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Market Analysis : Futures Market

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Part One: Futures Market Analysis The market that I was following was the corn futures market for July of 2017. All of my data in regards to futures prices by date can be found at barchart.com. For the purposes of this report, you can view the summarization of this market by viewing the graph titled “Futures Prices for July Corn 2017” attached here on the right. As you can see this market has truly been anything but stable since January 16, 2017. As you look at the graph over this two and a half month time span, you notice three general trends. The first being that from the beginning of this analysis, January 16, up until February 15 where the market, overall, was on an upward trend excluding the last week of January. From there, after it…show more content…
I’ve read many follow up articles on this issue, but none stood out like the one reporting the potential of this armyworm reaching the Mediterranean and Asia. This article from agweb.com, titled “Alien Armyworm Invading Africa May Reach Asia, Mediterranean,” reported signs of the armyworm spreading and potentially affecting more acres of corn. Combined these to article express the upward trend in the market during this time. However, we have yet to explain that brief plummet in this trend that happened during the last week of January. This plummet can be briefly explained by the likes of another article from agweb.com, titled “The 20% Problem.” This article touches on the scare of the taxes that Trump wants to put on trade with Mexico. It discusses how Americans are afraid that Mexico will no longer want to trade corn with us and thus leave us with a higher supply of corn. This is the exact opposite scenario that the armyworm presented, as higher supply with the same relative demand results in lower prices. Moving forward to our next big trend, which lasted from February 15th until March 27th, showed an overall decrease in prices for this market. This downward trend, is credited mostly to the Trump and Mexico trade talks that I previously discussed. However, much more about these talks began to surface during this time. While reading many articles about this issue, most of them tend to
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