EUROZONE CRISIS
The Eurozone in 2012
EUROZONE CRISIS: Eurozone fracture in 2012
This paper outlines a plausible scenario in which the Eurozone fractures in 2012. Events are unlikely to follow the path precisely as described, given the complexity of the problem and the number of variables which are continually changing. That said, we feel 2012 is unlikely to end with all the current members still being part of the Eurozone. Mapping a ‘break-up’ scenario should help readers understand how fragmentation could occur and therefore assist businesses’ contingency planning. To this end the paper highlights some key events and when they are due to take place. It also identifies some key indicators to monitor which are likely to dictate
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In the second quarter, Italy suspends its debt repayments following the collapse of the Monti administration and differences with the IMF and other
Eurozone leaders.
The ECB is likely to increase liquidity provision and work with Eurozone governments to protect their banking sectors. However, Eurozone leaders remain unable to agree crucial policies in time to stem the contagion from Greek and Italian sovereign non-payments. Portugal and Spain, unable to access emergency bailout funding and with no recourse to private investors, suspend their debt repayments and also announce their intention to leave the Eurozone.
From early 2013 onwards, politics in Europe becomes more polarised and nationalistic. Those nations withdrawing from the Eurozone impose protectionist measures, in part to limit the loss of their foreign reserves. Amidst much acrimony, the EU begins the process of scaling back to a free trade agreement.
10 January 2012 | PAGE 1
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EUROZONE CRISIS: Eurozone fracture in 2012
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Key indicators in 2012:
Alarming Signs:
1. The failure of the PIIGS to get their debt auctions away in full to private buyers at sustainable interest rates
(e.g. < 5%).
2. Ratings downgrades for the French government and the EFSF, increasing investor scepticism that the
After the 1250’s the European region starts to dramatically take a landslide plunge. The economic decline of the 1250 seems to be the last straw in a long line of issues. After the economic
results of the debt. It is a look at both the factual causes and the arguments
Many Eurozone banks hold “periphery” bonds and many analysts are concerned that they do not have sufficient capital to absorb losses on their holdings of sovereign bonds should one or more Eurozone governments default or restructure their debt. The crisis has also triggered capital flight from banks in some Eurozone countries, and some banks are reportedly finding it difficult to borrow in private capital markets, causing some investors to fear a banking crisis in Europe that could have global repercussions.”
both business and personal. When borrowing funds left it deeper in debt, the government turned
The ruling elites are getting richer at the cost to the citizens. Shut up and Take It confines the conversation between the top and bottom. The Elite shouts imposing austerity to member countries. The elites are masterful, and reduced the population to nothing and nobody in the streets. In addition, they are authoritative at using cheap stories to swindle the masses. Stories of honor to be a member adding special events to disguise true intend. The elite had to create chaos for states, and as a result capitulated believing a better life in the Euro Zone. Militaries from members were often used to conquer and divide. Globalization falsely disguised under a canopy of hope and freedom; instead the elites' bankrupt countries having great debt taking out more
A government bailout is a situation in which the government offers and gives money to a business that is failing so it can prevent the consequences that can come from a business's downfall. Businesses that hire thousands of people tend to ask for these bailouts so there are not massive layoffs of their workers. This way they can continue to operate their business until their profits go back up and they are able to pay the entire bailout back. As a part of a case study I had to play the scenarios of a three different people with various backgrounds. The people had a different Ideologies regarding their views on the use of government layoffs.
In this scenario, growing inequalities and hostility between the north and the south will increase and some countries will leave the Eurozone to return to their former currencies. Bailouts will no longer be supported by the European Central Bank.
By the end of 2008, the European Union began experiencing rippling effects of the United States financial crisis. Several member countries, most notably on the southern end of the continent, faced high levels of debt and unemployment. Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, derogatively referred to as “PIIGS,” required extensive economic support from the EU in order to repay government debts and bail-out private banks. Disbursal of aid in 2010 proved successful in promoting economic recovery in some countries; however, the vast majority observed only slight economic improvement which led to doubts regarding the effectiveness of the harsh austerity measures implemented. Ireland has most clearly benefited from the financial support of the European Union as the country’s unemployment rate has dropped below ten percent and is expected to witness 4.5% GDP growth in 2016. Portugal, on the other hand, shows little fiscal improvement as evident in an unemployment rate of 13% and an expected GDP growth of only 1.6% in 2016. Although both countries faced tough financial crises in 2010, Ireland has notably outperformed Portugal in resolving the situation. The weak economy in Portugal, as well as continued fiscal hardship in the remaining “PIGS” countries, threaten the preservation of the European Union as financial inequality between the members persists.
The Eurozone is facing a serious sovereign debt crisis. Several Eurozone member countries have high, potentially unsustainable levels of public debt. Three—Greece, Ireland, and Portugal—have borrowed money from other European countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to avoid default. With the largest public debt and one of the largest budget deficits in the Eurozone, Greece is at the centre of the crisis. The crisis is a continuing interest to Congress due to the strong economic and political ties between the United States and Europe.
The economic crisis of 2008 in New York had ripple effects around the world, causing deep structural problems within the European Union to crumble the economies of several countries. These countries, known as the PIGS, are made up of Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, and collectively hold most of the sovereign debt problems of the European Union. After fast growth early in the decade, these countries were spending too much money and not securing their own banking sectors with enough capital. Soon, the debt the PIGS owed caused massive problems throughout the EU, and Germany and France had to come to the rescue of these poorly managed countries. (Greek Crisis Timeline, 1) Now, in 2012, the issue has yet to be fully resolved. Greece is still sinking, and a massive bailout for Greece's banks is required. The debate is whether Germany should continue bailing out Greece and collecting interest on its loans, or whether Greece should try to separate itself from the broader European Union, in an attempt to manage its own finances and declare bankruptcy in order to save itself from crippling interest payments. Each path offers an escape from the present situation that Greece finds itself in, but only the path of bailout results in a harmonious European Union. If Greece fragments off from the EU, then the entire union is weakened as a result. I believe that Greece should accept the terms of the bailout that Germany has provided, and should undergo several years
“Critically evaluate the roles of the main EU institutions (Council, Commission and Parliament) in the management of the continuing economic/financial crisis”
The European sovereign debt crisis, which made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties (Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim, 2012), had already badly hurt the economies in “PIIGS”, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. This financial contagion continues to spread throughout the euro area, and becomes a dangerous threat not only to European economy, but also to global economy.
Yet another concern centres on “moral hazard”—that is, the possibility that fiscally irresponsible policies by recipient countries will be effectively rewarded and thereby encouraged by bailout loans. While theoretically a serious concern, the existence of such moral hazard has not been proved.
Dr. Clark: I am writing this brief policy memo in regard to the recent monetary crisis involving certain European countries, namely Greece and Spain. The focal organization handling the issue is the EU (European Union). The EU was established on November 1, 1993 by the treaty of Masstricht. It developed a single, regionalized, market structure through a system of standardized laws that apply in each member state so that citizens, goods, capital, and services are regional rather than local. With the establishment of a common currency, the Euro, the EU is also concerned with the overall economic and fiscal health of each member country. EU banks oversee localized financial institutions, and have the legal authority to enact localized changes in order to keep currency balanced. There are also branches of the EU that focus on legal and foreign policy issues, which sometimes blend into the economic realities of globalism (Europa, 2009). The EU acts as much more than an economic modifier, though, and member nations are encouraged to participate in cultural sharing (music, the arts, etc.), religious tolerance, and of course sport. This changes the overall rubric of the EU in that it actively seeks out foreign trade and markets as a large regional economic sector, so successfully that it counts for approximately 30 percent of world trade output (The EU Single, 2009).
In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of the nature, causes, economic consequences, prevention as well as control of the European Debt crisis. A definition of the debt crisis is also provided. Recommendations on the way forward are also provided.