Forecasting assienmentA clothing company wants to forecast the demand for its main product, based on the data below.Week Sales1780077253475008550900058925178140631507591011121767017442184681835413181261422040151617308002956830184183110819203203231416Management would like you to experiment with different forecasting methods, using Excel, to determinewhich forecasting method to be implemented.2. Simple moving average using Excel:2.12.2Calculate demand forecast for weeks 6-20 using 5 week simple moving average.Calculate demand forecast for weeks 10-20 using 9 week simple moving average.Plot the two simple movingon the obtained graph.Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of eachmethod. Accordingly which method is better?2.3age forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment2.4

Forecasting is predicting the demand/sales in advance for future periods. Moving average forecast is…

2. Simple moving average using Excel: Calculate demand forecast for weeks 6-20 using 5 week simple moving average. Calculate demand forecast for weeks 10-20 using 9 week simple moving average. Plot the two simple moving average forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment on the obtained graph. Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of each method. Accordingly which method is better? 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

2. Simple moving average using Excel: Calculate demand forecast for weeks 6-20 using 5 week simple moving average. Calculate demand forecast for weeks 10-20 using 9 week simple moving average. Plot the two simple moving average forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment on the obtained graph. Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of each method. Accordingly which method is better? 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management

6th Edition

ISBN:9781285869681

Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

ChapterC: Cases

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 5.1SC: Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Th e manager of a small health clinic would like to useexponential smoothing to forecast demand for laboratory servicesin the facility. However, she is not sure whether to use a high orlow value of α . To make her decision, she would like to comparethe forecast accuracy of a high and low α on historical data. Shehas decided to use an α = 0.7 for the high value and α = 0.1 forthe low value. Given the following historical data, which do youthink would be better to use? Week Demand (lab requirements)1 3302 3503 3204 3705 3686 343
Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the lastweek were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88, 90 (yesterday).a) Forecast the high temperature today, using a 3-day movingaverage.b) Forecast the high temperature today, using a 2-day movingaverage.c) Calculate the mean absolute deviation based on a 2-daymoving average.d) Compute the mean squared error for the 2-day movingaverage.e) Calculate the mean absolute percent error for the 2-daymoving average.
Week CheeseburgerSales 1 354 2 344 3 368 4 317 5 361 Based on historical observations over the past five weeks, make a forecast for the next period using the following methods: simple average, three-period moving average, and exponential smoothing with α = 0.4, given a forecast of 326 cheeseburgers for the first week. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places,e.g. 250.25) Simple average: F6 = enter forecast using a simple average 3-Period moving average: F6 = enter forecast using 3-Period moving average Exponential smoothing: F6 = enter forecast using exponential smoothing If actual sales for week 6 turn out to be 365, compare the three forecasts using MAD. Which method performed best?(Calculate your answers using the error only in period 6.) MAD (simple average) = enter forecast using a simple average of MAD MAD (3-period moving average) = enter forecast using 3-period moving average of MAD MAD (exponential smoothing) = enter forecast using exponential…
Apply the moving average with base m=4 forecasting technique of the data to estimate the demand in week 13.
Forecasting Forecasting is important relative to capacity requirements planning. What are some of the merits of using judgment methods (i.e., qualitative data) in contrast to quantitative forecasting methods. Which methods are considered to be superior or more accurate, and in what forecast situations would require judgment methods? In what situations would require a quantitative approach to forecasting?
Explain what are the benefits of exponential smoothing over moving average forecasting ?