You have been tasked with the development of an aggregate plan for the year ended 31December 2022. Accordingly, you have developed monthly forecasts for a range of motorcyclesas presented in Table 5.1, below.Table 5.1: The demand forecast developed for the year ended 31 December2022.MONTHJan-2022Feb-2022Mar-2022Apr-2022May-2022Jun-2022Jul-2022Aug-2022Sep-2022Oct-2022Nov-2022Dec-2022PRODUCTION DAYS DEMAND FORECAST161623212222212020201616150150250250400500600750450250150150Compute and tabulate the daily demand for each month in the table below (round off to thenearest whole number).

Demand is the quantity of a good that consumers are prepared and willing to purchase at different…

Answered: You have been tasked with the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis

Problem 2P

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Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Given the following forecast and cost information, Regular time cost $ 40.00 per unitdetermine the total cost of a plan that uses regular time Overtime cost $ 60.00 per unitproduction output of 600 units per month, overtime is subcontracting cost $ 80.00 per unitused when needed up to a maximum of 60 units per holding cost $ 10.00 per unit per monthmonth, and subcontracting is used if additional units are needed to meet the forecast.Month Forecast1 5702 6003 6304 6505 6706 690Totals
a. What is your forecast for December of Year 4, making period 1 as the starting period for the regression? b. The actual demand for period 48 was just learned to be 5,100. Add this demand to the Inputs file and change the starting period for the regression to period 2 so that the number of periods in the regression remains unchanged. How much or little does the forecast for period 49 change from the one for period 48? The error measures? Are you surprised?c. Now change the time when the regression starts to period 25 and repeat the process. What differences do you note now? What forecast will you make for period 49?
1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.
a) The demand forecast for Month 6 would be: A. 565 haircuts B. 574 haircuts C. 578 haircuts D. 584 haircuts b) With Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as the criterion, the best forecasting model for this time series data is: A. Naïve approach B. 2-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) C. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 D. Exponential Smoothing (ES) with alpha = 0.8
Product A is an assemble-to-order product. It has a lot size of 150, and currentlyhas an on-hand inventory of 110 units. There is a 2-week demand time fence and a12-week planning time fence. The following table gives the original forecast and theactual customer orders for the next 12 weeks:Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Forecast 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70Demand 83 78 65 61 49 51 34 17 11 7 0 0a. Given this information, develop a realistic master schedule, complete with ATPlogic.b. Tell how you would respond to each of the following customer order requests.Assume these are independent requests, and do not have cumulative effects.■ 20 units in week 3■ 40 units in week 5■ 120 units in week 7
There is an ongoing debate about the roles of quantitative and qualitative inputs in demand estimation and forecasting. Those in the qualitative camp argue that statistical analysis can only go so far. Demand estimates can be further improved by incorporating purely qualitative factors. Quantitative advocates insist that qualitative, intuitive, holistic approaches only serve to introduce errors, biases, and extraneous factors into the estimation task. Suppose the executive for the theater chain is convinced that any number of bits of qualitative information (the identity of the director, the film’s terrific script and rock-music sound track, the Hollywood “buzz” about the film during production, even the easing of his ulcer) influence the film’s ultimate box-office revenue. How might one test which approach—purely qualitative or statistical, provides better demand or revenue estimates? Are there ways to combine the two approaches? Provide concrete suggestions
The following table represents sales data for milk (in hundred liters) sold by a grocery.Do the computations to fill out the table and answer the following questions:1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.2. Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models above.3. Based on your decision in Item 1, what should be the forecast for Month 11?
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 7 11 7 13 12 10 13 8 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. Part 2 b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Part 4 d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed…
Table 5.1: The demand forecast developed for the year ended 31 December 2022. Month Production days Demand forecast Jan 16 150 Feb 16 150 Mar 23 250 Apr 21 250 May 22 400 Jun 22 500 Jul 21 600 Aug 20 750 Sep 20 450 Oct 20 250 Nov 16 150 Dec 16 150 1. Compute and tabulate the daily demand for each month in the table below (round off to the nearest whole number). 2. Assuming that MPQ Limited had adopted a level strategy for the year ended 31 December 2022, compute the average daily demand for the year (round off to the nearest whole number).
In a manufacturing company, a product “A” is manufactured from components “B” and “C”. Also, the component “B” is manufactured from parts “D” and “E”. Which items should be forecasted?

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