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- 1.True or False: Businesses and government care only about long-run economic forecasts, because they cannot adapt policy or output to accommodate short-run fluctuations. 2.Suppose the most recent data show that the average initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance have recently increased. This change suggests a )RECCESSIONARY or EXPANSIONARY) period in the coming months? 3.Economists disagree about how quickly the economy adjusts to an aggregate demand shock. In the view of some economists, people form expectations based on present realities and change expectations gradually as their experience unfolds. Such expectations are said to be rational, unexpected, adaptive, reasonable, or great ? 4. Suppose an unanticipated increase in investment spending causes the aggregate demand curve to shift to the right (from AD1AD1 to AD2AD2). According to adherents of the adaptive-expectations theory, the unanticipated change in aggregate demand will cause the economy to move in which…According to adaptive expectations, what happensto the inflation rate and the unemploymentrate in the following situations?a. Initially, the economy is operating at thenatural rate of 6 percent unemployment.The anticipated rate of inflation is6 percent, and the actual rate is also6 percent.b. In the next period, there is an unexpected risein the inflation rate to 10 percent.c. In the next period, there is an unexpected risein the inflation rate to 12 percent.Explain the implications of the rational expectations assumption for the Explain the implications of the rational expectations assumption for the effectiveness of economic stabilization policy? Explain the implications of the rational expectations assumption for the
- Using the Frieman-Phelps expectations-augmented Phillips curve, if actual and expected inflationare equal to each other, thenA)workers are correctly forecasting inflation and the economy is in long run equilibriumB)the policymaker needs to pursue expansionary policy to create more output.C)in the long run workers will adjust their expectations, resulting in a business cycle in the longrun.D)the economy is in an expansion above the natural rate of output.Old MathJax webview Assume the public have rational expectations. According to the model, which policy is better: A monetary authority bound by rules or discretion? Assume the public have rational expectations. According to the model, which policy is better: a monetary authority bound by rules or discretion? For my equilibrium rate of inflation my answer was 0. For my equilibrium rate of output I got 2.5.Assume that an economy is governed by the Phillips curve π= πe – 0.5(u – 0.06), where π= (P – P–1)/P–1, π e = (P e – P–1)/P–1, and 0.06 is the natural rate of unemployment. Further assume π e = π–1. Suppose that, in period zero, π= 0.03 and πe = 0.03—that is, that the economy is experiencing steady inflation at a 3-percent rate. a. Now assume that the government decides to impose whatever demand is necessary to cut unemployment to 0.04. Suppose the government follows this policy for periods 1 through 5. Create a table of π and πe for these five periods. b. Assume that, for periods 6 through 10, the government decides to hold unemployment at 0.06. Create another table of π and πe for these five periods. Is there any reason to expect the inflation rate to go back to 0.03? c. If the government persisted in its behavior under part a, do you think the public would continue for long forming expectations according to πe = π–1? Why?
- Consider the expectations adjusted Phillips’s curve and assume that expected inflation is given by πet = πt-1. Suppose that unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate and that π=10%. The central bank decides that inflation is too high and that, starting in year t, it will maintain the unemployment rate 1% point above the natural rate until the inflation rate has decreased to 2%. (a) What is the sacrifice ratio in this economy [Hint: the sacrifice ratio is the percentage of a year’s excess unemployment needed to reduce inflation by 1%. For a Philips curve given as πet − πt −1 = −α (ut − un ), the sacrifice ratio is 1/α]? (b) Compute the rate of inflation for year t, t+1, t+2, t+3, …, t+8. (c) For how many years must the central bank keep the unemployment rate above the natural rate of unemployment? Is the implied sacrifice ratio consistent with your answer to (a)?Using the inflation-unemployment version of the Phillips curve with adaptive expectations, ifaggregate demand increasesA)workers will realize that inflation has changed in the long run but not in the short run.B)the SRPC will immediately shift to the right as workers expect higher pricesC)workers will mistakenly work less, resulting in a decrease in inflation and increase inunemploymentD)actual inflation will be less than expected inflation, resulting in workers mistakenly workingmore and unemployment falling.Time Period nominal interest rate percent Expected Inflation (Percent) Actual Inflation (Percent) Expected Real Interest Rate Actual Real Interest Rate Before increase in MS 10 2 2 Immediately after increase in MS 10 2 5 Suppose the nominal interest rate on savings accounts is 10% per year, and both actual and expected inflation are equal to 2%. The unanticipated change in inflation arbitrarily harms ______________. Now consider the long-run impact of the change in money growth and inflation. According to the Fisher effect, as expectations adjust to the new, higher inflation rate, the nominal interest rate will ______________ to per year.
- 1. An economy has the following equation for the Phillips Curve: π = Eπ − 0.5(u − 6)People form expectations of inflation by taking a weighted average of the previous two years of inflation: Okun’s law for this economy is: Eπ = 0.7π−1 + 0.3π−2 (Y −Y−1)/(Y-1)=3.0−2.0(u−u−1) Th economy begins at its natural rate of unemployment with a stable inflation rate of 5 percent. Graph the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment that this economy faces. Label the point where the economy begins as A. (Be sure to give numerical values for point A.) A fall in aggregate demand leads to a recession, causing the unemployment rate to rise 4 percentage points above its natural rate. On your graph in part (b), label the point the economy experiences that year as point B.(Be sure to give numerical values.) Unemployment remains at this high level for two years (the initial year described in part (c) and one more), after which it returns to its natural rate. Create a table showing…Define rational expectations and explain the two rational expectation theories of the business cycle?? Definition of rational expectation: ......... Rational expectations theories. ...... ......Suppose that the government in the economy of the diagram below regards 9 percent unemployment as unacceptable. If the government insists on reducing the unemployment rate from 9 percent to 7 percent, regardless of the consequences, thena. pressure will build in the economy to continuously reduce the rate of inflation.b. the long-run Phillips curve becomes horizontal, freezing the rates of inflation and unemployment.c. the inflation rate will increase but the unemployment rate will stay at 7 percent.d. in the long run the rate of unemployment remains unchanged, but inflation will likely accelerate. Give explanations for the correct one