Suppose we want to estimate the proportion of the Helena population who have used marijuana within the last month. We select 4328 participants and ask them each to first privately draw a card from a standard 52-card deck. If they get a “club” they are asked to respond truthfully to the question “Have you used marijuana within the last month?”If they get any other suit they are asked to respond to the question “Does your phone number end in an odd digit?”The study is blinded in the sense that the researcher doesn’t know which question the participant is answering. Hence, participants are guaranteed anonymity and are more likely to be truthful in their responses. The researchers only get a “yes” or “no” answer from each respondent and don’t know the actual results of the card draw. What is the expected probability of a person’s phone number ending in an odd digit? What is the expected probability of a person’s phone number not ending in an odd digit?
Suppose we want to estimate the proportion of the Helena population who have used marijuana within the last month. We select 4328 participants and ask them each to first privately draw a card from a standard 52-card deck.
If they get a “club” they are asked to respond truthfully to the question “Have you used marijuana within the last month?”If they get any other suit they are asked to respond to the question “Does your phone number end in an odd digit?”The study is blinded in the sense that the researcher doesn’t know which question the participant is answering. Hence, participants are guaranteed anonymity and are more likely to be truthful in their responses. The researchers only get a “yes” or “no” answer from each respondent and don’t know the actual results of the card draw.
What is the expected probability of a person’s phone number ending in an odd digit?
What is the expected probability of a person’s phone number not ending in an odd digit?
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