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1) You should only use the past to forecast the future:
True
False
2) Choose the best answer. 3 uses of forecast and their time frames, Use the system:
annually |
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daily/weekly |
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hourly |
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as required |
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monthly |
3) Choose the best match. Judgmental methods, Sales force opinions:
questionnaires or focus groups
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technological |
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use demand for a similar product
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pool opinions of high-level executives
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based on direct customer contact
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4) Choose the answer with the best match. Elements of a Good Forecast, Timely:
The degree of accuracy of the forecast should be stated
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The forecasting horizon must cover the time necessary to implement possible changes so that its results can be used
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The units measured should be useful to those using the forecast
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It should work consistently
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The benefits should outweigh the costs
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Solved in 3 steps
- The Lockit Company manufactures door knobs for residential homes and apartments. Lockit is considering the use of simple (single-driver) and multiple regression analyses to forecast annual sales because previous forecasts have been inaccurate. The new sales forecast will be used to initiate the budgeting process and to identify more completely the underlying process that generates sales. Larry Husky, the controller of Lockit, has considered many possible independent variables and equations to predict sales and has narrowed his choices to four equations. Husky used annual observations from 20 prior years to estimate each of the four equations. Following are definitions of the variables used in the four equations and a statistical summary of these equations: St=ForecastedsalesindollarsforLockitinperiodtSt1=ActualsalesindollarsforLockitinperiodt1Gt=ForecastedU.S.grossdomesticproductinperiodtGt1=ActualU.S.grossdomesticproductinperiodt1Nt1=Lockitsnetincomeinperiodt1 Required: 1. Write Equations 2 and 4 in the form Y = a + bx. 2. If actual sales are 1,500,000 in the current year, what would be the forecasted sales for Lockit in the coming year? 3. Explain why Larry Husky might prefer Equation 3 to Equation 2. 4. Explain the advantages and disadvantages of using Equation 4 to forecast sales.The following series of statements or phrases are associated with product life-cycle viewpoints. Identify whether each one is associated with the marketing, production, or customer viewpoint. Where possible, identify the particular characteristic being described. If the statement or phrase fits more than one viewpoint, label it as interactive. Explain the interaction. a. Sales are increasing at an increasing rate. b. The cost of maintaining the product after it is purchased. c. The product is losing market acceptance and sales are beginning to decrease. d. A design is chosen to minimize post-purchase costs. e. Ninety percent or more of the costs are committed during the development stage. f. The length of time that the product serves the needs of a customer. g. All the costs associated with a product for its entire life cycle. h. The time in which a product generates revenue for a company. i. Profits tend to reach peak levels during this stage. j. Customers have the lowest price sensitivity during this stage. k. Describes the general sales pattern of a product as it passes through distinct life-cycle stages. l. The concern is with product performance and price. m. Actions taken so that life-cycle profits are maximized. n. Emphasizes internal activities that are needed to develop, produce, market, and service products.Measure Maps Silver Lining Inc. has a balanced scorecard with a strategy map that shows that delivery time and the number of erroneous shipments are expected to affect the company’s ability to satisfy the customer. Further, the strategy map for the balanced scorecard shows that the hours from ordered to delivered affects the percentage of customers who shop again, and the number of erroneous shipments affects the online customer satisfaction rating. The following information is also available: The company’s target hours from ordered to delivered is 30. Every hour over the ordered-to-delivered target results in a 0.5% decrease in the percentage of customers who shop again. The company’s target number of erroneous shipments per year is no more than 55. Every error over the erroneous shipments target results in a 0.5 point decrease in the online customer satisfaction rating and an added future financial loss of $600. The company estimates that for every 1% decrease in the percentage of…
- Measure Maps Silver Lining Inc. has a balanced scorecard with a strategy map that shows that delivery time and the number of erroneous shipments are expected to affect the company’s ability to satisfy the customer. Further, the strategy map for the balanced scorecard shows that the hours from ordered to delivered affects the percentage of customers who shop again, and the number of erroneous shipments affects the online customer satisfaction rating. The following information is also available: The company’s target hours from ordered to delivered is 20. Every hour over the ordered-to-delivered target results in a 0.5% decrease in the percentage of customers who shop again. The company’s target number of erroneous shipments per year is no more than 55. Every error over the erroneous shipments target results in a 0.5 point decrease in the online customer satisfaction rating and an added future financial loss of $800. The company estimates that for every 1% decrease in the percentage of…Measure Maps Silver Lining Inc. has a balanced score card with a strategy map that shows that delivery time and the number of erroneous shippments are expected to affect the company's ability to satisfy the customer. Further, the strategy map for the balanced score scare shows that the hours from ordered to dekivered affects the online customer satisfaction rating. The following information is also available: The company's target hours from ordered to delivered is 30 . Every hour over the ordered-to-delivered target results in a 0.5% decrease in the percentage of customers who shop again. The company's target number of erroneous shipments per year is no more than 55 Every error over the erroneous shipments target results in a 0.5 point decrease in the online customer satisfaction rating and an added future finanical loss of $600. The company estimates that for every 1% decrease in the percentage of customers who stop again, future profit decreases by $3,000 and market share decrease…Internal production supervisors of a company’s product line would be MOST likely to ask which of the following questions? Select answer from the options below 1.How much profit can the company expect to earn this year? 2.What can the company afford to pay its employees this year? 3.Which product line is the least profitable and should be eliminated? 4.How much should the company charge for its products to maximize its profit?
- In a company, the development and project team faced two opportunities, and evaluated each opportunity based on basic criteria and the results were Table 2:1 Comparison between opportunity A and opportunity B Standards Standard weight opportunity A opportunity B Consistency with the company's vision. 0.2 5 4 the expected cost. 0.15 4 5 Increase market share. 0.05 4 4 expected return. 0.1 2 3 advanced technology. 0.05 2 4 Expected time to start production. 0.15 4 5 Legislative approval. 0.1 2 5 product price. 0.2 5 4 Note 1: The chance can take a score from 1 to 5 on each criterion Note 2: The weight of the criterion has the relative importance of each criterion compared to the other criteria Based on the result of the comparison, what is the opportunity that the company is supposed to work on? Preparing a Request for Proposals Document (RFP): Before discussing the method of preparing a…The following are some selected quotes from senior executives: CEO, Worthington Industries fa high technology steel company): "We try to find the best technology, stay ahead of the competition, and serve the customer.... We’ll make any investment that will pay back quickly... but if it is something that we really see as a must down the road, payback is not going to be that important." Chairman of Amgen Inc. (a biotech company): “You cannot really run the numbers, do net present value calculations, because the uncertainties are really gigantic. ... You decide on a project you want to run, and then you run the numbers [as a reality check on your assumptions]. Success in a business like this is much more dependent on tracking rather than on predicting, much more dependent on seeing results over time, tracking and adjusting and readjusting, much more dynamic, much more flexible." Chief Financial Officer of Merck & Co., Inc. (a pharmaceutical company):"... at the individual product…James is an executive with ABC Digital. He is looking at the company sales for that past six quarters in different regions to understand sales trends. What type of analytical framework is used in this scenario? James is an executive with ABC Digital. He is looking at the company sales for that past six quarters in different regions to understand sales trends. What type of analytical framework is used in this scenario? Predictive Analytics Descriptive Analytics Prescriptive Analytics Inferential statistics
- 1.Forecasts using Point-of-Sales (POS) systems are based on A.different deterministic factors that affect market demandB. developments and findings in markets that are relatively similar C.the use of store scanners in weekly and biweekly store audits D.computer analysis of past performance data to predict future market demand 2.For retailers and channel members, an important method of forecasting sales is A.time series models B.econometric models C.sales force composite estimates D.point-of-sales (POS) based projections 3. In primary research, once data has been collected and the questionnaire has been coded, the next step for the researcher is to A.analyze the data B.interpret the data results C.make recommendations from the findings D.input the data into a computer program 4.Among the sampling decisions that must be made, researchers must select the _____, which is the group of individuals who will be included in the survey. A.sample size…Which of the following statements about the RFM analysis above is NOT correct? A) The average response rate is 2.02%. B) Recency metric may perform better to predict responsive customers than Frequency and Mon- etary value metrics. C) The response rate of recency-based quintile 1 (4.50%) is much greater than the average re- sponse rate, implying that company X would be able to reduce the costs incurred for having a successful number of responses in the campaign if it chose the customers only from the quintile (recency-based quintile 1). D) This result shows a failure of predicting profitable customers through the RFM metrics because the response rate does not dramatically vary from monetary value-based quintile 1 to 5.Based on this table below write a business memo addressed to the president recommending the best course of action based on your analysis. In your memo, discuss changes in break-even points, and impacts to the operating leverage. Including a table summarizing your findings would be appropriate. The company’s long-range plan is to grow sales to 250,000 units in the next two to three years. In your memo, summarize the advantages and disadvantages of each of the alternatives. Critically evaluate the alternatives based on current market conditions and any impact each alternative may have on the long-range plan. Write a business memo addressed to the president recommending the best course of action based on your analysis. In your memo, discuss changes in break-even points, and impacts to the operating leverage. Including a table summarizing your findings would be appropriate. The company’s long-range plan is to grow sales to 250,000 units in the next two to three years. In your memo,…