a. Using the above information, compute the Net Present Value (NPV) if the company delayed the project for 1 year. b. Holding everything else constant, what is the expected NPV of the decision if the probabilities for the three scenarios (after 1 year) are as follows: high (20%), medium (48%), and low (32%)? c. From your answers in (a) and (b) above, what conclusion can be derived, and why?
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- Austins cell phone manufacturer wants to upgrade their product mix to encompass an exciting new feature on their cell phone. This would require a new high-tech machine. You are excited about his new project and are recommending the purchase to your board of directors. Here is the information you have compiled in order to complete this recommendation: According to the information, the project will last 10 years and require an initial investment of $800,000, depreciated with straight-line over the life of the project until the final value is zero. The firms tax rate is 30% and the required rate of return is 12%. You believe that the variable cost and sales volume may be as much as 10% higher or lower than the initial estimate. Your boss understands the risks but asks you to explain the alternatives in a brief memo to the board, Write a memo to the Board of Directors objectively weighing out the pros and cons of this project and make your recommendation(s).Tropical Sweets is considering a project that will cost $70 million and will generate expected cash flows of $30 million per year for 3 years. The cost of capital for this type of project is 10%, and the risk-free rate is 6%. After discussions with the marketing department, you learn that there is a 30% chance of high demand with associated future cash flows of $45 million per year. There is also a 40% chance of average demand with cash flows of $30 million per year as well as a 30% chance of low demand with cash flows of only $15 million per year. What is the expected NPV?The J.R. Ryland Computer Company is considering a plant expansion to enable the company to begin production of a new computer product. The companys president must determine whether to make the expansion a medium- or large-scale project. Demand for the new product is uncertain, which for planning purposes may be low demand, medium demand, or high demand. The probability estimates for demand are 0.20, 0.50, and 0.30, respectively. Letting x and y indicate the annual profit in thousands of dollars, the firms planners developed the following profit forecasts for the medium-and large-scale expansion projects. a. Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit? b. Compute the variance for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty?
- Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway’s president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($5 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $59 – $5 – $20 = $34 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do? What is the expected value of your strategy? What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy.Friedman Company is considering installing a new IT system. The cost of the new system is estimated to be 2,250,000, but it would produce after-tax savings of 450,000 per year in labor costs. The estimated life of the new system is 10 years, with no salvage value expected. Intrigued by the possibility of saving 450,000 per year and having a more reliable information system, the president of Friedman has asked for an analysis of the projects economic viability. All capital projects are required to earn at least the firms cost of capital, which is 12 percent. Required: 1. Calculate the projects internal rate of return. Should the company acquire the new IT system? 2. Suppose that savings are less than claimed. Calculate the minimum annual cash savings that must be realized for the project to earn a rate equal to the firms cost of capital. Comment on the safety margin that exists, if any. 3. Suppose that the life of the IT system is overestimated by two years. Repeat Requirements 1 and 2 under this assumption. Comment on the usefulness of this information.Falkland, Inc., is considering the purchase of a patent that has a cost of $50,000 and an estimated revenue producing life of 4 years. Falkland has a cost of capital of 8%. The patent is expected to generate the following amounts of annual income and cash flows: A. What is the NPV of the investment? B. What happens if the required rate of return increases?
- Jasmine Manufacturing is considering a project that will require an initial investment of $52,000 and is expected to generate future cash flows of $10,000 for years 1 through 3, $8,000 for years 4 and 5, and $2,000 for years 6 through 10. What is the payback period for this project?Spencer Enterprises is attempting to choose among a series of new investment alternatives. The potential investment alternatives, the net present value of the future stream of returns, the capital requirements, and the available capital funds over the next three years are summarized as follows: Develop and solve an integer programming model for maximizing the net present value. Assume that only one of the warehouse expansion projects can be implemented. Modify your model from part (a). Suppose that if test marketing of the new product is carried out, the advertising campaign also must be conducted. Modify your formulation from part (b) to reflect this new situation.The Yoran Yacht Company (YYC), a prominent sailboat builder in Newport, may design a new 30-foot sailboat based on the winged keels first introduced on the 12-meter yachts that raced for the Americas Cup. First, YYC would have to invest 10,000 at t = 0 for the design and model tank testing of the new boat. YYCs managers believe there is a 60% probability that this phase will be successful and the project will continue. If Stage 1 is not successful, the project will be abandoned with zero salvage value. The next stage, if undertaken, would consist of making the molds and producing two prototype boats. This would cost 500,000 at t = 1. If the boats test well, YYC would go into production. If they do not, the molds and prototypes could be sold for 100,000. The managers estimate the probability is 80% that the boats will pass testing and that Stage 3 will be undertaken. Stage 3 consists of converting an unused production line to produce the new design. This would cost 1 million at t = 2. If the economy is strong at this point, the net value of sales would be 3 million; if the economy is weak, the net value would be 1.5 million. Both net values occur at t = 3, and each state of the economy has a probability of 0.5. YYCs corporate cost of capital is 12%. a. Assume this project has average risk. Construct a decision tree and determine the projects expected NPV. b. Find the projects standard deviation of NPV and coefficient of variation of NPV. If YYCs average project had a CV of between 1.0 and 2.0, would this project be of high, low, or average stand-alone risk?
- The Siler Construction Company is about to bid on a new industrial construction project. To formulate their bid, the company needs to estimate the time required for the project. Based on past experience, management expects that the project will require at least 24 months, and could take as long as 48 months if there are complications. The most likely scenario is that the project will require 30 months. a. Assume that the actual time for the project can be approximated using a triangular probability distribution. What is the probability that the project will take less than 30 months? b. What is the probability that the project will take between 28 and 32 months? c. To submit a competitive bid, the company believes that if the project takes more than 36 months, then the company will lose money on the project. Management does not want to bid on the project if there is greater than a 25% chance that they will lose money on this project. Should the company bid on this project?Covington Pharmacies has decided to automate its insurance claims process. Two networked computer systems are being considered. The systems have an expected life of two years. The net cash flows associated with the systems are as follows. The cash benefits represent the savings created by switching from a manual to an automated system. The companys cost of capital is 10 percent. Required: 1. Compute the NPV and the IRR for each investment. 2. Show that the project with the larger NPV is the correct choice for the company.A grocery store is considering the purchase of a new refrigeration unit with an Initial Investment of $412,000, and the store expects a return of $100,000 in year one, $72000 in years two and three, $65,000 in years four and five, and $38,000 in year six and beyond, what is the payback period?