1 UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON – VICTORIA SCHOOL OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
ECO 6351 ECONOMICS FOR MANAGERS / SECTION Cinco Ranch
INDIVIDUAL CASE ANALYSIS: WHY ARE COCOA PRICES RISING?
INSTRUCTOR: Dr. Vera Adamchik STUDENT: _____Hassan Cherradi______
I, ________Hassan Cherradi______________, hereby certify and warrant: (a) that this Individual Case Analysis is my original work; (b) that I have acknowledged all the sources used in this Case. I understand that copying of another’s work and representing it as my own work is a serious academic offense, and should be treated as such.
April 2009
2 Causes and Analysis of Rising Cocoa Beans Prices Prices for cocoa mainly respond to supply and demand factors. Ideally, one would think
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Furthermore, forecasts of unreasonable weather can raise fears that crops would be damaged and that production would fall. Such forecasts can also result in pushing cocoa prices to go up. For instance, it is not uncommon that because of the frequent dry weather that hit West Africa in past years, speculations of re-occurrence of another weather dry seasons would persist. Rossingh (2007) reported the following: Drier than usual winds this year in West Africa, where 70 percent of all cocoa beans are grown, prompted the International Cocoa Organization in London last month to increase its forecast for a global supply shortfall this year. Global production will drop 7.5 percent to 3.44 million tons while demand will rise 1.7 percent to 3.55 million tons, the group said May 31. (p.15) Similarly, unfavourable weather is an underlying determinant of cocoa’s market supply. Unfavourable weather will cause a slow and cut down of production of cocoa crops, reduce the available supply of cocoa in the market and cause the entire supply curve to shift leftward, resulting in a spike in cocoa prices at smaller quantities in the market. Political Instability, Civil Unrest or Strikes Political unrest also contributes to the cocoa price equation. Ivory Coast, the global leading supplier of cocoa beans, can be drawn as a good example of how political
The weather has an impact on the procurement of grains and makes it very volatile. In 1990 a poor harvest contributed to low inventories and sales volume. Willis
Next I will need to conduct a total cost analysis to see how much it would be to purchase cocoa. The monthly cost of cocoa beans fluctuates monthly. In January, 2010 cocoa beans were being sold at their highest- $3,525.12. Currently, cocoa beans are sold for $2,730.20. It may be wise to purchase a larger amount of cocoa beans when the cost of them declines, to save
There is a high bargaining power of suppliers because of the need of the key ingredients required for chocolate manufacturing and limited number of suppliers for this industry. Since cocoa trees require tropical climate, it forces the main producers in the west to import them from countries in West Africa or other hot places
Côte d’Ivoire’s mass production practices lead to the cocoa trade becoming a highly influential economic factor (Losch, 2002, p. 210). Because of this, paired with governmental involvement in the sector, dreams of dominating the cocoa market and influencing prices naturally followed (Losch, 2002, p. 210). Unfortunately, market power is more complicated than supplying the majority of product. However, attempts to control the price of cocoa by pulling out of the market temporarily proved disastrous, ultimately aiding the other producers by reducing the competition (Losch, 2002, p. 212). Côte d’Ivoire also quickly realized that it was too dependent on the cocoa trade both economically and politically to employ this tactic for long
1. How significant (quantitatively) of a problem is the mismatch between supply and demand for L.L. Bean?
“This is to certify that the work I am submitting is my own. All external references and sources are clearly acknowledged and identified within the contents. I am aware of the University of Warwick regulation concerning plagiarism and collusion.
The middle men who buy the cocoa from the farmers do not tell the farmers the current prices for cocoa, thus preventing the farmers from making a profit and enabling them to pay their workers. The chocolate companies buy the refined cocoa from these middle men, and sell finished chocolate products that were partially produced through slave labor. The consumers
The premium chocolate market has been growing at 20% annually, showing that buyers are willing to pay more for a better tasting and better quality chocolate. The declining growth of the overall chocolate market and rapid growth of the premium chocolate market is positive for current producers of premium chocolates in that the decline
Professor David Guest, claims that a worldwide shortage of cocoa should take effect in 2020. He says there are a number of reasons for this expected dearth. About 70 percent of cocoa beans come from West Africa which has had political and social upheaval in past couple of decades. In Indonesia there are pests and diseases, and farmers grow more profitable crops than cocoa beans. He says that intense labor is also a problem with growing cocoa to. A cocoa tree grows to harvest age in three years, and then you can harvest it regularly for 15 to 20 years if you take good care of it. In order to keep these trees alive you need laborers as well, this is a problem with the labor shortages. A lot of laborers are not healthy
Climate change is a major factor, that impact the growth in cocoa. Cocoa is produced mainly in the rainforest area of the country, known as the cocoa belt. The increasing rates of climate change have a major influence on the 3 stages of cocoa productions, which are the seedling phase, establishment phase and processing phase. This is a result due to the fact that most of the production is based around the climate for an instance for warming the soil, plants, air and metabolic processes solar radiation produces energy. When to plant cocoa seeds is regulated when rain starts and may become unpredictable due to climate change which may then destroy the survival of the crops. Climate change helps determine the economic value to the cocoa. Cocoa
These shifts in supply and demand would influence price, quantity, and market equilibrium because of the natural disasters, shift in prices or speculation the supply of coffee decreases, which would cause a significant product shortage for consumers. Due to a shortage, consumers would to pay higher prices in order to purchase coffee and all coffee producers would then demand a higher price in order to produce more products. Higher prices are beneficial to the producers of the product, but consumer would purchase fewer products. Lower product pricing would discourage coffee production, but would benefit consumers. Both supply and demand would balance consumption, which is demand and production, which is supply.
Figure 4b shows that as a result of a decrease in banana suppliers in the market, the supply curve shifts upwards causing the equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity of bananas to decrease. Figure 4b also depicts that at a higher
Thus, this paper would focus on the question that “ what cause the decline of Ghana’s chocolate industry in the mid-twentieth century?” Some scholars believe that the farmers could not afford the cost of maintaining the cocoa trees from pest and diseases, which lead to the decline of the cocoa industry. A better answer to this question is that the cocoa industry in Ghana was prone to the control of large organizations which were solely looking out for their own self interests. First, the government in Ghana made specific policies targeted at the cocoa industry in order to gain huge tax revenue. Moreover, the Ghana Cocoa Marketing Board manipulated the cocoa surplus from the farmer to earn a profit in their own coffers. Finally, large chocolate companies controlled the market price for cocoa to maximize their profits. The demise of the cocoa industry in Ghana is significant for understanding the vulnerability of Ghana’s economy when the country rely heavily on cocoa beans as the cash
A recent report from HSBC isn’t quite so alarming…unless you read between the lines. “World agricultural markets,” it says, “have become so finely balanced between supply and demand that local disruptions can have a major impact on the global prices of the affected commodities and then reverberate throughout the entire food chain.”
The natural environment involves Cocoa beans that are needed by Whittaker’s to produce their chocolate products. Over the next few years, the world is expected to face a chocolate ‘drought’, leading to soaring prices of cocoa beans due to insufficient consumable cocoa to chocolate manufacturers. (Western farm press, 2011)