A renewal process has a renewal function M (t) = 4t + (1-e-4t). (a) What is the mean inter-event time? (number) (b) What is the expected time until the next event (from the beginning of the process) at time t = 3 ? (number)
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- Epidemic Model In a population of 200,000 people, 40,000 are infected with a virus. After a person becomes infected and then recovers, the person is immune cannot become infected again. Of the people who are infected, 5 will die each year and the other will recover. Of the people who have never been infected, 25 will become infected each year. How many people will be infected in 4 years?The lifetime of a certain type of TV remote control is given by Y . Suppose Y has approximately exponential distribution with mean 8 years. a) Find the probability that a remote control of this type will last more than 15 years. b) Find the probability that of eight such remote controls at least one will last more than 15 years. c) What should the warranty period for these remote controls be if the manufacturer wants 85% of the remote controls to last beyond the warranty period? d) What is the moment generating function of Y .Consider a linear birth–death process where the individual birth rate is λ=1, the individual death rate is μ= 3, and there is constant immigration into the population according to a Poisson process with rate α. Please explain and show work! (a) State the rate diagram and the generator. (b) Suppose that there are 10 individuals in the population. What is the probability that the population size increases to 11 before it decreases to 9? (c) Suppose that α = 1 and that the population just became extinct. What is the expected time until it becomes extinct again? α in Greek letter alpha.
- The lifetime of a bulb is modeled as a Poisson variable. You have two bulbs types A and B with expected lifetime 0.25 years and 0.5 years, respectively. When a bulb’s life ends, it stops working. You start with new bulb of type A at the start of the year. When it stops working, you replace it with a bulb of type B. When it breaks, you replace with a type A bulb, then a type B bulb, and so on. 1. Find the expected total illumination time (in years), given you do exactly 3 bulb replacements. 2. Your replacements are now probabilistic. If your current bulb breaks, you replace it with a bulb of type A with probability p, and with type B with probability (1 – p). Find the expected total illumination time (in years), given you do exactly nn bulb replacements, and start with bulb of type A. Answer for part 2 exists in closed form in terms of n and p.Lost-time accidents occur in a company at a mean rate of 0.3 per day. What is the probability that the number of lost-time accidents occurring over a period of 7 days will be exactly 3? Assume Poisson situation. P(X=3)At the end of summer, the total weight of seeds accumulated by a nest of seed-gathering ants will vary from nest to nest. If the total weight of seeds accumulated by a nest is exponentially distributed with parameter λ = 1/5, (a) What is the probability that the total combined weight of the seeds gathered by 100 nests will be larger than 4 95 pounds by the end of next summer? (b) What is the probability that the average weight of the seeds gathered by the 100 nests is larger than 5.3 ? (c) What assumptions are you making to answer parts (a) and (b)? Do you think those assumptions make sense in the context of this problem? Explain. (d) Tell us about the possibility that the total combined weight of the seeds gathered by 2 nests follows a normal distribution. Justify your answer in the specific context of this problem (ants, nests, seed-gathering). That is, do not just make generic statements that you think apply to every context in the world.
- The lifetime of a bulb is modeled as a Poisson variable. You have two bulbs typesA and B with expected lifetime 0.25 years and 0.5 years, respectively. When abulb’s life ends, it stops working. You start with new bulb of type A at the start ofthe year. When it stops working, you replace it with a bulb of type B. When itbreaks, you replace with a type A bulb, then a type B bulb, and so on. 1. Find the expected total illumination time (in years), given you do exactly 3bulb replacements.2. Your replacements are now probabilistic. If your current bulb breaks, youreplace it with a bulb of type A with probability pp, and with type B withprobability (1 – pp). Find the expected total illumination time (in years),given you do exactly nn bulb replacements, and start with bulb of type A.Answer for part 2 exists in closed form in terms of n and p.An enzyme reversibly binds a substrate. The rate constant (kcat) for catalytic conversion of enzyme-substrate complex into product and free enzyme is 1.0 s-1. The rate constant for dissociation of enzyme-substrate complex (k-1) is 9.0s^-1. 1) For each substrate binding event, what is the probability that substrate is converted into product rather than dissociated without conversion? 2) What is the probability that 20 consecutive binding events result in no product formation? 3) If you evaluated 1,000 different sets of 20 consecutive binding events, what would be the average number of product molecules formed (per 20 binding events)? 4) What is the probability that 20 consecutive binding events result in a number of product molecules at least equal to this average?A simple random sample X1, …, Xn is drawn from a population, and the quantities ln X1, …, ln Xn are plotted on a normal probability plot. The points approximately follow a straight line. True or false: a) X1, …, Xn come from a population that is approximately lognormal. b) X1, …, Xn come from a population that is approximately normal. c) ln X1, …, ln Xn come from a population that is approximately lognormal. d) ln X1, …, ln Xn come from a population that is approximately normal.
- Old Faithful is a geyser located in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, USA. Millions of travelers come from afar to witness Old Faithful's eruptions each year. The data provided show the waiting time until the next eruption for 272272 Old Faithful eruptions in 1990. Suppose that prior to 1990, travelers to Yellowstone are told that Old Faithful is expected to erupt, on average, every 6969 minutes, and park scientists believe that this average is no longer true. Suppose that, based on historical data available over several decades, the scientists are comfortable assuming that all eruption waiting times have a known standard deviation of 17.24817.248 minutes. 54 74 62 85 55 88 85 51 85 54 84 78 47 83 52 62 84 52 79 51 47 78 69 74 83 55 76 78 79 73 77 66 80 74 52 48 80 59 90 80 58 84 58 73 83 64 53 82 59 75 90 54 80 54 83 71 64 77 81 59 84 48 82 60…2) The time between successive customers coming to the market is assumed to have Exponential distribution with parameter l. a) If X1, X2, . . . , Xn are the times, in minutes, between successive customers selected randomly, estimate the parameter of the distribution. b) b) The randomly selected 12 times between successive customers are found as 1.8, 1.2, 0.8, 1.4, 1.2, 0.9, 0.6, 1.2, 1.2, 0.8, 1.5, and 0.6 mins. Estimate the mean time between successive customers, and write down the distribution function. c) In order to estimate the distribution parameter with 0.3 error and 4% risk, find the minimum sample size.2. You are to wait for the first car to arrive at an inspection station. It is believed that the waittime (in minutes) follows an Exponential distribution with parameter ✓ = 10 minutes. a. You are to wait for 10 independent cars to arrive (cars arrive one by one to the station, thinkof X i as the time for the i-th car). How long do you expect to wait to complete this task? Howmuch do you expect the true wait time to vary around the expected time?