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Internet Field Trip

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Assignment #2: Internet Field Trip
Forecasting Methods
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream …show more content…

Each is an expert in his own discipline, and it is through the synthesis of these opinions that a final forecast is obtained. One method of arriving at a consensus forecast would be to put all the experts in a room and let them "argue it out". This method falls short because the situation is often controlled by those individuals that have the best group interaction and persuasion skills. A better method is known as the Delphi technique. This method seeks to rectify the problems of face-to-face confrontation in the group, so the responses and respondents remain anonymous. The classical technique proceeds in well-defined sequence. In the first round, the participants are asked to write their predictions. Their responses are collated and a copy is given to each of the participants. The participants are asked to comment on extreme views and to defend or modify their original opinion based on what the other participants have written. Again, the answers are collated and fed back to the participants. In the final round, participants are asked to reassess their original opinion in view of those presented by other participants. The Delphi method general produces a rapid narrowing of opinions. It

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