Assignment #2: Internet Field Trip
Forecasting Methods
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream
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Each is an expert in his own discipline, and it is through the synthesis of these opinions that a final forecast is obtained. One method of arriving at a consensus forecast would be to put all the experts in a room and let them "argue it out". This method falls short because the situation is often controlled by those individuals that have the best group interaction and persuasion skills. A better method is known as the Delphi technique. This method seeks to rectify the problems of face-to-face confrontation in the group, so the responses and respondents remain anonymous. The classical technique proceeds in well-defined sequence. In the first round, the participants are asked to write their predictions. Their responses are collated and a copy is given to each of the participants. The participants are asked to comment on extreme views and to defend or modify their original opinion based on what the other participants have written. Again, the answers are collated and fed back to the participants. In the final round, participants are asked to reassess their original opinion in view of those presented by other participants. The Delphi method general produces a rapid narrowing of opinions. It
A consultative style encourages discussion with the team; the leader presents the situation or problem and may possibly suggest a provisional decision. They then invite discussion about it and get suggestions and ideas, the leader then decides. Positives of this style include group synergy ‘none of use is as clever as all of us’, and acknowledgment that the team has something to contribute to the decision-making process. Disadvantages of this style could include slower decision making due to consultation, and the expectation of the team or individuals that they will always be consulted.
Groupthink was created by Irving Janis in 1972. (Shore, 2010, p.3) He created this method to prevent teams from making bad decisions. Irving Janis went to Yale and began his research on groupthink there. At Yale, he researched why a team could make such an excellent decision one time and a horrible one the next time. (Shore, 2010, p.3) Since groupthink was created, it has been used in many instances without even knowing about it. Such as, the Cuban missile crisis, France’s defeat in the 1940 campaign, and the Challenger space shuttle incident.
Consensus ( a form of group agreement for a decision) is used to make many decisions, such as regulations and guidelines. Individuals may become accustomed to and trust decision made by a group. Depending on the person who is delivering the message impacts gaining acceptance. Some people find security
Each of my team members focused on becoming respective category “experts”, but we were all vocal and engaged in the decisions made throughout each round. Decision ideas or prospective planning processes were either pitched prior to our bi-weekly meeting of in the beginning of the meeting and discussed as a team.
Descriptors: Making forecast of future visions, prefer to consider a variety of possibilities, likes to fill the gap between present and future possibilities; SQ Competency- Influence: I can anticipate future possibilities for others who are considering an idea that I have, after putting them at ease.
Another way to avoid issues within deliberating groups is through averages. Taking a statistical average response or answer is better than a group deliberating on an issue. It takes the emotions and flaws that comes from being human out of the equation and just focuses on logic. In most groups taking the average might be the best way to go. When responses are taken without deliberation, but statistics people are more inclined to vote based on what they know, and not on the feelings or views of others. The average of these responses has been found to, in many cases, be better than any individual.
To add on to what Rachel said, groupthink can also occur if the leader is well respected or persuasive. It does have it pros and cons. If used properly the group can come to a solution with everyone contributing. It gives everyone of a sense if worth because they contributed. A con can be peer pressure as when everyone agrees on one solution. This leads mental inefficiency and decrease in moral judgement. As some patients may just go with everyone says in order to avoid conflict. If you want to avoid groupthink then you can have an outsider come in and question the views of the members or or assign the role of critical evaluator to each member of the group.
Economics is often called the "science of decision making." The decisions that economists analyze range from personal decisions such as how big a pizza to order or whether to buy or lease a new car to the decisions the federal government makes about things like the size of our military. Economists use information about these, and other decisions, to develop indicators that can be used to determine the health of our economy. Just as a physician relies on indicators such as temperature, blood pressure and heart rate to determine the health of a patient, economists use indicators like gross domestic product growth, the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation to predict our
A group discussion will commence if there is to be a dispute or disagreement on a subject. The members involved with the argument shall thoroughly explain or state their side of a given argument. The remaining members shall then vote on a single side or form a compromise.
Achieving good outcomes requires that individuals with different strengths, weaknesses, and perspectives come together to arrive at consensus. Several tools have been created to help your group get started, get organized, and stay on
The discussion is an open-process, meaning that the decision making is done amongst the group members, not just the leader. Unlike an authoritative leader, the leader of this group allows the members to be a part of his or her final say. By doing this, it helps to keep everyone on the same page and moving forward in the same direction.
With the potential of having many opinions within the group, it can be difficult and time costly to ultimately reach a consensus. As individuals, we are all rhetoricians and have different methods of communication. When it comes to discussing our opinions and persuading group members of our ideas, arguments are sometimes created because of the diversity within the group. What matters is whether the argument is productive or not. “While there are many unproductive arguments, others generate some of the most creative joint thinking we ever achieve together” (Mercer, 74). Unfortunately, in the case of groupthink, arguments tend to be avoided at all costs.
Dairy farmers work hard to bring fresh and wholesome milk products to the marketplace. Most farms are family-owned. As active members of their communities, farm families take pride in maintaining the environment. That means preserving the land where they live and work and protecting the quality of the air and water they share with neighbors. More importantly, it means providing the best care for their cows, which are the lifeblood of their business.
Voting creates a situation when a majority and minority groups are the participants. The idea will be chosen if the majority supports it by ignoring the concerns of a minority group. This situation can stimulate conflict because minority group will be expected to accept the decision, even if it is against their convictions. The majority will choose the decision that is in their own interests by ignoring the minority rather than looking for another solution that would suit all. Consensus decision making is a well thought and dynamic way of reaching the agreement between all members of a group. This group is committed to finding solutions that everyone actively supports instead of simply voting for an idea and making the majority of the group
After the virtual field trips and seeing how everything was. During these tragic times, people losing their jobs, homelessness, and starvation to death. Financially, it was only able to get help if you were fortunate enough to know someone in the business, like a commissioner. The virtual field trip was interesting. A few of the programs caught my attention than the others. The SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) was created to help farmers. There was more money for consumers to buy more agricultural products. The WPA (Works Program Administration) helped people get back to work when they were unemployed. Those programs literally changed the lives of so many people.