12 Question If the percentage rate of growth of time series data is stable, then time series has: 1. Linear trend 2. Parabolic trend 3. Exponential trend
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- The US. import of wine (in hectoliters) for several years is given in Table 5. Determine whether the trend appearslinear. Ifso, and assuming the trend continues, in what year will imports exceed 12,000 hectoliters?What Is a Trend? how time series variable fluctuates around its trend?The following table reports the percentage of stocks in a portfolio for nine quarters: a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a thatresults in a relatively small MSE.c. Using the exponential smoothing model you developed in part b, what is the forecastof the percentage of stocks in a typical portfolio for the second quarter of year 3?
- With the gasoline time series data from table 17.1, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using a = .1.a. applying the MSe measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of a = .1 or a = .2 for the gasoline sales time series?b. are the results the same if you apply Mae as the measure of accuracy?c. What are the results if Mape is used?Explain the various concepts & tools of regression with time series data?A time series trend equation is 23 + 73x. What is your forecast for period 20?
- The general fund budget (in billions of dollars) for a U.S. state for 1988 (period 1) to 2011 (period 24) follows. -Develop a linear trend equation for this time series to forecast the budget (in billions of dollars). (Round your numerical values to three decimal places.) -What is the forecast (in billions of dollars) for period 25? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)How are seasonal adjustments made in a time series analysis? Cyclical and Residual adjustments?If an asset declines in value from $5000 to $3500 over nine years, what is the mean annual growth rate in the asset's value over these nine years?
- What is the adjusted Exponential Smoothing forecast for Year 4, Q1 using alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.5? What is the predicted annual demand for year 4? What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for year 4, Q1?llustrate the concepts of ARIMA models and exponential smoothing on forecasting future values of a time series. Compare their similarities and differences. (max. 400 words)You gave a forecast only for 1 month !!! Based on the task 2 month needed Graph initial and smoothed time series. Does your forecast seem to be reasonable? Explain your answer.