(a) Calculate the expected activity duration (t.), standard deviation (0) and variance ( for each activity. Assuming that the critical Path is B-E-F = 18 months (refer to Appendix A1 and A2 - Areas under the standard normal curve) i. What is the probability of completing the project in 19 months? (nearest estimated number) (b) ii. What is the probability of completing the project in 17 months? (nearest estimated number)

Practical Management Science
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Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
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Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Question 2
In Project B, there are nine (9) activities as shown in Table 2 below. (duration in months):
Table 2: Work Breakdown Schedule for Project B
Activity
(a)
(b)
A
B
с
D
E
F
G
H
I
Optimistic
time (t.)
4
1
4
4
7
8
2
2
1
Most
likely
time (1m)
6
2
4
5
10
9
2
3
3
Pessimistic Expected
time (t₂)
time (1₂)
8
3
4
6
16
10
2
7
11
Standard
deviation
(0₂)
Variance
(0₂)²
Calculate the expected activity duration (te), standard deviation (σ₂) and variance (0)²
for each activity.
Assuming that the critical Path is B-E-F = 18 months
(refer to Appendix A1 and A2 - Areas under the standard normal curve)
i. What is the probability of completing the project in 19 months?
(nearest estimated number)
ii. What is the probability of completing the project in 17 months?
(nearest estimated number)
Transcribed Image Text:Question 2 In Project B, there are nine (9) activities as shown in Table 2 below. (duration in months): Table 2: Work Breakdown Schedule for Project B Activity (a) (b) A B с D E F G H I Optimistic time (t.) 4 1 4 4 7 8 2 2 1 Most likely time (1m) 6 2 4 5 10 9 2 3 3 Pessimistic Expected time (t₂) time (1₂) 8 3 4 6 16 10 2 7 11 Standard deviation (0₂) Variance (0₂)² Calculate the expected activity duration (te), standard deviation (σ₂) and variance (0)² for each activity. Assuming that the critical Path is B-E-F = 18 months (refer to Appendix A1 and A2 - Areas under the standard normal curve) i. What is the probability of completing the project in 19 months? (nearest estimated number) ii. What is the probability of completing the project in 17 months? (nearest estimated number)
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