First of all, we have encountered one major problem that is how to interpret a neural network given its black box characteristics. We really wanted to try ourselves giving interpretation to our results so that we dug into the existing literature and found out a very interesting research paper written by Garson in 1991. In « Illuminating the black box: a randomization approach for understanding variable contributions in artificial neural networks », Olden and al. describes Garson’s algorithm very concisely so that we were able to create a user-defined function on Python that replicates the method. The interpretation of the method is provided below. The outputs of the different algorithms in the context of our study are the following: …show more content…
We don’t know the influence direction of the variable (given the PCA black-box transformation and Garson’s output) but we can formulate hypotheses on the fact that value companies tend to beat the market more often than growth companies. Dividend yield and EVtoEBITDA that are our 2nd and 3rd most relevant variables for Neural Nework output also support this previous fact high dividend yield paying companies characterize generally value companies, while the EVtoEBITDA ratio characterize the relative price of a company since it returns how many times an investor is willing to buy the EBITDA (Earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of a company when he purchases a share of the company. An investor that invests in high EVtoEBITDA companies has generally good growth prospects views regarding the recurrent earnings of the company. Finally, the factor size is the 4th most relevant factor that affects our output and this fact is also supported by Fama and French literature: portfolios formed over small capitalization companies tend to out-perform portfolios formed over big capitalization companies over time. It is interesting to note that this feature is an output of the
Fama and French’s three factor model attempts to explain the variation of stock prices through a multifactor model that includes a size factor and BE/ME factor in addition to the beta risk factor. Fama-French model essentially extended the CAPM (which breaks up cause of variation of stock price into systematic risk which is non-diversifiable and idiosyncratic risk which is diversifiable) by introducing these two additional factors. Fama and French find that stocks with high beta didn’t have consistently higher returns than stocks with low beta and this indicates that beta was not a useful measure under their model. Their model is based on research findings that sensitivity of movements of the size and BE/ME factor constituted risk, and
© The Authors JCSCR. (2012). A Comparative Study on the Performance. LACSC – Lebanese Association for Computational Sciences Registered under No. 957, 2011, Beirut, Lebanon, 1-12.
After becoming familiar with the topic we had to create a program. Part of the code again was provided but we had to modify it in order to obtain the specific output instructed. I have to tell you this time I had some questions and frustrations writing the code,
In the following discussion of how I performed each task, I will explain the reasoning for my research.
These changes in prices imply the power of growth rate’s assumption over stock price because “It was growth that drew attention to the brand. It was growth that propelled the stock offering. It was growth that drove the stock price to ever greater heights.” When the growth rate is expected to increase significantly, value of the firm is increased tremendously and so is its stock price. Both the enterprise value of the firm and its stock price change in the same direction with the change in growth rate estimates.
The three techniques mentioned above will be discussed in more details in question 4 below.
As capital markets analysts, it is our sole duty to ensure the happiness of our clients and investors through rigorous financial models of a particular company’s stock for the purpose of forecasting its future trends, and ultimately leading to a recommendation of whether that particular stock should be bought or sold. In the general sense, a successful long-term investment strategy involves the following characteristics: selecting a comprehensible investment, investing early and taking appropriate risks, establishing a cash-flow plan, making stocks the central focus while also taking into account diversification, and achieving an effective balance by investing in bond funds for a safety net. It is also imperative to use tax advantaged investment
Although CastleKeep’s Low PE portfolio has outperformed the market in the past, recent performance has not been satisfactory: a cumulative 20.57% gain over the S&P 500 from 8/27/2012 to 10/1/2015 has become 6.37% of underperformance as of 5/31/2017. Further, the portfolio experiences significant fluctuations in its number of holdings. In the nine months from 8/29/2016 to 5/31/2017, the portfolio grew from 17 stocks to a high of 102 companies in April. To improve performance and limit both the number of stocks in the portfolio and the size of fluctuations in holdings, I tested five different changes to the Low PE strategy.
I will then compare the methods in terms of speed of convergence and ease of use with hardware/software
In this paper, provide a rationale for the U.S. publicly traded company that has been selected, indicating the significant factors driving your decision as a financial manager. Determine the profile of
During the research, MATLAB dominated to produce outcomes. However, it functions more on mathematical calculation,
These two methods can be broken down into more detail by using Table II. A few
To meet the needs of this project, we used a lot of situations similar methods. I'll analysis the advantages and disadvantages of each method.
A lot of criticism on the CAPM has arisen over the last decades. One finding by Basu in 1977 is often used by opponents of the model in order to take down the foundation of the CAPM. Basu[3] found that stocks with a low price –earnings ratio, called value stocks, tend to outperform stocks with a high price-earnings ratio, named growth stocks. As the CAPM only allows for fundamental risk to explain excess returns on stocks, the finding that stocks from companies with high fundamentals (earnings, sales, dividends) relative to price outperformed growth stocks was in contradiction with the classical CAPM.