Discuss the following statement: “Economists are predicting that interest rates willcontinue to be under 10 percent for at least 15 years.”
Q: (a) Apply the moving average (MA) model with a three-day lag (q = 3) and a five-day lag (q =5) to…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: Movieflix, an online movie streaming service that offers a wide variety of award-winning TV shows,…
A: Qualitative forecasting is a methodology in forecasting which primarily focuses on the judgement,…
Q: If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 360 and α = 0.20, using exponential…
A: Sept. 7 forecast = Aug. 31 forecast + alpha (Aug. 31 demand- Aug. 31 forecast) Sept. 7 forecast =…
Q: Use the below formula to calculate the CLV for the following: A manager of a cable company wants…
A: Given that - Margin profit (M) = $150 Annual marketing cost (C) = $30 Retention rate (r) = 65%…
Q: Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value…
A: The answer is as below:
Q: The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan,…
A: Given- The state-of-nature probabilities and relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:…
Q: 1. The manager of an auto parts dealership wants to forecast the bimonthly demand for spark plugs…
A: Find the given details below: Given details: Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 BIMEST 1…
Q: Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the…
A: Yt= Value of Current yearFt=Yt-1+Yt-2+Yt-33
Q: Compute the MAD and tracking signal for each period.
A: ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: The data below represents the quarterly changes in demand for a product over the next 3 months.…
A: Given data is
Q: In contrast to causal techniques, what are the fundamental assumptions made when time series…
A: One of the most fundamental assumptions of time series forecasting :
Q: The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan,…
A: Given data: state of nature low demand medium demand high demand Decision…
Q: A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are…
A: Given data- Period Demand 1 15 2 17 3 20 4 23 5 25 6 29 7 34 8 36 9 39
Q: Discuss what are the benefits as a prediction tool over the moving average of exponential smoothing?
A: Exponential smoothing is more adaptable than sliding midpoints in that it allows for easy adjustment…
Q: The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan,…
A: Given data is Ps1 = 0.35 Ps2 = 0.35 Ps3 = 0.30
Q: The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a.Use expected…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Demand and forecast for 5 months are given below: Month Demand Forecast 1 50 46 2 52 52 3…
A: Tracking Signal is used to determine the larger deviation (in both plus and minus) of Error in…
Q: A company's annual profits have a trend line given by Y = 10,000t + 5,000, where Y is the trend and…
A: Calculation of expected profit is as follows: In an additive model the time series is expressed as:…
Q: year quarterly sales (000 units) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 1300 1500 1200 2000 2017 1600 1800 1100…
A: Find the given details below: Given Details Year Quarter Sales(000 units) 2016 Q1 1300 Q2…
Q: The estimated least-squares regression equation for profit (in $100,000) is: y' = 2.5 + 0.054t Sales…
A: The least-squares techniques can be stated as the statistical procedure to discover the effective or…
Q: Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the…
A:
Q: The probability of business doing good is 0.7 and the probability of slow business is 0.3. Using…
A: He can easily buy the factory as the probability is 0.7 of good. ANSWER is BUY.
Q: hovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the last 12…
A: a) b)
Q: Describe a scenario that you have encountered recently as a consumer where a business has either…
A: Forecasting is the method involved with making expectations dependent on over a wide span of time…
Q: expecting to increase its annual sales for BMW- X5 in year 2021 by 10 % compared to year 2020 annual…
A: The question is related to the sales for 2021 based in the sales of 2020 on quarterly basis. It is…
Q: Quarterly demand for Ford F150 pickups at a New York autodealer is forecast with the equation:yn =…
A: Given data Where, X= quarters Yn= Quarterly demand Quarter I of year 1 is 0 Quarter II of year 1…
Q: Jane is a Halloween pumpkin vendor serving her own neighborhood. She purchases pumpkins for $5 each…
A: Cost = $5 Selling price = $10 Salvage value = $3 Marginal profit = Selling price - Cost = 10 - 5 =5…
Q: Movieflix, an online movie streaming service that offers a wide variety of award-winning TV shows,…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Year Membership (000s) 2013 17 2014 16 2015…
Q: Find the MAD and Tracking signal in below table. Do you think this forecast is acceptable? Why? How…
A: Given information- Period Actual demand Forecast 1 220 200 2 300 310 3 400 340 4 340 350…
Q: Compute the MAD and tracking signal for each period
A: ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: What sorts of risks do you see in reliance on the Internet in the use of Collaborative Planning,…
A: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment is a methodology that expects to upgrade…
Q: Joseph owns a medium sized business that has been increasingly successful over the past several…
A: INTRODUCTION: A pension plan is an investment strategy for retirement that offers benefits to…
Q: 10. Quarterly demand for Jaguar XJ8’s at a Tacloban Auto dealership is forecast with the equation,…
A: Forecasting is used by companies to match supply with demand and to avoid opportunity costs issues.…
Q: ccording to a survey by Accountemps, 48% of executives believe that employees are most productive on…
A: Given , Population proportion = 48% n = 220
Q: We are using Winter’s method and monthly data toforecast the GDP. (All numbers are in billions of…
A: Given data, The following seasonalities January = 0.80 February = 0.85 December = 1.2 In…
Q: The long-term financial forecast plays a crucial part in the company's long-term strategic plan.…
A: This statement is TRUE.
Q: The Ramshead Pub sells a large quantity of beer every Saturday. From past sales records, the pub has…
A: Expected number of barrels=60.10+70.20+80.40+90.25+100.05=0.6+1.4+3.2+2.25+0.5=7.95
Q: Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.30, estimate the smoothed value…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Q.2: An economist who estimated the Keynesian money demand function in logarithmic form using data…
A: Keynes made the demand for money an element of two factors, in particular income and the pace of…
Q: ovid-19 is affecting every sector of society. It is expected that Covied-19 will remain there for…
A: Human Resource Planning is the strategical tool that helps in forecasting the current and future…
Q: IMTAC a market leader in the production of heavy lathe machinery. The sales over the past 10 months…
A: Weighted Moving AverageWeighted Moving Average Forecast is based on an n period weighted moving…
Q: The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan,…
A: low demand medium demand high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100…
Q: The equation y = 210 + 3x is used to predict quarterly demand where x = 0 in the second quarter of…
A: Calculating the forecast for the third quarter of the year. We have,Y = 210 + 3xHere,x = Third…
Discuss the following statement: “Economists are predicting that interest rates will
continue to be under 10 percent for at least 15 years.”
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps
- Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.
- Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package (Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities: fragile, semifragile, and durable. Costs for 15 randomly chosen packages of approximately the same weight and same distance shipped, but of different cargo types, are provided in the file P13_16.xlsx. a. Estimate a regression equation using the given sample data, and interpret the estimated regression coefficients. b. According to the estimated regression equation, which cargo type is the most costly to ship? Which cargo type is the least costly to ship? c. How well does the estimated equation fit the given sample data? How might the fit be improved? d. Given the estimated regression equation, predict the cost of shipping a package with semifragile cargo.
- The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?Assume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of winning in each game it plays. During an 82-game season what is the average length of the teams longest winning streak? What is the probability that the team has a winning streak of at least 16 games? Use simulation to answer these questions, where each iteration of the simulation generates the outcomes of all 82 games.Find Trend adjusted exponential forecast for predicting the sales of the data below for period 11 and 12. Initialize in period 9. The value of alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.2 1 700 2 724 3 720 4 728 5 740 6 742 7 758 8 750 9 770 10 775
- As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 Heart Transplants 48.0 50.0 52.0 57.0 58.0 The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 44.0 surgeries. a) Using exponential smoothing with α of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place): Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Forecast 44.0 nothing nothing nothingCompcomm, Inc., is an international communications andinformation technology company that has seen the value ofits common stock appreciate substantially in recent years.A stock analyst would like to predict the stock prices ofCompcomm for an extended period with simulation. Basedon historical data, the analyst has developed the followingprobability distribution for the movement of Compcommstock prices per day:Use the below formula to calculate the CLV for the following: A manager of a cable company wants to determine if it is strategic to acquire the Brett family, by estimating their household-level CLV. The manager estimates that it will cost the company $80 (A) to get the Bretts’ to switch, and the Bretts’ will generate $150 profit each year (M), with a $30 annual marketing cost to retain them (C). The estimated retention rate (r) is 65%, and the current discount rate is 5%.(d) i) CLV= ii) Based on your calculation, are the Brett’s profitable to the cable company?