B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COSTDecenaine the cousendagram.6090601/3(45)45994050503020/24050B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. Ifdemand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a NetPresent Value of $48M.The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at$22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand andrealize a NPV of $50M.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will resultin a NPV of $72M.a) Analyze and solve this problem using a decision treeb) What is the Maximin Alternativeandc) Compute the EVPI

Given data: A consultant’s report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80…

Answered: B-1. Which is more desirable assuming…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 68P

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Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.
The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?
Cachora Dynamics Corp (CDC) has designed a new integrated circuit that will allow it to enter, if it wishes, the microcomputer field. Otherwise, it can sell its rights for $15 million. If it chooses to build computers, the profitability of this project depends on the company's ability to market them during the first year. Two levels of sales are foreseen as two possible outcomes: selling 10,000 computers in case of low demand, but if it is successful it can sell up to 100,000 units (high demand). The cost of installing the production line is $6 million. The difference between the selling price and the variable cost of each computer is $600. a) Develop a formulation for decision analysis and use the non-probabilistic decision rules: Maximin and Minimax. b) Assume that the probability of high demand (p) is 50% and for low demand (1 - p) is 50%, apply the probabilistic criteria: Maximum expected value, Minimum loss of opportunity. c) Determine the VEIP. d) Carry out a sensitivity…
A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40.a. Analyze using a tree diagram.
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The Math Club is selling pies on March 14th as a fundraiser. Let Q be the number of pies they make and sell. The total cost, C(Q) in dollars, for making Q pies is given by: C(Q) = 36 + 2Q. Sales price is 5 dollars for each pie. What is the additional cost to make 21 pies instead of 20 pies?
A food company is considering three different salad dressings to introduce nationally, Dressing A, B, and C. They also have the option to not introduce any dressing this year. The profits from dressings A, B, and C are $1,144,712, $1,515,938, and $2,525,542 respectively if the national market is favorable. However, if the national market is unfavorable, the losses are $555,615, $758,875, and $912,435 respectively. Historical data shows a probability of 0.568 for a favorable national market. The company can test the market for salad dressings in selected geographic areas before introducing them nationally. The cost of the test market is $53,331. In the past, the probability of a negative test market was 0.354. Given a positive test market, a favorable national market was actually observed with a probability of 0.745. Given a negative test market, a favorable national market was actually observed with a probability of 0.304. Determine if the company should test the market before…
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#28Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon hasbeen thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan’s problem is to decide howlarge her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a numberof marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susandeveloped the following table: GOOD FAIR POORSIZE OF MARKET MARKET MARKETFIRST STATION ($) ($) ($)Small 50,000 20,000 –10,000Medium 80,000 30,000 –20,000Large 100,000 30,000 –40,000Very large 300,000 25,000 –160,000For example, if Susan constructs a…

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