Suppose we observe 84 alcoholics with cirrhosis of the liver, of whom 29 have hepatomas—that is, liver-cell carcinoma. Suppose we know, based on a large sample, that the risk of hepatoma among alcoholics without cirrhosis of the liver is 24%. What is the probability that we observe exactly 29 alcoholics with cirrhosis of the liver who have hepatomas if the true rate of hepatoma among alcoholics (with or without cirrhosis of the liver) is .24?

Question

Suppose we observe 84 alcoholics with cirrhosis of the liver, of whom 29 have hepatomas—that is, liver-cell carcinoma. Suppose we know, based on a large sample, that the risk of hepatoma among alcoholics without cirrhosis of the
liver is 24%.

What is the probability that we observe exactly 29 alcoholics with cirrhosis of the liver who have hepatomas if the true rate of hepatoma among alcoholics (with or without cirrhosis of the liver) is .24?

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