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The Deregulation Of The Electrical Power Industry

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Abstract— Deregulation of the electrical power industry raises many necessary problems and challenges across the grid. Price forecasting in electricity market plays a key role in providing the solution to these problems faced by electrical energy industry. This paper presents the performance analysis of various neural networks (NN) for short term price forecasting. Several NN models are trained and tested on the half-hourly data from Australian Energy Market and their performances have been compared. Overall findings suggest that the value of mean absolute percentage Error (MAPE) in the case of 3-Layered cascaded neural network (CNN) is better than other proposed models. Keywords— Short term price forecasting, Cascaded Neural Network, …show more content…

The paper has been divided into 5 parts. Part II presents the summary of various neural networks used. Part III consists of the selection of data and error analysis. Results of simulation are discussed in Part IV. Part V concludes the paper and presents ideas on future work. II. OVERVIEW OF ANN ARCHITECTURES 5 neural network architectures have been used to perform short term price forecasting in this paper. Figure 1 shows the most commonly used architecture that is feed forward network. It contains 1 output and 1 hidden layer. Figure 2 shows cascaded network with the input cascaded to the output layer. Recurrent network architectures have a feedback path from hidden layer to the input layer as shown in Figure 3. Figure 4 represents a 3-layered feed forward network which contains 1 output and 2 hidden layers. The 3- layered cascaded network is shown in Figure 5 with the input cascaded to the output layer. Neurons are the fundamental processing elements of artificial neural networks, they operate in parallel. The essential components of ANN are: i. set of weights between input and adder ii. an adder for summing input signals iii. activation function for limiting the output of a neuron. [6] & [7]. By altering the weight values, the ANNs are capable of learning. The artificial neural network models used in this paper are two-layered feed-forward

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