Adaptive expectations theory O a) holds that people's expectations of future inflation are based on their most recent experiences. O b) explains why prices are flexible in the long run. Oc) holds that people form expectations perfectly. d) explains the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation. Oe) holds that people form expectations on the basis of all available information.

Adaptive expectations theory O a) holds that people's expectations of future inflation are based on their most recent experiences. O b) explains why prices are flexible in the long run. Oc) holds that people form expectations perfectly. d) explains the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation. Oe) holds that people form expectations on the basis of all available information.

MACROECONOMICS

14th Edition

ISBN:9781337794985

Author:Baumol

Publisher:Baumol

Chapter17: The Trade-off Between Inflation And Unemploy

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 6DQ

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Consider the Phillips Curve shown in Figure 1. The current inflation rate is I%, and the current unemployment rate is U%. Suppose the inflation rate suddenly falls by half. How will this inflation drop affect the unemployment rate in the short run? A) The unemployment rate will decrease. B) The unemployment rate will increase. C) The unemployment rate will not change. D) Impossible to say.
Consider the expectations adjusted Phillips’s curve and assume that expected inflation is given by πet = πt-1. Suppose that unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate and that π=10%. The central bank decides that inflation is too high and that, starting in year t, it will maintain the unemployment rate 1% point above the natural rate until the inflation rate has decreased to 2%. (a) What is the sacrifice ratio in this economy [Hint: the sacrifice ratio is the percentage of a year’s excess unemployment needed to reduce inflation by 1%. For a Philips curve given as πet − πt −1 = −α (ut − un ), the sacrifice ratio is 1/α]? (b) Compute the rate of inflation for year t, t+1, t+2, t+3, …, t+8. (c) For how many years must the central bank keep the unemployment rate above the natural rate of unemployment? Is the implied sacrifice ratio consistent with your answer to (a)?
Consider the Phillips Curve shown in Figure 1. The current inflation rate is I%, and the current unemployment rate is U%. Suppose the inflation rate suddenly doubles. How will this inflation jump affect the unemployment rate in the short run? A) The unemployment rate will decrease. B) The unemployment rate will increase. C) The unemployment rate will not change. D) Impossible to say.
Suppose the Phillips curve in Country A is estimated to be ??=???−0.25(??−?∗?)πt=πte−0.25(ut−ut∗)(supplied in picture) The natural rate of unemployment in the year 2020 equals 3%. Inflation in the year 2020 is expected to be around 1%. The Okun’s coefficient in Country A equals 2. The central bank of Country A is considering three possible monetary policy scenarios for the year 2020. Scenario 1: the central bank performs a monetary contraction, and the inflation rate becomes 0.5%. Scenario 2: the central bank performs a monetary expansion, and the inflation rate becomes 1.5%. Scenario 3: the central bank keeps monetary policy unchanged, and the inflation rate matches expected inflation and equals 1%. For each of these policy scenarios, 1) Determine the corresponding rate of cyclical unemployment in 2020 2) Determine the actual unemployment ??ut that would result in 2020 3) Use Okun’s law to determine the corresponding…
3. Explain how a rise in Government expending affects:3.1. The Phillips curve in the short run? How do you think are employers and employees going to react to this policy under adaptive expectations? 3.2. If the demand policy continues to apply how this is going to affect the Philips curve in the long run? 3.3. What about if the agents have rational expectations, is this policy effective?
Using the inflation-unemployment version of the Phillips curve with adaptive expectations, ifaggregate demand increasesA)workers will realize that inflation has changed in the long run but not in the short run.B)the SRPC will immediately shift to the right as workers expect higher pricesC)workers will mistakenly work less, resulting in a decrease in inflation and increase inunemploymentD)actual inflation will be less than expected inflation, resulting in workers mistakenly workingmore and unemployment falling.
Suppose that an economy has the Phillips curve π = π−1 − 0.5( u − 0.06). a. What is the natural rate of unemployment? b. Graph the short-run and long-run relationships between inflation and unemployment. c. How much cyclical unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation by 5 percentage points? Using Okun’s law, compute the sacrifice ratio. d. Inflation is running at 10 percent. The Fed wants to reduce it to 5 percent. Give two scenarios that will achieve that goal.
1. An economy has the following equation for the Phillips Curve: π = Eπ − 0.5(u − 6)People form expectations of inflation by taking a weighted average of the previous two years of inflation: Okun’s law for this economy is: Eπ = 0.7π−1 + 0.3π−2 (Y −Y−1)/(Y-1)=3.0−2.0(u−u−1) Th economy begins at its natural rate of unemployment with a stable inflation rate of 5 percent. Graph the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment that this economy faces. Label the point where the economy begins as A. (Be sure to give numerical values for point A.) A fall in aggregate demand leads to a recession, causing the unemployment rate to rise 4 percentage points above its natural rate. On your graph in part (b), label the point the economy experiences that year as point B.(Be sure to give numerical values.) Unemployment remains at this high level for two years (the initial year described in part (c) and one more), after which it returns to its natural rate. Create a table showing…
Suppose that the Phillips curve is given byπ t = π te − α ( u t − u n ) ,where the estimated value of the natural rate of unemployment, un = 4.5% and α = 0.4. The expectations are myopic (i.e. fully backward), thus πte = πt−1.a) What is the sacrifice ratio in this economy? Explain in words.Suppose that at time t = 0 unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate (i.e. u0 = 4.5%) and π0 = 7.5%. The central bank decides that 7.5% inflation is too high and that starting in year 1 it will decrease inflation to 3.5%.
Suppose the long-run Phillips curve shifts to the right. For any given rate of money growth and inflation, how would unemployment and output change? a. Unemployment would be higher, and output would be lower. b. Unemployment would be higher, and output would be higher. c. Unemployment would be lower, and output would be lower. d. Unemployment would be lower, and output would be higher.
Expectations often play cruel jokes on the market participants. Assume that everyone (buyers and sellers) expect future gold prices to increase. Use the four-step process of finding equilibrium, please be sure to describe what (if anything) happens to the current demand and/or supply of gold, which way(s) do the corresponding curve(s) shift, and what happens as a result to the equilibrium price and quantity of gold exchanged.
Step 1) What happens in the short run to equilibrium price level and aggregate quantity & why? (Think about which curve shifts in which direction and why & where is the new short run equilibrium?)Step 2) What happens to the initial equality between price level and price expectations because of COVID19?Step 3) What happens to price expectations in the long run? (The market adjustment phase)Step 4) What happens next in the market adjustment phase? (Think about which curve shifts in which direction and why & where is the new short run equilibrium?)Step 5) What policies (you have to say who takes these policies; congress/federal reserve) will be taken to stop the market adjustment from kicking in?