All of the following are disadvantages for using simulation in risk analysis, except O Simulations can be quite time-consuming to formulate. O Simulations can be used when analytical solutions are difficult to obtain. O Simulations introduce a source of randomness not present in analytical solutions (sampling error). O Simulations are so easily applied that they are often used when analytical solutions can be more easily obtained at considerably less cost.
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- Which decision rule is most concerned with downside risk? A) Expected monetary value B) Maximax C) Maximin D) None of the aboveI am in possession of two coins. One is fair so that it lands heads (H) and tails (T)with equal probability while the other coin is weighted so that it always lands H. Bothcoins are magical: if either is flipped and lands H then a $1 bill appears in your wallet,but when it lands T nothing happens. You may only flip a coin once per period. Theinterest rate is i per period. You are risk-neutral and thus only concern yourself withexpected values (and not variance). For simplicity, in the questions below assumeyou will live forever.1. How much are you willing to pay for such a coin that you know is fair? 2. How much are you willing to pay for such a coin that you know is weighted? 3. I currently own the coins and know which is fair and which is weighted, but youcannot tell which is which. You may make an offer to purchase a coin of yourchoosing, which I am free to accept or reject. What is the most you are willingto offer? Explain how you arrived at this answer.Risks and returns are generally __________ correlated. a. inversely b. negatively c. not d. positively.
- The business manager decides to access the latest macroeconomic predictions from the Bank of England. This provides him with the following probabilities: Recession (15%), Low Growth (30%), Medium Growth (35%), and High Growth (20%). Which option is preferred according to the expected monetary value (EMV) criterion? What attitude to risk does this represent?Your firm uses a continuous review system and operates52 weeks per year. One of the SKUs has the followingcharacteristics.Demand 1D2 = 20,000 units>yearOrdering cost 1S2 = $40>orderHolding cost 1H2 = $2>unit>yearLead time 1L2 = 2 weeksCycle@service level = 95 percentDemand is normally distributed, with a standard deviation ofweekly demand of 100 units.Current on-hand inventory is 1,040 units, with no scheduledreceipts and no backorders.a. Calculate the item’s EOQ. What is the average time, inweeks, between orders?b. Find the safety stock and reorder point that provide a95 percent cycle-service level c. For these policies, what are the annual costs of (i) holdingthe cycle inventory and (ii) placing orders?d. A withdrawal of 15 units just occurred. Is it time to reor-der? If so, how much should be ordered?Assume that you are the team leader of strategic planning and advisory board of M/S XYZ company. The company has decided to enter the market with a new electronic product. Your team conducted a marker research and presented the following two strategies along with the necessary data. Delete Strategy A: Build a large plant with an estimated cost of 20,00,000 Rials. This alternative can face two states of nature on market conditions: High demand with a probability of 0.70, or a low demand with a probability of 0.30. If the demand is high, the company can expect to receive an annual revenue of 5,00,000 Rials for 7 years. If the demand were low the annual revenue would be only 1,00,000 Rials. Strategy B: Build a small plant with an estimated cost of 10,00,000 Rials. This alternative also faces two states of nature: High demand with a probability of 0.70, or a low demand with a probability of 0.30,lf the demand is high the company can expect to receive an annual revenue of 3,00,000 per annum…
- 2.4.1 Total Cost in Material SelectionIn many cases, economic selection among materials cannot be based solely on the costs ofmaterials. Frequently, a change in materials will affect the design and processing costs, and shipping costsmay also be altered.Care should be taken in making economic selections between materials to ensure that anydifferences in shipping costs, yields, or resulting scrap are taken into account. Commonly, alternativematerials do not come in the same stock sizes, such as sheet sizes and bar lengths. This may considerablyaffect the yield obtained from a given weight of material. Similarly, the resulting scrap may differ forvarious materials.In addition to deciding what material a product should be made of, there are often alternativemethods or machines that can be used to produce the product, which, in turn, can impact processingcosts. What could be the factors affecting the cost of materials that one should consider?Canuck Oil Corporation is a Canadian crude oil producer. Today is July 15. Canuck’s estimated oil production level in three months’ time will be 100,000 barrels. The current spot price for crude oil is US$90.29 per barrel. Between January 15 and now, crude oil prices have fluctuated from a high of $110.82 to a low of $90.56. Due to the unstable nature of crude oil prices, Canuck Oil’s financial manager, Mr. Petro Stark would like to hedge the crude price risk using crude oil futures contracts. Petro found the following information on futures contracts expiring in September, October, and November: Delivery month Last Change Prior settlement Open High Low Volume September 90.79 –0.58 91.37 91.24 91.44 89.76 9067 October 92.18 –0.48 92.66 92.89 95.22 89.30 5229 November 90.13 –0.35 90.48 90.22 90.55 89.08 1685 Contract size: 1,000 barrels Contract currency: US dollar September expiry: September 16 October…Reactors `R’ Us operates a nuclear power plant in Potsdam.In the event of reactor failure, there would be major damages to the North Country. The company can reduce the probability of failure through proper maintenance of the facility. The marginal cost of maintenance is increasing in the amount of maintenance done (and thus decreasing in the probability of an accident). We can write this marginal cost curve as MAC=2-10p (where 0<p<1, and represents the probability of a failure over a 50 year period). The marginal expected damages are an increasing function of the probability of an accident so that MD=2.2+10p. Provide a graph or graphs to illustrate your analysis/answers to the following questions. A. What is the efficient probability of reactor failure? B. If “Reactors ‘R’ Us” thinks that, in the event of reactor failure, they will NOT be found liable for damages, what probability of failure will they choose? C. If “Reactors ‘R’ Us” thinks that, in the…
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