What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 3 year moving average? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7 forecast was 323. Select your own alpha.
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Sarah has been custom manufacturing sweaters now for 7 years. Her annual sales are shown below.
|
Year |
Sales |
|
1 |
178 |
|
2 |
215 |
|
3 |
233 |
|
4 |
301 |
|
5 |
337 |
|
6 |
330 |
|
7 |
361 |
- What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 3 year moving average?
- What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05?
- What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7
forecast was 323. Select your own alpha. - Which forecast method is the best for Sarah to use based on MAD? Why?
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