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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The table shows the values found in the error analysis. What method of forecasting would be best to use? What is the forecasted value? MSE forecast for week 13 Time Series 1.08 14.76 3-week MA 3.04 13.67 exp smoothing 11.04 9.5 Group of answer choices A.) Time Series, forecasted value = 14.76 B.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 13.67 C.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 9.5 D.) Time Series, forecasted value = 1.08 E.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 3.04 F.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 11.04National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Month Sales (000 units)Feb. 19Mar. 18Apr. 15May 20Jun. 18Jul. 22Aug. 20 Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: (1)The naive approach. (2)A five-month moving average. (3)A weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.Plot the table and give at least three observations from the plot according to the given data Weeks Calls 3 month Weighted Moving Average Error =Abs (Actual -Forecasted) (Sum of Absolute percent error) 1 50 2 35 3 25 4 40 31.42857143 8.571428571 21.42857143 5 45 35 10 22.22222222 6 35 40.71428571 5.714285714 16.32653061 7 20 38.57142857 18.57142857 92.85714286 8 30 27.85714286 2.142857143 7.142857143 9 35 27.85714286 7.142857143 20.40816327 10 20 31.42857143 11.42857143 57.14285714 11 15 25.71428571 10.71428571 71.42857143 12 40 19.28571429 20.71428571 51.78571429 13 55 30 25 45.45454545 14 35 45 10 28.57142857 15 25 41.42857143 16.42857143 65.71428571 16 55 32.14285714 22.85714286 41.55844156 17 55 43.57142857 11.42857143 20.77922078 18 40 50.71428571…
- Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5 Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week. Week Actual service calls 1 28 2 36 3 38 4 25 5 25 The forecast for week 6 is ___ service calls (round to two decimals and show your work)Exercise # 2 –Calculating MADt, Revised MADt,Error,and the Revised Error :Has the Forecast Improved ? How much has it improved in % terms ? Franklin Henry forecasts demand for an auditing and accounting services group, for an estate planning group ,and a business consulting group.His group forecasts for the preceding six-month(M) period, which were made six months prior to that time, are each based on a level, patternless projection.The following data table shows these forecasts(F) and the actual demand (AD) for each group : Estate Planning Auditing and Accounting Business Consulting (Client –days) (Client –days) (Client –days) M AD F M AD F M AD F 1 120 130 1 260 230 1 120 120 2 80 130…2)Auto sales over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 89, 98, 105, and 97. The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 92, 96, 101, and 100. What was the MAD of the 4-month forecast? (use an excel sheet to make all calaculations and show formulas used in excel)
- Handy, Inc., produces a solar-powered electronic calculator that has experiencedthe following monthly sales history for the first four months of the year, inthousands of units:January 23.3 March 30.3February 72.3 April 15.5a. If the forecast for January was 25, determine the one-step-ahead forecasts forFebruary through May using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of a=.15.b. Repeat the calculation in part (a) for a value of a= .40. What difference in theforecasts do you observe?c. Compute the MSEs for the forecasts you obtained in parts (a) and (b) forFebruary through April. Which value of a gave more accurate forecasts, basedon the MSE?Q5) Monthly sales for a six month period are as follows: Month SalesJan 18,000Feb 22,000Mar 16,000Apr 18,000May 20,000June 24,000 Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches: (1) Four-month moving average; (2) Weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30 for May and .20 for April;(3) Exponential smoothing with α (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72