Show Solution): ABC Construction Company is going to decide whether they are going to expand their business, build an additional facility, or subcontract a partner company. The research and development department forecasted the following payoff values which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as GAINS and alpha = 0.6. Come up with a decision using the different criteria under conditions of uncertainty:
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(Show Solution):
ABC Construction Company is going to decide whether they are going to expand their business, build an additional facility, or subcontract a partner company. The research and development department
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- What information does a decision maker need in order to perform an expected-value analysis ofa problem? What options are available to the decision maker if the probabilities of the states ofnature are unknown? Can you think of a way you might use sensitivity analysis in such a case?OPERATIONS RESEARCH TWO Sakala is interested in developing and marketing a new drug. The cost of extensive research to develop the drug would be K100,000. The manager of research programme said that there is 60% chance that the drug will be developed successfully. The market potential is assessed as follows with present value of profit: Market conditions Probability Present value of profits (K) Large market potential 0.1 500,000 Moderate market potential 0.6 220,000 Low market potential 0.3 80,000 The present value figures do not include the cost of research. While Mr. Sakala was considering this proposal, another similar proposal came up which also required the investment of K100,000 .The present value of profit for the second proposal wasK120,000. The return on the investment in the second proposal is almost certain. Draw a decision tree for Mr. Sakala indicating all choices and events What decision Mr. Sakala should take regarding the…Answer the following MCQ questions. 1) When Delroy draw on well-developed procedures in his job of grocery store inventory clerk to determine which products to stock first, he is making which type of decision? a) Tactical b) Programmed c) Operational d) Non-Programmed 2) Identifying a problem and matching it with established routines and procedures for resolving it is a ? a) Tactical decision b) Programmed decision c) Operational decision d) Non-Programmed decision 3) Crystal is a marketing manager who is deciding how to allocate the financial resources among three different product launches over the next three months years. Crystal is making a ? a) Strategic decision b) Operational decision c) Tactical decision d) Opportunistic decision
- Exhibit 20-2Below is a payoff table involving three states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision States of Nature Alternative s1 s2 s3 A 80 45 –20 B 40 50 15 P(s1) = .1, P(s2) = .6, and P(s3) = .3.Refer to Exhibit 20-2. The expected value of the best alternative equals _____. a. 12 b. 38.5 c. 29 d. 105Zaki has been thinking about starting his own petrol station. He’s problem is to decide how large his petrol station should be. The annual return that will be achieved depends on whether the economy is good, fair, or poor. A payoff table has been constructed to illustrate this situation: (Business Quantitative Analysis) Determine using the best investment using the following decision criteria: a) Maximax criterion b) Maximin criterion c) Equally Likely criterion d) Minimax Regret criterion The probabilities of good market, average market, and poor market are 0.4, 0.5, and 0.1 respectively. Construct an expected opportunity loss table. Using minimum EOL as the decision criterion, determine the best alternativeLetz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcomeof the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting itsown marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. Theinformation from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a smallplant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it withperfect information, it may be extremely helpful. Using the image explain to your client (Letz) what the above decision tree shows. You arerequired to show all working.
- Come up with a decision using each of the different criteria under conditions of uncertainty using the table below. The payoff values are expressed as LOSSES.Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Build large plant $400,000 −$300,000 Build small plant $120,000 −$15,000 Don't Build $0 $0 Market Probability 0.40 0.60 a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in Figure ____ (all payoffs are in thousands). b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______ . c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) = $___________ (enter your answer as a whole numCarlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?
- Refer to Problems 1 and 2. Construct a graph that will enable you to perform sensitivity analysis on the problem. Over what range of P(high) would the alternative of doing nothing be best? Expand? Subcontract?What will be Hale’s TV Production’s decision based on the following criteria:a. MAXIMAXb. MAXIMINc. MINIMAX REGRETd. EXPECTED VALUEe. Construct the decision tree for this problem and indicate the decision based on the decision tree analysis.can you pls answer letter a,b,cThe CEO of Lucky Petroleum Co. has been considering to open a new gasoline statioin. He must decide how large the station should be. The annual returns (IDR billions) will depend on both the size of the station and market factor. After a careful analysis he developed the following table: Size of Station Good Market Fair Market Poor Market Small 50 20 -10 Medium 70 30 -20 Large 100 50 -30 Probability 0.5 0.3 0.2 Compute the expected value of each alternative size of station, and select the best decision. Construct the opportunity loss table and determine the best decision. Compute the expected value of perfect information.