The person says that 2173 is a prime number because it ends in the number 3, and since 3 is a prime number then that means that 2173 is a prime number. Is 2173 a prime number? What can you conclude about this person’s reasoning? Explain your answer.
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The person says that 2173 is a prime number because it ends in the number
3, and since 3 is a prime number then that means that 2173 is a prime number. Is
2173 a prime number? What can you conclude about this person’s reasoning? Explain your answer.
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- Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the beginning of each year, you put half of your money under a mattress and invest the other half in Whitewater stock. During each year, there is a 40% chance that the Whitewater stock will double, and there is a 60% chance that you will lose half of your investment. To illustrate, if the stock doubles during the first year, you will have 3750 under the mattress and 3750 invested in Whitewater during year 2. You want to estimate your annual return over a 30-year period. If you end with F dollars, your annual return is (F/5000)1/30 1. For example, if you end with 100,000, your annual return is 201/30 1 = 0.105, or 10.5%. Run 1000 replications of an appropriate simulation. Based on the results, you can be 95% certain that your annual return will be between which two values?Based on Grossman and Hart (1983). A salesperson for Fuller Brush has three options: (1) quit, (2) put forth a low level of effort, or (3) put forth a high level of effort. Suppose for simplicity that each salesperson will sell 0, 5000, or 50,000 worth of brushes. The probability of each sales amount depends on the effort level as described in the file P07_71.xlsx. If a salesperson is paid w dollars, he or she regards this as a benefit of w1/2 units. In addition, low effort costs the salesperson 0 benefit units, whereas high effort costs 50 benefit units. If a salesperson were to quit Fuller and work elsewhere, he or she could earn a benefit of 20 units. Fuller wants all salespeople to put forth a high level of effort. The question is how to minimize the cost of encouraging them to do so. The company cannot observe the level of effort put forth by a salesperson, but it can observe the size of his or her sales. Thus, the wage paid to the salesperson is completely determined by the size of the sale. This means that Fuller must determine w0, the wage paid for sales of 0; w5000, the wage paid for sales of 5000; and w50,000, the wage paid for sales of 50,000. These wages must be set so that the salespeople value the expected benefit from high effort more than quitting and more than low effort. Determine how to minimize the expected cost of ensuring that all salespeople put forth high effort. (This problem is an example of agency theory.)In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?
- A European put option allows an investor to sell a share of stock at the exercise price on the exercise data. For example, if the exercise price is 48, and the stock price is 45 on the exercise date, the investor can sell the stock for 48 and then immediately buy it back (that is, cover his position) for 45, making 3 profit. But if the stock price on the exercise date is greater than the exercise price, the option is worthless at that date. So for a put, the investor is hoping that the price of the stock decreases. Using the same parameters as in Example 11.7, find a fair price for a European put option. (Note: As discussed in the text, an actual put option is usually for 100 shares.)We are considering investing in three stocks. The randomvariable Si represents the value one year from now of $1invested in stock i. We are given that E(S1) 1.15, E(S2) 1.21, E(S3) 1.09; var S1 0.09, var S2 0.04, var S3 0.01; cov(S1, S2) 0.006, cov(S1, S3) 0.004, and cov(S2,S3) 0.005. We have $100 to invest and want to have anexpected return of at least 15% during the next year.Formulate a QPP to find the portfolio of minimum variancethat attains an expected return of at least 15%.a. Maximize Z = 6X1 + 18X2+20X3 (Don't use excel shortcut solve manually by Simplex LPP method)Sub toX1 + X2 +X3 = 6010X1 +15X2 +20X3 = 9002X1 + 3X2 +3X3≤100And X1, X2, X3 >=0
- Problem 3: Let L(x, y) be the statement “x loves y”, where the domain for both x and y consists of all people in the world. Use quantifiers to express each of the following statements.1. Everybody loves Jerry.2. Everybody loves somebody.3. There is somebody whom everybody loves.4. Nobody loves everybody.5. There is somebody whom Lydia does not love.6. There is somebody whom no one loves.7. There is exactly one person whom everybody loves.8. There are exactly two people whom Lynn loves.9. Everybody loves himself or herself.10. There is someone who loves no one besides himself or herself.Suppose that Pizza King and Noble Greek stopadvertising but must determine the price they will chargefor each pizza sold. Pizza King believes that Noble Greek’sprice is a random variable D having the following massfunction: P(D $6) .25, P(D $8) .50, P(D $10) .25. If Pizza King charges a price p1 and NobleGreek charges a price p2, Pizza King will sell 10025( p2 p1) pizzas. It costs Pizza King $4 to make a pizza.Pizza King is considering charging $5, $6, $7, $8, or $9 fora pizza. Use each decision criterion of this section todetermine the price that Pizza King should charge.A company manufactures two products. If it chargesprice pi for product i, it can sell qi units of product i,where q1 = 60 - 3p1 + p2 and q2 = 80 - 2p2 + p1. Itcosts $5 to produce a unit of product 1 and $12 to produce a unit of product 2. How many units of eachproduct should the company produce, and what pricesshould it charge, to maximize its profit? Use spreadsheet modelling in Excel
- Suppose we are borrowing $1,000 at 12% annual interestwith 60 monthly payments. Assume equal payments aremade at the end of month 1, month 2, . . . month 60. Weknow that entering into Excel the functionPMT(.01, 60, 1,000)would yield the monthly payment ($22.24).It is instructive to use LP to determine the montly payment. Let p be the (unknown) monthly payment. Each monthwe owe .01 (our current unpaid balance) in interest. Theremainder of our monthly payment is used to reduce the unpaid balance. For example, suppose we paid $30 each month.At the beginning of month 1, our unpaid balance is $1,000.Of our month 1 payment, $10 goes to interest and $20 topaying off the unpaid balance. Then we would begin month2 with an unpaid balance of $980. The trick is to use LP todetermine the monthly payment that will pay off the loan atthe end of month 60.Use the simplex method to maximize the given function. Assume all variables are nonnegative.Maximize f = 3x + 22y subject to 14x + 7y ≤ 35 5x + 5y ≤ 50 (x,y)= f=3. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.4), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Show the work on excel file. SIZE OF FIRST STATION GOOD MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET ($) ($) ($) Small 50,000 20,000 -10,000 Medium 80,000 30,000 -20,000 Large 100,000 30,000 -40,000 Very large 300,000 25,000 -160,000