.) Date Forecast B 09/03/2010 09/07/2010 enter your response here 09/08/2010 enter your response here 09/09/2010 enter your response here 09/10/2010 enter your response here 09/13/2010 enter your response here 09/14/2010 enter your response here 09/15/2010 enter your response here 09/16/2010 enter your response here 09/17/2010 enter your response here 09/20/2010 enter your response here 09/21/2010 enter your response here Date A B C D Stock Exchange 09/03/2010 127.07 18.54 20.84 15.44 10,536.56 09/07/2010 124.84 18.21 20.45 15.55 10,245.77 09/08/2010 125.67 17.77 20.83 15.72…
Sara manages one of the Albireds shoe lines, and is working to improve the group's forecasting capabilities so that production will more closely match actual demand (that's the goal, at least!). Work our the exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, (seed the model with a January forecast = 16,000). A weighted moving average using 0.6(t-1), 0.3(t-2) and 0.1(t-3)
1. Omar has heard from some of his customers that they will probably cut back on order sizes in thenext quarter. The company he works for has been reducing its sales force due to falling demand andhe worries that he could be next if his sales begin to fall off. Believing that he may be able to convince his customers not to cut back on orders, he turns in an optimistic forecast of his next quartersales to his manager. What are the pros and cons of doing that?
Medanalysis, Inc., provides medical laboratory services to patients of Health Providers, a group of 10 family-practice doctors associated with a new health maintenance program. Managers are interested in forecasting thenumber of blood analysis requests per week. Recent publicity about the damaging effects of cholesterol on theheart has caused a national increase in requests for standard blood tests. The arrivals over the last 16 weeks aregiven in Table 8.1. What is the forecasted demand for the next three periods?
1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.
This a 4 part question that am confused about. Please show the work by hand not excel. 4-1 Sales of a particular product (in the thousands of dollars) for the years 2015 through 2018 have been $48,000, $64,000, $67,000 and $83,000 respectively. (a)What sales would you predict for 2019, using simple four-year moving avaerage? (b) What sales would you predict for 2019, using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.50 for the immediate preceding year and 0.3, 0.15, and 0.05 for the three years before that? (I am able to calculate and know the answer for (a) $65,000 and (b) $73,000. What I don't understand is the following : 4-2 Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and $50,000 for 2017 and 2018, what would you forecast for 2019 ? (The first forecast is equal to the value of the preceding year.) (b) Given this forecast and actual 2019 sales of $53,000, what would you then forecast for 2020? 4-3 In Problem 4-1, taking…
Problem 1 Forecasting • All analysis and calculations and report must be done in a single (ONE) Excel file.• Put your name at the top of the worksheet.• Make Excel do all of the calculations. (Instructor must be able to see your cell-reference formulas.)• Include report/answers below the forecasting calculations. o Make sure answers are clear, complete and easy to find. o Your report must include: a. Presentation of forecasts b. Explanation of why you chose each of the methods 1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years oftourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the localinformation center. Year Number of tourists1 7002 2483 6334 4585 14106 15887 16298 13019 145510 1989 Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is…
Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12 consecutive months follow. 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.8 10.6 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.6 (b) Develop three-month and four-month moving averages for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Month Time SeriesValue 3-Month MovingAverage Forecast 4-Month MovingAverage Forecast 1 9.6 2 9.4 3 9.5 4 9.7 5 9.9 6 9.8 7 9.8 8 10.6 9 10.0 10 9.8 11 9.6 12 9.6 (c) Using the more accurate forecast, what is the moving average forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the regression? b. The actual demand for period 48 was just learned to be 5,100. Add this demand to the Inputs file and change the starting period for the regression to period 2 so that the number of periods in the regression remains unchanged. How much or little does the forecast for period 49 change from the one for period 48? The error measures? Are you surprised?c. Now change the time when the regression starts to period 25 and repeat the process. What differences do you note now? What forecast will you make for period 49?
Exponential Smoothing, Exponentially Smoothed MAD, and Tracking SignalThe XYZ Company was flooded by a thunderstorm and lost part of its forecasting data.Positions in the table that are marked [a], [b], [c], [d], [e], and [ f ] must be recalculated from the remaining data.

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Seatwork Compute for MAD, MSE and MAPE using Moving Average Model (past 3 Weeks), В. А. Exponential Smoothing Model (a = 0.2) What is your sales forecast for Period 8 using A and B? С. Period Actual Sales Forecast Error |Error| Error |Error %| 39 2 44 3 40 4 45 38 6 43 7 39 MAD MSE МАРЕ