The Greece Crisis ? Tragedy or Opportunity?
Ram Subramonian (Buckeye Cohort), FT MBA ?17
How did Greece get into this difficult situation? Whose fault was it?
Greece?s affair with the Euro began with huge hopes when it joined the multi-national currency zone in 2001. The, it went horribly wrong after that. At its core, the problems that face Greece today are to do with an economy reeling in debt and low productivity and in which, revenues don?t offset the massive piles of debt. So how did Greece get into this difficult situation? Who is to blame?
A deeper reading of the case reveals that a host of factors (some of them rooted in Greece?s somewhat turbulent past) led to the difficult situation it finds itself in today. In this analysis, I will classify the factors into four broad categories based on the PEST model:
Political Factors:
Tensions between the left and right wing politicians leading to a military coup, which undid many of the benefits that were reaped due to the fiscally and monetarily conservative policies of the 1950s
Populist policies that included increasing government spending, nationalizing companies and government interference in the Bank of Greece, led to public debt rising to 89% of the GDP in 1990
No political will to reign in public spending (increasing retirement age and simplifying Greece?s complex pension system)
Economic Factors:
Huge structural problems existed in the Greece economy. The World Bank?s Doing Business Report ranked Greece 109 out of
The Troika, made up of the International Monetary Fund, European Commissions and the European Central Bank have the most to lose in this debt crisis as they own 78% of Greek debt. With so much to lose we have seen European “bailout” agreements that mostly front the Greek government more money coupled with crippling austerity in an effort to “rebuild” the economy. Austerity discourages growth as it cuts the spending of the government who is by far the biggest spender in the economy. The effects of austerity can be devastating, but the true effects are often hidden beneath the messages we get from mainstream news sources. The stereotype of the Greek people as lazy and tax evading has desensitized the public and has made austerity seem like more of a sensible option. The media messages have made strict austerity measures seem justified and in effect have hegemozined the Greek people.
The country adopted the Euro in 2001, three years after many other EU countries had already done so, due to budget deficits the country was going through whilst under the drachma (Buchanan, 2015). As a result of their adoption of the Euro, they experienced a period of economic growth from 2001-2007, but many economists deemed it “unsustainable” due to the country taking out cheap loans through the EU (Buchanan, 2015). In 2008, when the global market crashed, Greece was unable to climb out of debt, as unlike in the past, where it could simply print more money, due to them being under the Euro, which is controlled by the European Central Bank, they were unable to do so. As a result, unemployment skyrocketed in the country, reaching heights of 25% (Buchanan, 2015). Following the beginning of the debt crisis, the number of terror incidents spiked from 18 in 2007 to 118 in 2009 (START, 2016a). As many domestic terror organizations in Greece are anti-capitalist, they likely blamed the foreign corporations and banks for the financial crisis and attacked their property as a result. When Greece was bailed out twice, once in 2010 and again in 2012, it unfortunately did not fix the problem as the money the country was given was simply turned around and used to pay off international debts rather than stimulate the economy (Buchanan, 2015). This failure to protect the investments of the Greek people may have led to another spike in incidents in 2013 (START,
Where they had not yet adopted the euro nor ascended into the union, Greece's public service sector (though accounting for half the countries GDP) was seen to seriously hinder any efforts to increase economic growth. But since accession, rapid mobilization of the economy has started to route out the stitches in the corrupt service sector (most reform has been in recent years though). But rapid economic reform didn't come directly after accession, for it wasn't until recently that Greece started better allocating EU subsidies. Until the country had finally set out to reform its poorly structured civil service sector, much of the subsidies were seen to be wasted on remedial government plans and initiatives such as increased electorate pay. Abuse of subsidies was recorded up until the early 90s, but since then Greece has seen considerable returns in foreign investments, and a marginal decrease in both the national debt and inflation rates . To better illustrate Greece's economic standing today, one might take note of the fact that the country is now in a position to distribute large amounts of aid (E.g., Bosnia- Herzegovina) while slowly relying less and less on EU subsidies. Many also believe that Greece's poor economic strategies in early years should serve as a lesson for future Balkan members awaiting accession into the EU as well.
The Greek people are suffering while trying to keep their jobs to pay for the rising taxes. With an unemployment rate of over 60%, the youth even have a difficult time finding jobs to help their families. Being unemployed is not only a rough situation to be in with no money is coming in, there is more to it, “The longer a person is unemployed, the less employable they become. Re-entering the workforce also becomes more difficult and more expensive.” (Rodgers 9). Not only that, but people in Greece lose their health insurance after being out of work for over 2 years. The unemployment factor is a big effect on the Greek people because of the
The article “How Germany Prevailed in the Greek Bailout” discusses Germany’s successes financially in comparison to most other (19 countries) in Europe. Although Germany has such success others see the country as a bully almost due to their militaristic background even though they have come to the aid of Greece and helped. Many other European countries are hesitant about Greece receiving aid considering the countries past failures financially. This is not the first time the country has been in debt and undoubtedly will not be the last. Since the economy fell in 2008 Greece’s unemployment rate is about 22% which is double the U.S. Due to an imbalance in European countries where some are creditors and others debtors it is difficult to fix this
Greece is one of many countries that have had its vicissitudes that have occurred frequently throughout history. There have been multiple leaders, wars, debts, and losses that have been recorded through history. Although Greece has had its many eras, “Each era has its own related sphere of interest.” (History of Greece). The complications that originated in ancient Greece are now reoccurring in present day to an extent. Fortunately, Greece is a country that is very strong; they are not afraid to fight for what they feel is right. It also helps that Greece stays out of any worldly dilemma that does not have anything to do with them. Of course, there have been times in which Greece has been defeated or taken advantage of, but the country did
History tends to repeat itself and Greece is no exception. Greece’s current economic crisis can be partly blamed on Greek mythology. It can be seen with Greece’s prime minister Alexis Tsipras decisions in policy which have resulted in similar repercussions as the myths. For example,
As far as Greece’s role in creating this crisis in the first place, it can be said that Greece is at fault for a variety of reasons. The media has been focusing on the corrupt political system and infrastructure, the lack of competition in the private sector, the wastefulness and inefficiency of the public sector and a flawed tax system as causation for this mess. When the public sector was expanded in the 1980’s, Andreas Papandreou was given various agricultural subsidies and grants to do with what he pleased. This enabled the funding of certain post-World War II groups to heal political wounds and fund unions and other special interest groups to aid his political capital and strength. The policies enacted in this decade allowed for the increase in power and funding of the middle class by creating a vast amount of inefficient public sector government jobs for citizens. This resulted in an increase in the levels of inefficiency, bureaucracy, corruption and wasteful spending coupled with the increase in wages, pensions and benefits. This proceeded to drain through government money and resources, and did not breed a culture of highly motivated, efficient and effective government employees. A high amount of debts accumulated as the nation continued to proceed in this way, using state money to subsidize failing businesses
With an area of roughly 131,957 square kilometers, approximately 50,949 square miles (“Greece Facts,” n.d.), Greece has been a predominant part of European history. This beautiful, ancient country is well-known for their vibrant history and enchanting Greek mythology. Today, however, Greece is more known for their deepening economic crisis. The tumultuous economic issues began around World War II as a result of the German occupation of Greece. Problems escalated following the occupation as the country fell into a civil war. "Communist and government troops tore the country apart."(Buchanan, 2015). In 1949, the government found themselves victorious but left with an economically broken Greece. Though the country is currently enduring hardships, there is still much hope for the future.
Recently Greece’s economy has been suffering. The economy of Greece was almost destroyed during World War II and during the Greek civil war (Baxevanis). Greece’s economy has been suffering since two thousand eight.
A country who’s economy was devastated by the monetary exports demanded of them by the second world war, Greece has shown great financial fluctuation and vulnerability within the last 80 years, resulting in one of the most disputed economic records in the history of the European Union. Dubbed the ‘Greek Economic Miracle’, Greece showed great resilience throughout the 1950’s and 1960’s, with credit to their superior food trade and shipping industry, continuing to produce high levels of economic growth in contrast to others that had also been affected by the war. With the Treaty of Accession (1979) entering into force on 1st January 1981, Greek’s commitment to the European Communities (European Union) proved pivotal regarding it’s controversial qualification into the Eurozone in 2000. Owing to this, in an attempt to recover the unstable foundations of its economy, Greece has since been subject to various regulations and measures of austerity, leaving what was once a highly commended country both financially and socially, in a deplorable state of desperation.
The roots of Greece’s economic problems extend deep down into the recesses of history. After the government dropped the drachma for the euro in 2001, the economy started to grow by an average of 4% annually, almost twice the European Union average. Interest rates were low, unemployment was dropping, and trade was at an all-time high. However, these promising indicators masked horrible fiscal governance, growing government debt and declining current account balances. Greece was banking on the rapid economic growth to build upwards on highly unstable foundations. In 2008, the inevitable happened – the Greek debt crisis.
In 1999, ten European nations joined together to create an economic and monetary union known as the Eurozone. Countries, such as Germany, have thrived with the euro but nations, like Greece, have deteriorated since its adoption of the euro in 2001. The Eurozone was created in 1999 and currently consists of eighteen European nations united under the European Central Bank and all use the euro. The Eurozone has a one point six percent inflation rate and an eleven point six percent unemployment rate in 2014. Greece joined the Eurozone in 2001 and was the poorest European Union member at the time with a two point six percent inflation rate3 (James, 2000). Greece had a long economic history before joining the Eurozone. The economy flourished from 1960 to 1970 with low inflation and modernization and industrialization occurring. The market crash in the late 1970’s led Greece into a state of recession that the nation is still struggling with. Military failures, the PASOK party and the introduction of the euro have further tarnished Greece’s economic stability. The nation struggles with lack of competitiveness, high deficit, and inflation. Greece has many options like bailouts, rescue packages, and PPP to help dig it out of this recession. The best option is to abandon the Eurozone and go back to the drachma. Greece’s inflation and deficit are increasing more and more and loans and bailouts have not worked in the past. Leaving the Eurozone will allow Greece to restructure and rebuild
The economic crisis of 2008 in New York had ripple effects around the world, causing deep structural problems within the European Union to crumble the economies of several countries. These countries, known as the PIGS, are made up of Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, and collectively hold most of the sovereign debt problems of the European Union. After fast growth early in the decade, these countries were spending too much money and not securing their own banking sectors with enough capital. Soon, the debt the PIGS owed caused massive problems throughout the EU, and Germany and France had to come to the rescue of these poorly managed countries. (Greek Crisis Timeline, 1) Now, in 2012, the issue has yet to be fully resolved. Greece is still sinking, and a massive bailout for Greece's banks is required. The debate is whether Germany should continue bailing out Greece and collecting interest on its loans, or whether Greece should try to separate itself from the broader European Union, in an attempt to manage its own finances and declare bankruptcy in order to save itself from crippling interest payments. Each path offers an escape from the present situation that Greece finds itself in, but only the path of bailout results in a harmonious European Union. If Greece fragments off from the EU, then the entire union is weakened as a result. I believe that Greece should accept the terms of the bailout that Germany has provided, and should undergo several years
Although a commonly accepted view is that the hidden budget deficit in Greece is the beginning of the European sovereign debt crisis, the real causes of this economic crisis can be various. To reveal the whole event, a comprehensive review of the background is