The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a newfertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful,the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful,the company will lose $35,000. In the past, similar productshave been successful 60% of the time. At a cost of $5,000,the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If thetest result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that thefertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable,there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will besuccessful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test resultand a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. DetermineNitro’s optimal strategy. Also find EVSI and EVPI.

The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a newfertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful,the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful,the company will lose $35,000. In the past, similar productshave been successful 60% of the time. At a cost of $5,000,the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If thetest result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that thefertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable,there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will besuccessful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test resultand a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. DetermineNitro’s optimal strategy. Also find EVSI and EVPI.

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.5: Multistage Decision Problems

Problem 19P

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