a) Using a weighted moving average with three periods, determine the demand for period 13. Use 3, 2, and 1 for the weights of the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively b) Find the MAD, MSE and MAPE b) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.30 to forecast the sales. Assume that last period's forecast for month 1 is equal to actual to begin the procedure Which method do you think is best? Is this an improvement over the weighted average- use MAD onl·
Q: When forecasting demand for new products, sometimes i rms will use demand data from similar existing…
A: Demand forecasting is the technique used by managers to forecast the expected future demand and…
Q: I Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. Ferdinand how he can use a three- week and a…
A: Forecasting the future demand/sales can be done by various methods like moving average, weighted…
Q: Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent five months along with the…
A: Forecast by using 3 period simple moving average method-
Q: Month 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 Flat-Screen Sales 30 32 30 39 33 34 34 38 36 39 30 36 a) Determine the…
A: Find the given details below: Given Details: Month Flat Screen Sales 1 30 2 32 3 30 4…
Q: three-period moving average. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .20 and .30.…
A: forecasting is a method which helps to predict the unknown future based on the known past…
Q: a. Plot the monthly sales data. Do you observe any trend, cycles or random variations? b. Forecast…
A: Forecasting is a technique that uses recorded data as inputs to make instructed estimates that are…
Q: a. Compute a three-week moving average forecast for the arrival of medical clinic patients in week…
A: It is a method which calculates the overall demand of past & present in data set. It is useful…
Q: Sales volume of July was 390. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant o.2 to find the…
A:
Q: Given a 3-quarter period of actual and forecast demand as shown in the table. The company ABC sets a…
A: A forecasting method is a managerial tool which help to predict the unknown future based on…
Q: Time left 0:30:19 The sales of XYZ company for the previous three periods are 45,42, and 43…
A: The following is the data provided: Period Data January 45 February 42 March 43 The…
Q: (a) Compute a weighted average forecast for the data listed below using a weight of 0.40 for the…
A:
Q: Jsing trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, Forecasts (F,), Trend (T,), and Forecasts Including…
A: Given: α=0.20β=0.41(F1)=9 unitsT1=2 units Months Actual Demand (At) Forecast (Ft) Trend (Tt)…
Q: forecast for weeks 7-24 using 6 week weighted moving average
A: Weighted moving average is a forecasting model which helps to identify the forecasting using the…
Q: Forecasted Year Sales Sales 2005 455 415.00 2006 510 427.00 2007 516 451.90 2008 570 471.13 2009 585…
A: Given that: Smoothing constant = 0.6 Starting Forecast = 415 and Year Sales 2005 455 2006 510…
Q: Pumpkin Pies Galore is trying to forecast sales of pies forthe month of December. Demand for pies in…
A: Given data Now, calculating Edith's forecast demand for the December Average for December =
Q: Period Actual 1 12 2 15 16 4 16 Given the information in the following table, Use exponential…
A: Note: - Since the actual data for period 5 is not given, the trend-adjusted forecast can be made by…
Q: Consider the following actual (A,) and forecast (F,) demand levels for a commercial multiline…
A: The forecast for period 5 can be computed as follows:
Q: The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential smoothing method. Last week the forecast was…
A:
Q: DEMAND FORECAST WITH LINEAR REGRESSION Historical demand for a product is: Period MONTH DEMAND x2 XY…
A: Period (x) Month Demand (y) 1 January 12 2 February 11 3 March 15 4 April 12 5 May 16 6…
Q: Week Cheeseburger Sales 1 354 2 344 3 368 4 317 5 361 Based on historical observations…
A:
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A:
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A: Find the given details below: Given details: Week Actual Passenger Miles(in 1000) 1 17 2 21…
Q: We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in…
A: Salespeople are inexperienced with estimate exactness measures. They have no real excuse to be on…
Q: (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Complete the table above, filling in the "Forecast for…
A: Forecast refers to the estimation of the future happening according to the previous and current data…
Q: A large Portland manufacturing would like to forecast the monthly demand for a piece of…
A: Given that: Month Actual Demand 1 14 2 17 3 20 4 21 5 25
Q: ii. The last seven weeks of sales at KC car dealership can be seen in Table 2 below. Table 2 Week…
A: Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 6 29 7 30 8
Q: (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.15, assuming a March forecast of…
A: Given data-
Q: Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the…
A: Given table- Year Sales 1 450 2 502 3 520 4 570 5 575
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: 3 -period moving average forecast = At-1+At-2+At-33 Where, At-1= Actual data of previous period t…
Q: Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclone mountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in…
A: Since you have posted a question with multiple sub-parts, we will solve the first three subparts for…
Q: The company's sales history (in thousands of units) is shown in the table below. Use exponential…
A: Concept and formulas used: FIT = Forcast Including Trend FIT = Ft + Tt Ft = FITt-1 + a…
Q: Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and…
A: Serial No Years Actual sales(At) Forecast sales(Ft) F1 2017 45000 - F2 2018 50000 45000 F3…
Q: (a) Compute the forecast sale using a = 0.20 and a = 0.35 respectively, (b) solve for MAD, SSE, MSE,…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand using previous or historic data or…
Q: A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand, "a = 0.6" and…
A: Given, TAF for first month TAF1 = 434 units Actual demand for first period A1= 488 units Trend T1 =…
Q: I got super lost on this one, the correct answers are shown but not how they solved or got to the…
A: Formula: Answer:
Q: 1. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: constants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing…
A: Note: - Since the data for the 'Volkswagen Beetles' question is not given we will answer the…
Q: Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient demand at the clinic for week…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: The solution for the above is mentioned in the below excel spreadsheet as follows.
Q: A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 21x. What is your forecast for period 7? A. 32.3 B.…
A: Forecasting is the process in which future demand is determined by estimation using previous data or…
Q: Use simple exponential smoothing with a 0.6 to forecast chargers sales for February through May.…
A:
Q: Explain why is accurate forecasting so important to companies that use a continuous replenishment…
A: Forecasting is the practice of making future assumptions based on historical and current data, most…
Q: F1 = F, + a(D, – F,) MA3 = (D1+D2+D3)/3 1+1 Week Calls МАЗ ES Squared Errors with MA3 Squared Errors…
A: 1) The 3-period moving average forecast can be determined in excel as follows: Thus, the forecast…
Q: (3) A weighted average using.60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June (4) Exponential smoothing…
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: 2. Using the same table above, compute the weighted moving average forecast for demand for four…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…
Q: Th e manager of a small health clinic would like to useexponential smoothing to forecast demand for…
A: In exponential smoothing; Here,
Q: Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the firm’s August income. Assume that the…
A: Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is a method that uses measurable, historical data observations,…
Q: Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14,…
A: Given data; Weights ; (3/5) for period 10 (1/5) for period 9 (1/5) for period 8 Demand for ; 15…
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A:
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps with 19 images
- Suppose that a regional express delivery service company wants to estimate the cost of shipping a package (Y) as a function of cargo type, where cargo type includes the following possibilities: fragile, semifragile, and durable. Costs for 15 randomly chosen packages of approximately the same weight and same distance shipped, but of different cargo types, are provided in the file P13_16.xlsx. a. Estimate a regression equation using the given sample data, and interpret the estimated regression coefficients. b. According to the estimated regression equation, which cargo type is the most costly to ship? Which cargo type is the least costly to ship? c. How well does the estimated equation fit the given sample data? How might the fit be improved? d. Given the estimated regression equation, predict the cost of shipping a package with semifragile cargo.Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit adequately (especially to the naked eye) by several trend lines. We discussed the exponential trend line, and the power trend line is discussed in the previous problem. Still another fairly simple trend line is the parabola, a polynomial of order 2 (also called a quadratic). For the demand-price data in the file P13_10.xlsx, fit all three of these types of trend lines to the data, and calculate the MAPE for each. Which provides the best fit? (Hint: Note that a polynomial of order 2 is still another of Excels Trend line options.)The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a supermarket for a one-year period. a. Using a span of 3, forecast the sales of this product for the next 10 weeks with the moving averages method. How well does this method with span 3 forecast the known observations in this series? b. Repeat part a with a span of 10. c. Which of these two spans appears to be more appropriate? Justify your choice.
- The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of rakes at a hardware store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next 30 weeks. Does this method appear to track sales well? If not, what might be the reason?The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?Use @RISK to analyze the sweatshirt situation in Problem 14 of the previous section. Do this for the discrete distributions given in the problem. Then do it for normal distributions. For the normal case, assume that the regular demand is normally distributed with mean 9800 and standard deviation 1300 and that the demand at the reduced price is normally distributed with mean 3800 and standard deviation 1400.
- The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of iPod cases at an electronics store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next six months. Does this method appear to track sales well? If not, what might be the reason?A company manufacturers a product in the United States and sells it in England. The unit cost of manufacturing is 50. The current exchange rate (dollars per pound) is 1.221. The demand function, which indicates how many units the company can sell in England as a function of price (in pounds) is of the power type, with constant 27556759 and exponent 2.4. a. Develop a model for the companys profit (in dollars) as a function of the price it charges (in pounds). Then use a data table to find the profit-maximizing price to the nearest pound. b. If the exchange rate varies from its current value, does the profit-maximizing price increase or decrease? Does the maximum profit increase or decrease?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?