The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as​ follows:                                              Year 1 2 3 4 5 Mileage 3,100 4,000 3,500 3,800 3,700 ​a) Using a​ 2-year moving​ average, the forecast for year 6​ =______ miles ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number). ​b) If a​ 2-year moving average is used to make the​ forecast, the MAD based on this​ =____miles ​(round your response to onedecimal​ place).​ (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched​ data.) ​c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted​ 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55 (the weight of 0.55 is for the most recent​ period) =________miles ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number). The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted​ 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55​=_____ miles ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).  ​(Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched​ data.)

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
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The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as​ follows:                                             
Year
1
2
3
4
5
Mileage
3,100
4,000
3,500
3,800
3,700
​a)
Using a​ 2-year moving​ average, the forecast for year 6​ =______
miles ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number).
​b)
If a​ 2-year moving average is used to make the​ forecast, the MAD based on this​ =____miles ​(round your response to onedecimal​ place).​ (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched​ data.)
​c)
The forecast for year 6 using a weighted​ 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55 (the weight of 0.55 is for the most recent​ period) =________miles ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number).
The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted​ 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55​=_____ miles ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).  ​(Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched​ data.)
​d)
Using exponential smoothing with α​=0.20 and the forecast for year 1 being
3,100​, the forecast for year 6​ =
miles ​(round your response to the nearest whole​ number).
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