We all hate to bring small change to the store. Usingrandom numbers, we can eliminate the need for change andgive the store and the customer a fair shake.a Suppose you buy something that costs $.20. How could you use random numbers (built into the cash reg-ister system) to decide whether you should pay $1.00 or nothing? This eliminates the need for change!b If you bought something for $9.60, how would youuse random numbers to eliminate the need for change?c In the long run, why is this method fair to both thestore and the customer?

We all hate to bring small change to the store. Usingrandom numbers, we can eliminate the need for change andgive the store and the customer a fair shake.a Suppose you buy something that costs $.20. How could you use random numbers (built into the cash reg-ister system) to decide whether you should pay $1.00 or nothing? This eliminates the need for change!b If you bought something for $9.60, how would youuse random numbers to eliminate the need for change?c In the long run, why is this method fair to both thestore and the customer?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter10: Introduction To Simulation Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 50P: Big Hit Video must determine how many copies of a new video to purchase. Assume that the companys...

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When you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a decision variable, such as the order quantity in the Walton model, explain how this provides a fair comparison across the different values tested.
You are considering a 10-year investment project. At present, the expected cash flow each year is 10,000. Suppose, however, that each years cash flow is normally distributed with mean equal to last years actual cash flow and standard deviation 1000. For example, suppose that the actual cash flow in year 1 is 12,000. Then year 2 cash flow is normal with mean 12,000 and standard deviation 1000. Also, at the end of year 1, your best guess is that each later years expected cash flow will be 12,000. a. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the NPV of this project. Assume that cash flows are discounted at a rate of 10% per year. b. Now assume that the project has an abandonment option. At the end of each year you can abandon the project for the value given in the file P11_60.xlsx. For example, suppose that year 1 cash flow is 4000. Then at the end of year 1, you expect cash flow for each remaining year to be 4000. This has an NPV of less than 62,000, so you should abandon the project and collect 62,000 at the end of year 1. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the project with the abandonment option. How much would you pay for the abandonment option? (Hint: You can abandon a project at most once. So in year 5, for example, you abandon only if the sum of future expected NPVs is less than the year 5 abandonment value and the project has not yet been abandoned. Also, once you abandon the project, the actual cash flows for future years are zero. So in this case the future cash flows after abandonment should be zero in your model.)
The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of rakes at a hardware store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next 30 weeks. Does this method appear to track sales well? If not, what might be the reason?
Big Hit Video must determine how many copies of a new video to purchase. Assume that the companys goal is to purchase a number of copies that maximizes its expected profit from the video during the next year. Describe how you would use simulation to shed light on this problem. Assume that each time a video is rented, it is rented for one day.
Referring to Example 11.1, if the average bid for each competitor stays the same, but their bids exhibit less variability, does Millers optimal bid increase or decrease? To study this question, assume that each competitors bid, expressed as a multiple of Millers cost to complete the project, follows each of the following distributions. a. Triangular with parameters 1.0, 1.3, and 2.4 b. Triangular with parameters 1.2, 1.3, and 2.2 c. Use @RISKs Define Distributions window to check that the distributions in parts a and b have the same mean as the original triangular distribution in the example, but smaller standard deviations. What is the common mean? Why is it not the same as the most likely value, 1.3?
Suppose you have invested 25% of your portfolio in four different stocks. The mean and standard deviation of the annual return on each stock are shown in the file P11_46.xlsx. The correlations between the annual returns on the four stocks are also shown in this file. a. What is the probability that your portfolios annual return will exceed 30%? b. What is the probability that your portfolio will lose money during the year?
The IRR is the discount rate r that makes a project have an NPV of 0. You can find IRR in Excel with the built-in IRR function, using the syntax =IRR(range of cash flows). However, it can be tricky. In fact, if the IRR is not near 10%, this function might not find an answer, and you would get an error message. Then you must try the syntax =IRR(range of cash flows, guess), where guess" is your best guess for the IRR. It is best to try a range of guesses (say, 90% to 100%). Find the IRR of the project described in Problem 34. 34. Consider a project with the following cash flows: year 1, 400; year 2, 200; year 3, 600; year 4, 900; year 5, 1000; year 6, 250; year 7, 230. Assume a discount rate of 15% per year. a. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years. b. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the beginnings of the respective years. c. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the middles of the respective years.
Rework the previous problem for a case in which the one-year warranty requires you to pay for the new device even if failure occurs during the warranty period. Specifically, if the device fails at time t, measured relative to the time it went into use, you must pay 300t for a new device. For example, if the device goes into use at the beginning of April and fails nine months later, at the beginning of January, you must pay 225. The reasoning is that you got 9/12 of the warranty period for use, so you should pay that fraction of the total cost for the next device. As before, how-ever, if the device fails outside the warranty period, you must pay the full 300 cost for a new device.
We all hate to keep track of small change. By us-ing random numbers, it is possible to eliminate the need for change and give the store and the customera fair deal. This problem indicates how it couldbe done.a. Suppose that you buy something for $0.20. Howcould you use random numbers (built into the cashregister system) to decide whether you should pay$1.00 or nothing?b. If you bought something for $9.60, how wouldyou use random numbers to eliminate the need forchange?c. In the long run, why is this method fair to both thestore and the customers? Would you personally (asa customer) be willing to abide by such a system?
4. A publisher prints copies of a popular weekly tabloid for distribution and sale. The fixed costs are $500 per print run, with each copy printed costing an additional $0.40. If C(q) is the cost function (in $) of the price of the print run as a function of copies printed, what is the formula for C(q)? Select one: a. C(q) = 500 + 0.4q b. C(q) = 500q + 0.4 c. C(q) = (500 + 0.4)q d. C(q) = 500 - 0.4q e. C(q) = 500q - 0.4 5. A hot dog vendor sells an average of 50 hot dogs during a Little League baseball game. If the sales are Normally distributed with a standard deviation of 7 hot dogs, what is the probability the vendor will sell between 45 and 65 hot dogs? Select one: a. 74.50% b. 92.36% c. 99.78% d. 174.50% e. 2.14 f. -0.71 g. 0.71
Dash and Lily Corporation wanted to raise funds for the poor. The first prizefor a raffle is P500,000 (with aprobability of 0.001) and the second prize is P250,000 (with a probability of0.003). What is a fair price to pay for a single ticket in this raffle? a. Give: what are the given information. b. Requirement: what is requirement. c. Solution: show step by step solution d. Answer: what is the final answer e. Analysis: identify the use of the result in risk management