19-10. A real estate investor in a medium-sized western city is considering three investments: an apartment building, a strip mall, and an office building. Returns from each investment alternative depend on future population growth. The investor has developed three growth scenarios showing the rev- enue from each investment alternative along with their probabilities of occurrence. This information is shown in the following table: Population Growth Slow Average High Probability Apartment Mall 0.20 - $75,000 $15,000 0.30 10,000 30,000 0.50 150,000 75,000 For the given payoff matrix, what is the best decision and its associated payoff using each of the following? a. the maximax criterion b. the maximin criterion Office $200,000 50,000 100,000 c. the minimax regret criterion d. the expected-value criterion
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- Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?A local real estate investor in Montego Bay is considering three alternative investments: a motel,a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availabilityof gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under anyconditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from eachinvestment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Availability)Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply SurplusMotel $–8,000 $15,000 $20,000Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 A. Which option should the real estate investor choose if he uses the LaPlace criterion? B. Using a…Kroft Food Products is attempting to decide whether it should introduce a new line of salad dressings called Special Choices. The company can test market the salad dressings in selected geographic areas or bypass the test market and introduce the product nationally. The cost of the test market is $150,000. If the company conducts the test market, it must wait to see the results before deciding whether to introduce the salad dressings nationally. The probability of a positive test market result is estimated to be 0.6. Alternatively, the company can decide not to conduct the test market and go ahead and make the decision to introduce the dressings or not. If the salad dressings are introduced nationally and are a success, the company estimates that it will realize an annual profit of $1.6 million, whereas if the dressings fail, it will incur a loss of $700,000. The company believes the probability of success for the salad dressings is 0.50 if they are introduced without the test market.…
- The CEO of Lucky Petroleum Co. has been considering to open a new gasoline statioin. He must decide how large the station should be. The annual returns (IDR billions) will depend on both the size of the station and market factor. After a careful analysis he developed the following table: Size of Station Good Market Fair Market Poor Market Small 50 20 -10 Medium 70 30 -20 Large 100 50 -30 Probability 0.5 0.3 0.2 Compute the expected value of each alternative size of station, and select the best decision. Construct the opportunity loss table and determine the best decision. Compute the expected value of perfect information.Ohio Swiss Milk Products manufactures and distributes icecream in Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia. The companywants to expand operations by locating another plant innorthern Ohio. The size of the new plant will be a function ofthe expected demand for ice cream within the area served bythe plant. A market survey is currently under way to deter-mine that demand.Ohio Swiss wants to estimate the relationship between themanufacturing cost per gallon and the number of gallonssold in a year to determine the demand for ice cream and,thus, the size of the new plant. The following data have beencollected:a. Develop a regression equation to forecast the cost per gal-lon as a function of the number of gallons produced. b. What are the correlation coefficient and the coefficient ofdetermination? Comment on your regression equation inlight of these measures.c. Suppose that the market survey indicates a demand of325,000 gallons in the Bucyrus, Ohio area. Estimate themanufacturing cost per gallon…Southern Gas Company (SGC) is preparing to make a bid for oil and gas leasing right in a newly opened drilling area in the Gulf of Mexico. SGC is trying to decide whether to place a high bid of $16 million or a low bid of $7 million. SGC expects to be bidding against its major competitor, Northern Gas Company (NGC) and predicts NGC to place a bid of $10 million with probability 0.4 or a bid of $6 million with probability 0.6. Geological data collected at the drilling site indicates a 0.15 probability of the reserves at the site being large, a 0.35 probability of being average, and a 0.50 probability of being unusable. A large or average reserve would most likely represent a net asset value of $120 million or $28 million, respectively, after all drilling and extraction costs are paid. The company that wins the bid will drill an exploration well at the site for a cost of $5 million. a. Develop a decision tree for this problem. b. What is the optimal decision according to the EMV…
- Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Build large plant $400,000 −$300,000 Build small plant $120,000 −$15,000 Don't Build $0 $0 Market Probability 0.40 0.60 a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in Figure ____ (all payoffs are in thousands). b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______ . c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) = $___________ (enter your answer as a whole numNicole Nelson has come into an inheritance from hergrandparents. She is attempting to decide among several investment alternatives. The return after one year is depen-dent primarily on the interest rate during the next year. The rate is currently 7%, and she anticipates it will stay thesame or go up or down by at most 2 points. The variousinvestment alternatives plus their returns ($10,000s) giventhe interest rate changes are shown in the following table.Determine the best investment using the following decisioncriteria.a. Maximaxb. Maximinc. Equal likelihoodd. Assume that Nicole, with the help of a financialnewsletter and some library research, has been able toassign probabilities to each of the possible interest ratesduring the next year as follows: Interest Rate 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%Probability 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P09_31.xlsx contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. a. Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. b. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution? Tire plant decisions Decision\outcome…
- Ellie Daniels has $200,000 and is considering three mutual funds for investment—a global fund, an index fund, and an Internet stock fund. During the first year of investment, Ellie estimates that there is a .70 probability that the market will go up and a .30 probability that the market will go down. Following are the returns on her $200,000 investment at the end of the year under each market condition: Market Conditions Fund Up Down Global $25,000 $ -8,000 Index 35,000 5,000 Internet 60,000 -35,000 At the end of the first year, Ellie will either reinvest the entire amount plus the return or sell and take the profit or loss. If she reinvests, she estimates that there is a .60 probability the market will go up and a .40 probability the market will go down. If Ellie reinvests in the global fund after it has gone up, her return on her initial $200,000 investment plus her $25,000 return after 1 year will be $45,000. If the market goes down, her loss will be $15,000. If she reinvests after…Maximus Steel plans to introduce one of three new products code-named: Wren, Hawk, and Nightingale. The marketing department indicated that the success of any product depends on the market conditions (Favorable, Neutral, or Unfavorable). The profit the company will earn also depends on the market conditions. The table below shows the probability estimated for each market condition and the profits Maximus Steel will realize within those conditions: Product Code Market Conditions Favorable P = 0.2 Neutral P = 0.7 Unfavorable P = 0.1 Wren $120,000 $70,000 ($30,000) Hawk $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Nightingale $35,000 $30,000 $30,000 Maximus Steel is considering hiring a market research firm to do a survey to determine future market conditions. The results of the survey will indicate either positive or negative market conditions. There is a 0.60 probability of a positive report, given favorable conditions; a 0.30 probability of a positive…Maximus Steel plans to introduce one of three new products code-named: Wren, Hawk, and Nightingale. The marketing department indicated that the success of any product depends on the market conditions (Favorable, Neutral, or Unfavorable). The profit the company will earn also depends on the market conditions. The table below shows the probability estimated for each market condition and the profits Maximus Steel will realize within those conditions: Product Code Market Conditions Favorable P = 0.2 Neutral P = 0.7 Unfavorable P = 0.1 Wren $120,000 $70,000 ($30,000) Hawk $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Nightingale $35,000 $30,000 $30,000 Part 1 Instructions: Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each product.