Abstract— Deregulation of the electrical power industry raises many necessary problems and challenges across the grid. Price forecasting in electricity market plays a key role in providing the solution to these problems faced by electrical energy industry. This paper presents the performance analysis of various neural networks (NN) for short term price forecasting. Several NN models are trained and tested on the half-hourly data from Australian Energy Market and their performances have been compared. Overall findings suggest that the value of mean absolute percentage Error (MAPE) in the case of 3-Layered cascaded neural network (CNN) is better than other proposed models. Keywords— Short term price forecasting, Cascaded Neural Network, …show more content…
The paper has been divided into 5 parts. Part II presents the summary of various neural networks used. Part III consists of the selection of data and error analysis. Results of simulation are discussed in Part IV. Part V concludes the paper and presents ideas on future work. II. OVERVIEW OF ANN ARCHITECTURES 5 neural network architectures have been used to perform short term price forecasting in this paper. Figure 1 shows the most commonly used architecture that is feed forward network. It contains 1 output and 1 hidden layer. Figure 2 shows cascaded network with the input cascaded to the output layer. Recurrent network architectures have a feedback path from hidden layer to the input layer as shown in Figure 3. Figure 4 represents a 3-layered feed forward network which contains 1 output and 2 hidden layers. The 3- layered cascaded network is shown in Figure 5 with the input cascaded to the output layer. Neurons are the fundamental processing elements of artificial neural networks, they operate in parallel. The essential components of ANN are: i. set of weights between input and adder ii. an adder for summing input signals iii. activation function for limiting the output of a neuron. [6] & [7]. By altering the weight values, the ANNs are capable of learning. The artificial neural network models used in this paper are two-layered feed-forward
This essay will detail the impact of EU liberalisation policy on the UK energy industry and relate this to a previous sample of a group of suppliers. This essay will discuss industry supplier concentration, oligopoly and monopolistic competition, the EU competition commission and potential single markets which are not yet subject to scrutiny by the competition commission.
Neurons are information- processing units in the central nervous system that receive and transmit information. It is made up of an axon, dendrites and a cell body. The nucleus and cytoplasm are contained in the cell body. The axon starts from the cell body, dividing into smaller branches and then ends at the nerve terminals. The dendrites also branch from the cell body, receiving information from the other neurons. Axons from other neurons forms
Duke Energy is a natural monopoly. So, they don’t have much competition. The prices that utilities charge consumers are regulated by the government, which is called the rate of return. A Rate of Return is a form of price setting regulation where governments determine the fair price which is allowed to be charged by a monopoly(Investopia). The government does this to stabilize the interests for consumers and the utility companies by making sure that rates are high enough to deliver dependable services to consumers and to offer a adequate return on capital for Duke Energy and it’s industry peers. Subsequently, the rates are not so high that the consumers can’t afford the prices and ends up being unlawful.
In the 1920s, there was an increase in bank credit and loans. Confident in the potency of the U.S. economy, the stock market became a one way bet. Many consumers borrowed money to buy shares. Firms took out more loans for expansion. Because people took on so much debt, it meant they became more vulnerable to a change in confidence. When that change came in the form of the 1929 crash, those who had borrowed money were left exposed. Moreover, rush to sell shares trying to remedy their debts.
In 2016, there were 17.55 million cars sold in the US and electric vehicles (EVs) made up less than 1%, accounting for 150,000 vehicles, – up from 17,500 sales in 2012. EV’s have been slow to capture market share, although their growth may allude to a tipping point in the near future.
Natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy, rising to the occasion as an alternative to other fossil fuels such as coal because it burns cleaner. As the oil reserves in many parts of the world are being depleted, the availability of a viable alternative such as natural gas is becoming increasingly important. So too is the lure of the future possibility of energy independence for countries both developed and developing.
To improve our predictions, particularly for volatility part, one-step ahead rolling predictions were computed, and its prediction vs actual return plot is illustrated below:
The U.S. Energy Sector is one of the most critical infrastructures, essential for the functionality of the U.S. as we know it. Why is that you might ask. This is because it provides support and keeps all the other critical infrastructures running. Without the Energy Sector the country might as well shut down and be of no use. With the energy sector affected, there would be immediate panic and a visible effect on the economy and its people. So, let’s dive in, what is the Energy Sector all about?
Consolidated has a few problems with their inventory control. They have a purchasing agent doing periodic checks of their inventory without reviewing their history and the demand. The lack of a computer inventory system is another problem that Consolidated must address. To design a system for consolidated the company needs to make some changes to its structure and organization.
Shale revolution started about ten years ago due to technological developments such horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The increasing exploitation of shale oil significantly affected the oil market. In this report, WTI oil price was predicted over the next five years using historical data. A discussion of major factors that historically affected oil prices is presented. Historical events were linked to current and expected future events to evaluate the predicted prices. To further evaluate the forecasted prices, they were compared to the predicted prices by the Economy Forecast Agency.
We first predict the annual demand for the year 1972 based on trend for 4 months of 1972 based on corresponding months of 1971.
For my paper, I wanted to analyze the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and evaluate patterns in trading. As an investor, one of the fundamental measures that I use is the tendency of commodities to follow seasonal patterns due to the nature of planting and harvesting periods, supply/demand, and general weather patterns which all impact the price of commodities. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence the effect in investment returns for different markets.
As BlueWater Power merged, changes were also occurring in Ontario’s energy markets that caused some issues. The deregulation of the market opened up many opportunities for the company; however, it first had to overcome many obstacles. For example, BlueWater had to overcome the challenges associated with the large scale merger of six local utilities. Another issue was that they had very limited IT resources throughout the deregulation process. Finally, they had to upgrade their outdated system. These were the obstacles present throughout the merger during Ontario 's deregulation of energy markets.
The vector autoregression (VAR) model is one of the most successful, flexible, and easy to use models for the analysis of multivariate time series. It is a natural extension of the univariate autoregressive model to dynamic multivariate time series. The VAR model has proven to be especially useful for describing the dynamic behavior of economic and financial time series and for forecasting. It often provides superior forecasts to those from univariate time series models and elaborate theory-based simultaneous equations models. Forecasts from VAR models are quite flexible because they can be made conditional on the potential future paths of specified variables in the model.