9. Decision (Payoff) Table ESA Dealers, Inc. is contemplating on how many units of cars to order to meet the customer demands for the month based on the following projection: Demand 0 unit 1 unit 2 units Decision Alternative Stock 0 unit Stock 1 unit Stock 2 units Probability 10% 50% 40% The profit for each unit sold is P 200,000 while the carrying cost for each unit of unsold car is P 50,000. REQUIRED: How many units of cars should ESA order and why? States of Nature (based on demand) 0 unit (10%) 1 unit (50%) 2 units (40%) Expected Value
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- 4.7 Hudson Corporation is considering three options for managing its data processing operation: continuing with its own staff, hiring an outside vendor to do the managing (referred to as outsourcing), or using a combination of its own staff and an outside vendor. The cost of the operation depends on future demand. The annual cost of each option (in thousands of dollars) depends on demand as follows: Demand Staffing Options High Medium Low Own staff 650 650 600 Outside vendor 900 600 300 Combination 800 650 500 If the demand probabilities are 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3, and the table below shows the total cost of the different options, construct a risk profile for the optimal decision in the table. Option Total Cost Own Staff 635 Outside Vendor 570 Combination 635ABC Company negotiates a 1% credit card discount. If a customer charges $1,000 on his VISA credit card, how much money will ABC receive? ABC Company sold $10,000 of merchandise to a customer on September 1. The terms were 2/10, n/30. How much money will ABC Company is paid by September 8? Group of answer choices $9,000 $10,000 $9,800 $7,000Risk-neutral Icarus Airlines must commit now to leasing 1, 2, or 3 new airplanes. It knows with certainty that on the basis of business travel alone, it will need at least 1 airplane. The marketing division says that there is a 50% chance that tourism will be big enough for a second plane only. Otherwise, tourism will be big enough for a third plane. This, plus revenue information, yields the following table: Planes Tourism Revenue Expected Leased Light Heavy Profit 2 $90 million $60 million $75 million 3 $10 million $110 million $60 million Without additional information, Icarus Airlines would Select one: A. lease 2 airplanes in order to guarantee it avoids the worst outcome, $10 million B. lease 3 airplanes because $110 million is greater than $90 million C. lease 2 airplanes because $75 million is greater than $60 million. D. lease 3 airplanes because $60 million is greater than $10 million.
- Subject 2 A bottle company ALPHA, is considering creating a new bottle of 0.25 lt. To decide whether to invest in this projector not, they performed market research that costed €5,000. The results indicated two possible scenarios that depend on the competitor's reaction to create a similar product and on the percentage of the faithful customers of ALPHA. ScenarioA has a 45% chanceto be realized, while scenarioB has a probability of 55%. For the project's realization the company must purchase specialmachinery that cost €80,000, while transportation and installation costs amount to €2,000. The useful life of the project is two years, and the machinery can be sold at the end of the useful life for €30,000.Table 1 presents the pertinenteconomic data. At the end of the second year the working capital is going to be recaptured. The tax rate is 25%, the weighted average cost of capital is 10% and the company fully depreciates fixed assets for tax purposes, using the straight-line depreciation…1. What is the expected value of playing this game ? a. The player repeatedly rolls a six - side d die until it comes up 6. b. When the die comes up 6 , the player receives a payoff, and the game ends. The player get s precise ly one payof f. c. The initial payoff is $6, and it increases by 20%. The f irst roll payoff is $6 ; the second roll payoff is $7.20 (1.2*$6) ; the third roll payoff is $8.64 (1.2*$7.20), and so on. What is the expected value of playing this game?An investor is pondering on whether to invest in a siomai franchise or in a printing press company. He had his staff analyze the cost benefits that he would get from the two business ventures and they came up with this report. A. The siomai franchise would need Php 800 000 as capital. It has a 60-percent chance of profiting Php 400 000; a 15-percent chance of profiting Php 600 000; and 25-percent chance of losing the capital entirely. B. The paper manufacturing company would need Php 800 000 as capital. It has a 35-percent chance of earning Php 1 000 000 and a 65-percent chance of losing the capital entirely. C. Which between the two business ventures should the investor invest his Php 800 000?
- 64. (This problem assumes knowledge of the basic rulesof baseball.) George Lindsey (1959) looked at boxscores of more than 1000 baseball games and foundthe expected number of runs scored in an inning foreach on-base and out situation to be as listed in the fileP09_64.xlsx. For example, if a team has a man on firstbase with one out, it scores 0.5 run on average untilthe end of the inning. You can assume throughout thisproblem that the team batting wants to maximize theexpected number of runs scored in the inning.a. Use this data to explain why, in most cases,bunting with a man on first base and no outs isa bad decision. In what situation might buntingwith a man on first base and no outs be a gooddecision?b. Assume there is a man on first base with one out.What probability of stealing second makes an attempted steal a good idea?7 Consider a supply chain with the manufacturer, the retailer and end-users, using a buy-back contract, as below cost-benefit & demand forecasting details: F=$120,000 ; c=$30 ; w=$75 ; b=$50 ; p=$122 ; s=$15; Demand 1,800 1,920 2,040 2,160 Probability 26% 27% 29% 18% Calculate the retailer’s marginal profit, retailer’s marginal loss, manufacturer’s marginal profit. Calculate the expected profit of the retailer and the manufacturer for 4 above-mentioned demand scenarios. Then, conclude on which production quantity Q to maximize manufacturer’s expected profit, which production quantity Q to maximize retailer’s expected profit.1 . Individual Problems 17-2 You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $4 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You believe you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is . Given that this is , you play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is . (Hint: At what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?)
- Answer the following question with (True) if the statement is correct and with(False) if the statement is wrong 1. Project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product only ( __ )Justify:2. Time, budget, resources and customer specifications are the project limitations( __ )Justify:3. Adding working shifts to a late project will help crashing the project towards thedeadline( __ )Justify:4. Finish-to-start (FS) is a logical relationship in which a predecessor activity cannot startuntil a successor activity has finished. ( __ )Justify:5. The project customer/user not considered as a project stakeholder. ( __ )Justify:8) Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the problem whose payoff table appearsbelow.s1 s2 s3d1 500 100 -400d2 200 150 100d3 -100 200 300probability.2 .6 .2Indifference Probability for PersonPayoff A B C300 .95 .68 .45200 .94 .64 .32150 .91 .62 .28100 .89 .60 .22-100 .75 .45 .10a. Plot the utility function for each decision maker.b. Characterize each decision maker's attitude toward risk.c. Which decision will each person prefer?Ma3. The payoff matrix below shows the payoffs for Stefan and Imani in a two strategy game. In the mixed strategy equilibrium, Stefan will play strategy Up with a probability of 1/5 and strategy Down with a probability of 4/5, and Imani will play strategy Left with a probability of 2/5 and strategy Right with a probability of 3/5. What is Stefan's expected payoff in the mixed strategy equilibrium? 10.6 5 4.56 10.4