What implications do forecast errors have for the search for ultrasophisticated statistical forecasting models?
Q: How do exponential smoothing advantages have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?
A: The advantages of exponential smoothing as a forecasting method over operating averages are as…
Q: snip
A: The Delphi method is more qualitative. The Delphi method was developed by the Rank corporation in…
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: Delphi Technique of forecasting would be appropriate to predict the demand for vacations on the…
Q: Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
A: The types of forecasting technique (survey, Delphi, averaging, seasonal, naive, trend,…
Q: What is the forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .6? 2. If we decide to…
A: ANSWER IS AS FOLLOWS:
Q: What are the similarities and differences between ridge regression and forecasting?
A: A Small Introduction about Regression Regression analysis is used to predict a continuous dependent…
Q: Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 18 15 Using the…
A: The naïve method of forecasting uses the value of the previous week as the current week's forecast.…
Q: Complete the forecasting worksheets for: Naïve Average Moving Average Weighted Moving Average…
A: Weighted Moving Average using the weights of .8, .15, and .05 ExponA using and an alpha level of .75…
Q: The moving average forecasting method is typically bestfor products:a) Functional b) Innovativec)…
A: The correct answer is option c) Mature. Moving Average formula is used to average the number of…
Q: Explain what are the forecasting process principles?
A: Forecasting is the science of forecasting what will occur in the future based on past and current…
Q: Identify the three forecasting time horizons. State anapproximate duration for each.
A: With the help of forecasting we can predict what will be happing in the future. It can be done by…
Q: Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses…
A: Time Series Data: statistic knowledge is outlined as during an amount of your time,…
Q: What is the connection between forecasting and quality control?
A: TQM can be thought of as a control framework for a client organisation that actively promotes…
Q: Think of an industry or company other than automotive that relies heavily on forecasting accuracy.…
A: Forecasting is completely based on past data, unlike predictions that are based on instinct, or…
Q: When should time series forecasting techniques be used?
A: The statistical data and, as a consequence, the projected features are analyzed using statistical…
Q: Explain why forecasts are generally wrong.
A: Forecasting is used to predict future changes or demand patterns.
Q: Using your own words, describe the drawbacks of the moving average forecasting model and the…
A: Definitions Moving average: - A forecast which is made by taking the average or weighted average of…
Q: What is a time series and the rationale for forecasting based on a time series analysis?
A: Forecasting refers to the prediction of the future based on some evidence or a strong base.…
Q: Do you think that hard rock cafe makes use of time horizons when forecasting?
A: The forecast horizon is that the duration of your time into the destiny that forecasts are to be…
Q: Clinic administrator Dana Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient numbers at the clinic for week…
A: Forecasting is a process that uses recorded data as inputs to make informed estimates that are…
Q: What th ree methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would…
A:
Q: If the Tracking Signal for your forecast was consistently positive, what could you then say this…
A: If the tracking signal of the forecast is always positive, then it is bias and consistently too low.…
Q: List the various type of analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Numerous statistical approaches are used to examine the data, which enables the data to be…
Q: Discuss when is time series forecasting used?
A: Forecasting is a strategy for forecasting future events using historical data and knowledge.
Q: Discuss the relationship between forecasting and qualitymanagement.
A: For a customer-focused company that includes all workers in quality improvement, TQM can be…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input from every…
A: Delphi method.
Q: Describe in detail what is a time series forecasting model ?
A: Forecasting is a type of prediction approach that can be used to make future judgments based on past…
Q: Explain the relationship between forecasting and quality management?
A: Total quality management (TQM) is a continual process of identifying and avoiding or eliminating…
Q: Forecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the…
A: Forecasting is that of the method by that managers make estimates about future events. It's…
Q: What is a time-series forecasting model?
A: Forecasting is an important instrument to predict the future. Every organization needsforecasting to…
Q: What benefits does exponential smoothing have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?
A: As a forecasting function, exponential smoothing has the following benefits over running averages:…
Q: Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input fromevery participant…
A: Forecasting is the way toward making forecasts of things to depend on at various times information…
Q: State the assumptions made when using a time series forecasting techniques
A: Numerous estimates are taken in statistical analysis.
Q: What are the issues associated with qualitative forecasting, and how are these overcome? Provide…
A: Qualitative forecasting is a strategy for making forecasts about an organization's funds that…
Q: Explain the distinction between short- and long-term forecasts?
A: Forecasting is a technique that enables the generation of educated forecasts by utilising historical…
Q: Can you tell the difference between "correct" and "true" when it comes to forecasting?
A: Forecasting is important in supply chain management because the production and inventory process of…
Q: Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not particularly useful as inputs to inventory and…
A: Qualitative forecasts and casual forecasts are not specifically helpful as inputs to the inventory…
Q: Explain how do exponential smoothing have benefits over shifting averages as forecasting tool
A: The merits of autoregressive moving as a prediction approach are considerable in comparison to…
Q: What effect does the number of cycles in a moving average have on the forecast's responsiveness?
A: In order to estimate potential demand, the Moving Average (MA) projection method uses the MA formula…
Q: List the analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: onsider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 15 11 18 13 Using the…
A: Given that: Week Value 1 18 2 12 3 15 4 11 5 18 6 13
Q: How do exponential smoothing have benefits over shifting.averages as a forecasting tool?
A: The benefits of exponential smoothing are as a prediction tool compared to moving averages.
Q: Forecasting can be classified into which basic types?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: State examples of industries affected by seasonality and reasons to eliminate seasonality in their…
A: To be determined: examples of industries affected by seasonality and reasons to eliminate…
Q: Explain how the technology of forecasting can be improved
A: Forecasting is a long-term and short-term activity that the company engages in on a regular basis.…
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Which qualitative forecasting technique was developed to ensure that the input from every participant in the process is weighted equally?