1.8.2 Weakness of Technical Analysis
• Analyst Bias: Technical analysis is not hard core science. It is subjective in nature and your personal biases can be reelected in the analysis.
• Open to Interpretation: Technical analysis is a combination of science and art and is always open to interpretation.
• Too Late: You can criticize the technical analysis for being too late. By the time the trend is identified, a substantial move has already taken place.
• Always another Level: Technical analysts always wait for another new level.
• Trader’s Remorse: An array of pattern and indicators arises while studying technical analysis. Not all the signals work.
1.9 TECHNICAL INDICATORS
The main indicators of ‘Technical Analysis” are
1. Dow Theory
2. Charts
3. Support and Resistance Level
4. Moving Average
5. Odd lot Trading
6. Short Selling Theory
7. Volume and Trade
8. Elliot Wave Theory and Oscillators and etc
Dow Theory
The technical tools are, Dow Theory, Volume of trading, short Selling, ODD lot trading, bars and line charts, Moving Average and Oscillators. The above mentioned tools are analyzed.
Dow Theory: Dow Theory divided into primary, intermediate and short term trend. The primary trend may be the broad upward and
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Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948).Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore
Technology is both a blessing and a curse. It can make the lives of people better or it can completely make everything inconvenient. Technology has gone from something that was once complex to something used on the daily. It, in fact, may be destroying and taking over society. This idea is proposed in both “By the Waters of Babylon” by Stephen Vincent Benet and “There Will Come Soft Rains” by Ray Bradbury. Bradbury, however, presents the most disturbing and cruel views on technology and society.
What I didn’t realize was that I was still missing part of the definition. The part that I was missing had to do with interpretation. An analysis is not only an evaluation, but also an interpretation of the information you evaluated. This interpretation includes what you think about your observations, what they mean, and why. When writing out an analysis, your main goal is for the reader to understand and be persuaded by your interpretation.
Cost-benefit analysis is used to help decide whether or not to continue with a project, essentially weighing the pros and cons related to benefits versus the cost of achieving the desired result. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a technique used to compare the total costs of a program/project with its benefits (Oxford, n.d.).
Both tools are very useful in their own way each. One of them shows the subjective line of research. The flowcharts despite dictating a specific order of things, so no numerically quantifiable profits or losses. Just get carried away by the power of
The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t talks about how many different statistics are used in everyday life. The book dissects the ways that people try to predict the future by look at past patterns that occur and they try to infer about the future. The book talks about how the statistics that are used by people to infer about the what will occur in the future. The Signal and the Noise does this in a good way because it uses different statistics that many people enjoy or at least know can be useful with topics ranging from sports betting and poker hands to weather and the housing market. It uses these statistics to show how certain times people can predict the future by using statistics from the past but these predictions are not always correct. The book offers many different statistics to show how predictions usually are wrong but can be correct when looking at these statistics under a different light.
Judging the information depends on one’s ability to analyze the information
The stock game was the hardest game I have ever played in. With so many things on the line such as grades, competition, and making money, I have made lots of mistakes on the way but also learned a lot of good lessons about investing and business. During the explanation before the game started, I thought it was really easy to buy, sell, short and cover stocks. However, when reality was set, there were so many choices to make from what company to buy, how much to buy, and determine the right time to sell or buy the stock. I lost about 300 dollars from my 10,000 dollars portfolio. That
There are many cognitive biases that affect the analytic process and inhibit analysts from reaching the height of their accuracy. Each of these cognitive biases affect thinking in a unique way, but there are different techniques that can be used to overcome these biases. Most of the time cognitive biases are not intentional which is why it is so important that measures are taken to reduce the effect of cognitive biases. Structured Analytic Techniques effectively reduce the effect of cognitive biases in many different ways. This paper will examine four cognitive biases and Structured Analytic Techniques that can help intelligence analysts be more accurate and less biased in their analysis.
Brandt Cornell’s paper “Is the response of analyst to information consistent with fundamental valuation?” reveals that analyst recommendations are pro cyclical. As bad news arrives and the underlying price of the firm’s stock goes down , analyst downgrade company , the opposite effect arises when good news arrives. As Cornell
This analytical method is useful in eliminating those possible outcomes or hypothesis that our biases have accepted to be true.2 This method explain the logic behind various hypotheses and can expose faulty or false information or reality’s. It helps the analysts understand the key factors of an issue and activate their critical thinking skills in regards to the issue.2
Typically, their analysis is based on learned behavior, which will influence how they interpret information and what information they will accept without further examination. These “mind-sets” compel analysts to notice what they already expect to identify. This could lead them to wrongly assimilate information or dismiss or ignore information that is conflicting to their preconceived notions. Research suggests that analysts should aggressively evaluate their mind-sets by applying regulated methodical procedures that will expose their preconceived notions and force them to further analyze their findings (USG
Immediate constituent analysis (IC analysis) was presented by American structural linguist Leonard Bloomfield in 1933 (Encyclopædia Britannica, 1998). According to him, it refers to “a system of grammatical analysis that divides sentences into successive layers, or constituents, until, in the final layer, each constituent consists of only a word or meaningful part of a word.” (Encyclopædia Britannica, 1998) With advantages and disadvantages, it makes multiple influences on linguistics. On the one hand, by revealing syntactic structures of sentences, it can facilitate the study of syntactic relations, the study of the recursiveness and creativity of language, as well as the study of syntactic ambiguity. However, on the other hand, it is difficult to employ this approach to analyze certain complex sentences in practice and to reveal certain syntactic ambiguity. This essay will introduce
The Dow Theory identifies three trends within the market- major, intermediate and minor. A major trend may last from less than a year to
There are several criteria of evaluation investment proposal and determine if it can be accepted or rejected. Those criteria that can grouped in two types: discounting criteria and non-discounting criteria. Seven ways used for evaluation of investment proposals which are:
Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement.