(T/F) A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of .3 will.
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- QUESTION 1 Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below. 1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast 2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months 3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013? 4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors? Month Actual Sales Forecast Jan 2012 438 Feb 420 March 414 Apr 318 May 306 June 240 July 240 Aug 216 Sep 198 Oct 225 Nov 270 Dec 315 Jan 2013 - QUESTION 2Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below. Month Demand (10s of bags) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below: a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA) b.…Question 1 Double Exponential Smoothing should be applied to time series with ____________________. Group of answer choices a. no trend and no seasonality. b. trend but no seasonality. c. seasonality but no trend. d. both trend and seasonality. Question 2 An analyst fits a Holt’s Double exponential smoothing model in StatTools to a time series data on sales with the smoothing parameters to be optimized by the software. In the output she notes that the optimized smoothing parameter for trend to be 0.0000. What does this imply? Group of answer choices a. There is no trend in the data. b. There is both trend and seasonality in the data. c. There could be trend in the data, but it is not smoothed over time by the model. d. This output does not make any sense!Question 16 Daily demand for sandwiches at a local deli is shown in the table. Using a 3 period weighted moving average (most recent demands receive the highest weights) with weights W1 = 0.50, W2 = 0.30 and W3 = 0.20, what is the forecast for day 8? Group of answer choices a. 39.3 sandwiches b. 41.3 sandwiches c. 43 sandwiches d. 43.3 sandwiches e. Impossible to determine
- Question 2Chad and James are two veteran sales executives who have been working for a well-established car distributor selling new cars. About six years ago, believing that there were good prospects in starting a business in selling used cars, both gentlemen left their employment to venture out.Since the beginning of their company, sales had been quite positive, but the owners now wanted to know more about future sales using an appropriate forecasting method. For a start, they wanted to focus on the quarterly sales of a popular brand of used cars.The sales figures over the last five years were used for the forecast. They are presented in the table below. (c) Explain why forecasting, despite its usefulness or sophistication, should only be considered a useful tool for decision making in any business. What are other factors that need to be considered? (d) The business of selling cars in Singapore, like many businesses, is subject to uncertainties.Discuss three (3) external factors,…Question 4 (a) With reference to your department or one in a company or organization that you are familiar with that is involved in generating forecasts of air cargo traffic, propose the purposes for which the forecasts can be employed. In the process of generating air cargo traffic forecasts, appraise the forces that will promote air freight growth and the constraints the air cargo market are likely to face.Question Four: ABC Company sells home appliances. Daily sales for a six-day period were as follows: Day Sales Saturday 20 Sunday 24 Monday 30 Tuesday 40 Wednesday 36 Thursday 44 Forecast Friday sales volume using each of the following methods: A three-day moving average. A four day weighted average using weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming Wednesday forecast of 42. Determine a linear trend line equation for ABC Company. Use the trend equation to forecast Friday sales volume.
- QUESTION ONE (b) The forecast of a product for the first week of January was 200 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 220 units. i. Find the forecast for the week of January assuming the smoothing constant 0.2 α = ii. Find the forecast for the third week of third week of January if the actual demand of the second week is 210 unitsQuestion 21 A CFE of -140 suggests which of the following? Group of answer choices a. There is a bias towards over forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not b. There is a severe bias towards overforecasting c. There is a bias towards under forecasting, though we cannot determine from the data provided whether that is severe bias or not d. There is a severe bias towards under forecasting e. Bias is negligible in this caseQuestion 3 [Soalan 3] Use the data set below to answer the following questions: [Gunakan set data di bawah untuk menjawab soalan-soalan berikut:] Table 1: Monthly sales unit [Jadual 1: Unit jualan bulanan] Month [Bulan] Sales Units [Unit Jualan] 1 1100 2 1200 3 1450 4 1800 5 2100 6 2700 ii) Calculate the four-period weighted moving average forecasts for months 5 and 6 using weights of 0.05, 0.15, 0.30, and 0.50 from the earliest period to the latest period, respectively. [Hitungkan ramalan wajaran purata bergerak menggunakan empat-tempoh untuk bulan 5 dan 6 menggunakan pemberat 0.05, 0.15, 0.30 dan 0.50 dari tempoh yang terawal ke tempoh yang terakhir mengikut turutan.]
- Question No. 1List the specific weaknesses of each of these approaches to developing a forecast:a. Consumer surveys.b. Salesforce composite.c. Committee of managers or executives. Question No. 2What kinds of capacity problems do many elementary and secondary schools periodically experience? What are some alternatives to deal with those problems? Question No. 3The XYZ company produces all type of office furniture. The “Executive Secretary” is a chair that has been designed using ergonomics to provide comfort during long office hours. The chair sells for $130. There are 480 minutes available during the day, and the average daily demand has been 50 chairs. There are eight tasks; TaskTime (min)Immediate predecessor A4- B7- C6A, B D5C E6D F7E G8E I6F, G Draw a precedence diagram of this operationWhat is the cycle time for this operation?What is the theoretical minimum number of workstations?Assign tasks to the workstationsWhat is the idle time per cycle?What is the efficiency of the…Question A reputable FMCG company is holding its Annual Sales Conference on January 30th 2021 for its New Year sales plan. The company is interested in launching new product beside its existing product lines. The new product will be novel in the history of the company. explain what FMCG company seeks for and following for above mentioned firm, with reason/limitations specified for the FMCG company. Discuss the techniques of forecasting that will be used by the company for its existing and new products. Explain specific type and reason for using those techniques. Also identify the limitations of these techniques. Use word/ExcelQuestion 35 Suppose the actual sales and the forecasted, or smoothed sales, for the past 5 months have been Actual Smoothed 54.4 76.8 54.4 75.5 72.3 53.2 74.8 39.2 57.6 What is the Mean Square Error of the smoothed series? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)