1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data. a. Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and b. 7,131 as the initial value C. What is your prediction for Q1, 2021? d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model. 2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data. 3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis
Problem 2P
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Year Quarter Revenue
2010 1 7,131.00
2010 2 6,566.00
2010 3 7,560.00
2010 4 12,947.00
2011 1 9,857.00
2011 2 9,913.00
2011 3 10,876.00
2011 4 17,431.00
2012 1 13,185.00
2012 2 12,834.00
2012 3 13,806.00
2012 4 21,268.00
2013 1 16,070.00
2013 2 15,704.00
2013 3 17,091.00
2013 4 25,587.00
2014 1 19,741.00
2014 2 19,340.00
2014 3 20,578.00
2014 4 29,329.00
2015 1 22,717.00
2015 2 23,184.00
2015 3 25,358.00
2015 4 35,747.00
2016 1 29,128.00
2016 2 30,404.00
2016 3 32,714.00
2016 4 43,741.00
2017 1 35,714.00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2017 2 37,955.00
2017 3 43,744.00
2017 4 60,453.00
2018 1 51,042.00
2018 2 52,886.00
2018 3 56,576.00
2018 4 72,383.00
2019 1 59,700.00
2019 2 63,404.00
2019 3 69,982.00
2019 4 87,436.00
2020 1 75,452.00
2020 2 88,912.00
2020 3 96,145.00
2020 4 125,555.00
1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data.
a.
Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and
b. 7,131 as the initial value
C.
What is your prediction for Q1, 2021?
d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model.
2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data.
3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate?
Transcribed Image Text:1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data. a. Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and b. 7,131 as the initial value C. What is your prediction for Q1, 2021? d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model. 2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data. 3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate?
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