A project manager is attempting to estimate the time that will be required to complete an initial assessment of the capital project of constructing a new corporate headquarters. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the duration of these tasks, and generally little or no historical data are available to help estimate the probability distribution for the time required for this assessment process. Suppose that we are able to discuss this project with several subject-matter experts who have worked on similar projects. From these expert opinions and our own experience, we estimate that the minimum required time for the initial assessment phase is six months and that the worst- case estimate is th
A project manager is attempting to estimate the time that will be required to complete an initial assessment of the capital project of constructing a new corporate headquarters. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the duration of these tasks, and generally little or no historical data are available to help estimate the probability distribution for the time required for this assessment process. Suppose that we are able to discuss this project with several subject-matter experts who have worked on similar projects. From these expert opinions and our own experience, we estimate that the minimum required time for the initial assessment phase is six months and that the worst- case estimate is th
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....
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A project manager is attempting to estimate the time that will be required to complete an initial assessment of the capital project of constructing a new corporate headquarters. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the duration of these tasks, and generally little or no historical data are available to help estimate the probability distribution for the time required for this assessment process. Suppose that we are able to discuss this project with several subject-matter experts who have worked on similar projects. From these expert opinions and our own experience, we estimate that the minimum required time for the initial assessment phase is six months and that the worst- case estimate is that this phase could require 24 months. The experts stated that the most likely amount of time required for the initial assessment phase of the project is 12 months. a. Calculate the probability that the time required is less than 12 months b. Calculate the probability that the project requires more than 12 months, but less than or equal to 18 months
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