A well-known brokerage firm executive claimed that 40% of investors are currently confident of meeting their investment goals. An XYZ Investor Optimism Survey, conducted over a two week period, found that in a sample of 400 people, 47% of them said they are confident of meeting their goals. Test the claim that the proportion of people who are confident is larger than 40% at the 0.01 significance level.
Compound Probability
Compound probability can be defined as the probability of the two events which are independent. It can be defined as the multiplication of the probability of two events that are not dependent.
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Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the subject of probability. Although there are many different concepts of probability, probability theory expresses the definition mathematically through a series of axioms. Usually, these axioms express probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure with values ranging from 0 to 1 to a set of outcomes known as the sample space. An event is a subset of these outcomes that is described.
Conditional Probability
By definition, the term probability is expressed as a part of mathematics where the chance of an event that may either occur or not is evaluated and expressed in numerical terms. The range of the value within which probability can be expressed is between 0 and 1. The higher the chance of an event occurring, the closer is its value to be 1. If the probability of an event is 1, it means that the event will happen under all considered circumstances. Similarly, if the probability is exactly 0, then no matter the situation, the event will never occur.
A well-known brokerage firm executive claimed that 40% of investors are currently confident of meeting their investment goals. An XYZ Investor Optimism Survey, conducted over a two week period, found that in a sample of 400 people, 47% of them said they are confident of meeting their goals.
Test the claim that the proportion of people who are confident is larger than 40% at the 0.01 significance level.
The null and alternative hypothesis would be:
H1:μ>0.4H1:μ>0.4
H1:p≠0.4H1:p≠0.4
H1:μ<0.4H1:μ<0.4
H1:p<0.4H1:p<0.4
H1:p>0.4H1:p>0.4
H1:μ≠0.4H1:μ≠0.4
The test is:
The test statistic is: (to 3 decimals)
The p-value is: (to 4 decimals)
Based on this we:
- Fail to reject the null hypothesis
- Reject the null hypothesis
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