An operational risk analyst is using the POT methodology to estimate VaR. Parameters are provided in the following tables: Loss threshold (%) μ. = 2 Number of observations N = 1000 Observations in excess of the threshold n = 9 Scale parameter β = 0.85 Shape parameter (tail index) = 0.3 - Calculate VaR at the 99% confidence level.

An operational risk analyst is using the POT methodology to estimate VaR. Parameters are provided in the following tables: Loss threshold (%) μ. = 2 Number of observations N = 1000 Observations in excess of the threshold n = 9 Scale parameter β = 0.85 Shape parameter (tail index) = 0.3 - Calculate VaR at the 99% confidence level.

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 84P: Software development is an inherently risky and uncertain process. For example, there are many...

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Software development is an inherently risky and uncertain process. For example, there are many examples of software that couldnt be finished by the scheduled release datebugs still remained and features werent ready. (Many people believe this was the case with Office 2007.) How might you simulate the development of a software product? What random inputs would be required? Which outputs would be of interest? Which measures of the probability distributions of these outputs would be most important?
A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year is related to the number of employees by the regression equation Y = 6.6 + 0.098*X. R-Square is 0.72. The regression is based on 20 annual observations. The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year. How many accidents do you project? 47.04 accidents 8.66 accidents 53.64 accidents 72% of the 480 workers 28.56 accidents
Hi is this correct?The management of an oil company is trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular fieldin the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $600 thousand to drill in the selected field. Themanagement believes that if oil is found in this field, its estimated value will be $3400 thousand. Atpresent, this oil company believes that there is a 45% chance that the selected field actually containsoil. Before drilling, the oil company can hire a team of geologists to perform seismographic tests at acost of $55 thousand. Based on similar tests in other fields, the tests have a 25% false negative rate(no oil predicted when oil is present) and a 15% false positive rate (oil predicted when no oil ispresent).A. Assume the oil company wants to maximize its expected net earnings. Please utilize decisiontree analysis to determine its optimal strategy.B. Calculate the expected value of the information (EVI/EVSI) provided by the team ofgeologists.C. Calculate and interpret EVPI…
A metropolitan school system consists of three districts—north, south, and central. The north districtcontains 25% of all students, the south district contains 40%, and the central district contains35%. A minimum-competency test was given to all students; 10% of the north district studentsfailed, 15% of the south district students failed, and 5% of the central district students failed. What is the probability that a student selected at random failed the test?
Based on a sample of 80 recent MBA graduates (40 male and 40 female), the following information was made available regarding their annual salaries. The standard deviation of salaries for the male graduates was $40,000 and that for the female graduates was $25,000. a.) For the male graduates, what is the probability of obtaining a sample mean salary within $10,000 of the population mean? Show work. b.) Consider the same question in (a) but for the female graduates. In which case, males or females, do we have a higher probability of obtaining a sample estimate within $10,000 of the population mean? Why? Show work. c.) Suppose that the sample mean salary of females is $125,000. Develop a 95% confidence interval estimate for the mean salary of all female graduates.
41.The ______ are (is) used to determine the amount of money that an organization would save if it used a particular test in place of the test it currently uses to select employees. a. Brogden-Cronbach-Gleser formula b. Taylor-Russell Tables c.expectancy charts d. Lawshe tables 42.When the criterion validity coefficient is ____, and the selection ratio is ____, a test will have the most utility in selecting successful employees. a. large / large b. large / small c.small / small d. small / large 43.A test is considered to have _____ if there are race differences in test scores that are unrelated to the construct being measured. a. differential validity b. measurement bias c.selection bias d. adverse impact 44.If the selection rate for any of the protected groups is less than 80% of the…
The chart below is a summary of the main results of a test data set representing the population observed purchasing a virtual digital assistant. What does the accuracy rate indicate? Metrics Metric Value Accuracy (#correct) 178 Accuracy (%correct) 85.6 Specificity 0.88219 Sensitivity (Recall) 0.6 Precision 0.82400 F1 Score 0.88213 Success Class 1 Success Probability 0.4 Multiple Choice 85.6% of the population has purchased a virtual assistant. 60% of the observations are correctly classified. 85.6% of the observations are correctly classified. 14.4% of the observations are correctly classified. Explain all the incorrect answers also
Why is it important to do a sensitivity analysis after a solution that is optimal under the assumed parameter values has been found?
A suburb of Dayton, Ohio, has four local dry cleaners that compete with each other on the basis of price and service speed. Each of them can perform the same basic services at the same level of quality. The following table provides the price that each dry cleaner charges to clean a two-piece suit, as well as the quoted number of days that the service will take. Dry Cleaner Price Number of Days A $ 8.00 3 B $ 9.50 3 C $ 9.00 2 D $ 7.50 4 Which of these dry cleaners are NOT on the efficient frontier?
The management of an oil company is trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular fieldin the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $600 thousand to drill in the selected field. Themanagement believes that if oil is found in this field, its estimated value will be $3400 thousand. Atpresent, this oil company believes that there is a 45% chance that the selected field actually containsoil. Before drilling, the oil company can hire a team of geologists to perform seismographic tests at acost of $55 thousand. Based on similar tests in other fields, the tests have a 25% false negative rate(no oil predicted when oil is present) and a 15% false positive rate (oil predicted when no oil ispresent).A. Assume the oil company wants to maximize its expected net earnings. Please utilize decisiontree analysis to determine its optimal strategy.B. Calculate the expected value of the information (EVI/EVSI) provided by the team ofgeologists.C. Calculate and interpret EVPI for this decision…
Oilco must determine whether or not to drill for oil in the South China Sea. It costs $90,000 to drill for oil. If oil is found, the revenue is estimated to be $700,000. At present, Oilco believes there is a 40% chance that the field contains oil. Before drilling, Oilco can hire (for $20,000) a geologist to obtain more information about the likelihood that the field will contain oil. There is a 70% chance that the geologist will issue a favorable report and a 30% chance of an unfavorable report. Given a favorable report, there is an 60% chance that the field contains oil. Given an unfavorable report, there is a 10% chance that the field contains oil. Determine the optimal strategy, the expected profit, EVSI and EVPI. What is the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI)? Select one: a. EVSI = $41,000 b. EVSI = $42,000 c. EVSI = $26,000 d. EVSI = $20,000
At the beginning of each day, a patient in the hospital is classifed into one of the three conditions: good, fair or critical. At the beginning of the next day, the patient will either still be in the hospital and be in good, fair or critical condition or will be discharged in one of three conditions: improved, unimproved, or dead. The transistion probabilities for this situation are Good Fair Critical Good 0.65 0.20 0.05 Fair 0.50 0.30 0.12 Critical 0.51 0.25 0.20 Improved Unimproved Dead Good 0.06 0.03 0.01 Fair 0.03 0.02 0.03 Critical 0.01 0.01 0.02 For example a patient who begins the day in fair condition has a 12% chance of being in critical condition the next day and a 3%…