Tayla Williams
Student ID: s3887368
Contact: tayla48095@gmail.com
Risk Assessment & Human Behaviour: VQB 5611
Assignment 3 – 17/04/17
1. Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis methods are used to determine the probability of an event by quantifying its likelihood and are shown in the form of a visual logic tree. Subsequent to an initial event occurring (e.g. ignition), Event Tree Analysis (ETA) identifies and evaluates the chain reaction of events (e.g. fire growth, flashover, etc.) for a potential scenario (e.g. smouldering cigarette on a couch). ETA is a useful method of analysis as it determines whether the initial event will cultivate into a more serious issue or if it can be adequately controlled by the fire safety systems and procedures
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There are six methods used to analyse trial design; of which are discussed as follows.
As the name suggests, the Comparative approach compares the effectiveness of the trial design against a Deemed-To-Satisfy (DTS) design in an attempt to prove that it performs just as well, if not better.
The Absolute approach calls for the trial design and DTS to achieve the same results, in whichever method preferred, as pre-determined by the acceptance criteria.
Qualitative analysis has a logic-based approach where appropriate references and experience are favoured over figures.
Alternatively, Quantitative analysis is a more commonly practised method as it relies on testing, simulations, calculations, formulas and any other appropriate forms of data to produce a representative figure.
Deterministic analysis, much alike quantitative analysis, draws its methodologies from scientific and empirical theories that are based on physical relationships and are often conveyed with respect to time.
The Probabilistic approach is based primarily on risk (Event and Fault Tree Analysis), where a number of scenarios are considered and their likeliness is
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In order to evaluate common fire hazards within a building and the risks presented by these, it is essential to have an understanding of where fires start, and what causes them in varying occupancy types. The best process to fulfil this aim is to review existing statistical data. Existing data is a vital tool in analysing areas or functions of a building which have the greatest risk to occupants. In particular, those functions or areas of a building having higher fatality rates historically in buildings of a similar type should be treated with special consideration (i.e. Class 2, Kitchen). It is important to be familiar with these statistics as they play a key role in predicting outcomes of future fires. Using this knowledge, fire safety engineers can identify patterns and high risk factors; and apply appropriate building fire safety systems in an attempt to reduce fire
Inherently the fire service operates in high-risk environments to facilitate the role of preserving life safety and property conservation. How these incidents are managed and safeguarded by our administration
The failure to remove any debris from the fire escape or exit constitutes a fire hazard. Any obstruction on or to any fire escape or exit could jeopardize the safety of my family and any others during a fire. In case of a fire, other people or firefighters may be blocked, injured or death by the debris. The seriousness of a fire at night can trip in the dark over unseen objects that is heavy and hard to push or remove of any objects that cause delay of trying to escape a fire especially mobile homes light up in seconds from a home that is made from wood structure.
For years if not decades, firefighters have responded to a reported structure fire that turned out to be a fully involved single room. This fire scenario requires a core set of fire tactics and skills to control and extinguished the fire, but is it this simple? Perhaps twenty years it may have been, but new dangers are lurking in every scenario and may have detrimental outcomes for unsuspecting and unaware firefighters and victims. The National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST) agency along with the Underwriters Laboratory (UL) have been conducting research to understand fire behavior and fire dynamics. This research is providing firefighters with new information about how and why
Fire protection engineering, or the application of science and engineering to protect people and their environment from fire, has been around for centuries. The problem with advancements in this field is that they are preventative and, if ahead of their time, often seen as unnecessary. As a result, they are usually not considered or implemented until after severe tragedy has struck. A prime example of this is also the first recorded use of fire protection engineering. In AD 64, Emperor Nero had regulations drawn up that required fireproof materials used in the external walls to the city. This, of course, happened only after an estimated seventy percent of Rome was lost to fire. More noticeable regulations happened
The method is adequately described? The method is clear and understandable and they have mentioned everything in their method. The design is adequately described it explains of what need to be done and how it should be processed.
The design of the SRR is a quantitative study conducted via randomized control trials (RCT). In
The company can also ensure the installment of fire extinguishers and fire exit doors within the firm’s premises to create better channels of evacuation during fire outbreaks. In addition, smoke detectors and alarms should also be installed to signify and create warnings in case of such.
A/B testing is extremely goal-oriented. Before launching an A/B test, we must first decide on the outcome we hope to achieve. The goal might sound something like this:
The 2 numerical experiments geometries for named NA & NB as per Figures 2.2 and 2.3. There are 2 openings of (5x5 m) at the 1st floor for air inlet, and 8 extraction fans with discharge capacity 20 m3/s each located at the smoke reservoir. Each floor has a (10x60 m) floor plate on both sides with central opening forming the atrium and the smoke reservoir. The experiment NA is a 5 floor atrium of 30m high and NB is a 11 floor atrium of 60 m high. The geometry of the model named P.M is as shown in Figure (2.4). the fire source is heat flux at one location of the fire outbreak.Mobile floors were located in the atrium. The fire size was five MW [10].
The ETA uses forward, bottom-up looking logic to induce the consequences from an event (Bill Vesely, n.d.). The ETA is also described as a bottom-up inductive method that analyses specific information using general information (CGE, 2016).
Risk is an uncertain, unreliable state or condition that, if it occurs, has an effect on project goals. Risk management is an indispensable part of successful project management. Risk management is the art and science of anticipating and planning for future uncertain events and the objective is to understand and mitigate or control risks. Failure mode effect analysis is a structured analysis technique which defines, identifies and rejects probable failures, disasters, and errors at component, subsystem and system levels [1]. The main motto behind FMEA is to identify the likely failure modes, establish a cause- effect relationship with the failure mode, and enumerate the accompanying risk. The analysis provides a tool to correct the most prominent failure modes that effect the system most.[1.1] FMEA is being used in a wide range of industries like automation ,aviation ,aerospace, electronics, nuclear, mechanical, and chemical industries.
The Multilinear Events Sequencing (MES) as mentioned in the relevant chapter of the book acts as an alternative to the ECF charts. The MES method of analysis examines the conditions that led to an accident. However it examines the accident as a part of successful and failed tasks that executed right before the accident. The MES approach allows the investigator
Having to choose between quantitative or qualitative design to generalize the results of my research, which on would I choose? I would choose quantitative, because of the fact that it is used for obtaining information about the world. Hard science, test theory, and statistical analysis (QUALITATIVE RESEARCH DESIGNS, n.d.).
This research paper will identify the strength and weaknesses of all three techniques and an opinion on which method is preferred. In the last section of the report, I will examine an accident scenario and conduct an investigation using the Fault Tree Analysis method.
ISO: 29119 and ISEB / ISTQB standards delineate this activity as two distinctive stages of testing: