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Event Tree Essay

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Tayla Williams
Student ID: s3887368
Contact: tayla48095@gmail.com
Risk Assessment & Human Behaviour: VQB 5611
Assignment 3 – 17/04/17

1. Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis methods are used to determine the probability of an event by quantifying its likelihood and are shown in the form of a visual logic tree. Subsequent to an initial event occurring (e.g. ignition), Event Tree Analysis (ETA) identifies and evaluates the chain reaction of events (e.g. fire growth, flashover, etc.) for a potential scenario (e.g. smouldering cigarette on a couch). ETA is a useful method of analysis as it determines whether the initial event will cultivate into a more serious issue or if it can be adequately controlled by the fire safety systems and procedures …show more content…

There are six methods used to analyse trial design; of which are discussed as follows.
As the name suggests, the Comparative approach compares the effectiveness of the trial design against a Deemed-To-Satisfy (DTS) design in an attempt to prove that it performs just as well, if not better.
The Absolute approach calls for the trial design and DTS to achieve the same results, in whichever method preferred, as pre-determined by the acceptance criteria.
Qualitative analysis has a logic-based approach where appropriate references and experience are favoured over figures.
Alternatively, Quantitative analysis is a more commonly practised method as it relies on testing, simulations, calculations, formulas and any other appropriate forms of data to produce a representative figure.
Deterministic analysis, much alike quantitative analysis, draws its methodologies from scientific and empirical theories that are based on physical relationships and are often conveyed with respect to time.
The Probabilistic approach is based primarily on risk (Event and Fault Tree Analysis), where a number of scenarios are considered and their likeliness is …show more content…

In order to evaluate common fire hazards within a building and the risks presented by these, it is essential to have an understanding of where fires start, and what causes them in varying occupancy types. The best process to fulfil this aim is to review existing statistical data. Existing data is a vital tool in analysing areas or functions of a building which have the greatest risk to occupants. In particular, those functions or areas of a building having higher fatality rates historically in buildings of a similar type should be treated with special consideration (i.e. Class 2, Kitchen). It is important to be familiar with these statistics as they play a key role in predicting outcomes of future fires. Using this knowledge, fire safety engineers can identify patterns and high risk factors; and apply appropriate building fire safety systems in an attempt to reduce fire

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