What is the Cumulative Sum of Forecast Error (CFE) when using the 4-period moving average technique?Group of answer choices8452326-779-723-845 Paw Patrol Inc. manufactures toys for kids from 1 to 10 years old. The summary of toy sales by month in2017 and 2018 is as follows:Dt2018April18600PeriodDemandMay18716June192352017September19400July19500October18300AugustSeptember19753November1720018320December14998October176522018JanuaryFebruary19800November1620019555December15563March19800

A moving average is a technical indicator that market analysts and investors may use to determine…

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Business

Operations Management

What is the Cumulative Sum of Forecast Error (CFE) when using the 4-period moving average technique

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 31P

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The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
During the year, Brownout Company experienced the following power outages:Number of Power Outages Per Month Number of Months 0 3 1 2 2 4 3 3 12Each power outage results in out of pocket costs of P400. For P500 per month, the company can lease an auxiliary generator to provide power during outages. If the company leases an auxiliarygenerator next year, the estimated savings (or…
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The following table represents sales data for milk (in hundred liters) sold by a grocery. Do the computations to fill out the table and answer the following questions: Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for the given time series data? Why? Naïve approach; 5-month SMA model; WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; or ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month. NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just “SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = …”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA model with weights …”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = …”. Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models above. 3. Based on your decision in Item 1, what should be the forecast for Month 11?
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Tri-County Utilities, Inc., supplies natural gas to customers in a three-county area. The company purchases natural gas from two companies: Southern Gas and Northwest Gas. Demand forecasts for the coming winter season are as follows: Hamilton County, 400 units; Butler County, 200 units; and Clermont County, 300 units. Contracts to provide the following quantities have been written: Southern Gas, 500 units; and Northwest Gas, 400 units. Distribution costs for the counties vary, depending upon the location of the suppliers. The distribution costs per unit (in thousands of dollars) are as follows: a. Develop a network representation of this problem. b. Develop a linear programming model that can be used to determine the plan that will minimize total distribution costs. c. Describe the distribution plan and show the total distribution cost. d. Recent residential and industrial growth in Butler County has the potential for increasing demand by as much as 100 units. Which supplier should…
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Read the following passage and answer the question that follows Quincy Snodgrass Enterprises—Forecasting Quincy Snodgrass is an entrepreneur and a lover of the outdoors. He has worked for various companies since he graduated college with his business administration degree in management. Over the years, he has saved every extra penny and now has the starting capital he needs; consequently, he plans to open his own business. Quincy plans to open a landscaping business. The primary services he’ll offer are grass cutting, edging, and bush trimming. Obviously, this will only provide income in the spring, summer, and early fall. Therefore, he plans to offer snow removal in the winter. His goal is to continue to provide those baseline services and expand into actual landscaping work. Quincy’s initial challenge is to develop a forecast of how many customers he’ll have each month. This is essential to determine if he needs to hire any additional labor throughout the season. Unfortunately, none…
Read the following passage and answer the question that follows Quincy Snodgrass Enterprises—Forecasting Quincy Snodgrass is an entrepreneur and a lover of the outdoors. He has worked for various companies since he graduated college with his business administration degree in management. Over the years, he has saved every extra penny and now has the starting capital he needs; consequently, he plans to open his own business. Quincy plans to open a landscaping business. The primary services he’ll offer are grass cutting, edging, and bush trimming. Obviously, this will only provide income in the spring, summer, and early fall. Therefore, he plans to offer snow removal in the winter. His goal is to continue to provide those baseline services and expand into actual landscaping work. Quincy’s initial challenge is to develop a forecast of how many customers he’ll have each month. This is essential to determine if he needs to hire any additional labor throughout the season. Unfortunately, none…
Read the following passage and answer the question that follows Quincy Snodgrass Enterprises—Forecasting Quincy Snodgrass is an entrepreneur and a lover of the outdoors. He has worked for various companies since he graduated college with his business administration degree in management. Over the years, he has saved every extra penny and now has the starting capital he needs; consequently, he plans to open his own business. Quincy plans to open a landscaping business. The primary services he’ll offer are grass cutting, edging, and bush trimming. Obviously, this will only provide income in the spring, summer, and early fall. Therefore, he plans to offer snow removal in the winter. His goal is to continue to provide those baseline services and expand into actual landscaping work. Quincy’s initial challenge is to develop a forecast of how many customers he’ll have each month. This is essential to determine if he needs to hire any additional labor throughout the season. Unfortunately, none…
The following table represents sales data for milk (in hundred liters) sold by a grocery.Do the computations to fill out the table and answer the following questions:1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.2. Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models above.3. Based on your decision in Item 1, what should be the forecast for Month 11?