alternatives big average small large stock $22000 $ 12000 $-2000 average stock $14000 $10000 $6000 small stock $9000 $8000 $4000 the probabilities associated with states of nature are 0.3 for a big demand, 0.5 for an average demand, and 0.2 for a small demand. how do you compute expected monetary value (EMV) and expected value of perfect value (EVPI) ? a) determine the alternative that provides andrew the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). b} compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). compute EMV AND EVPI?

alternatives big average small large stock $22000 $ 12000 $-2000 average stock $14000 $10000 $6000 small stock $9000 $8000 $4000 the probabilities associated with states of nature are 0.3 for a big demand, 0.5 for an average demand, and 0.2 for a small demand. how do you compute expected monetary value (EMV) and expected value of perfect value (EVPI) ? a) determine the alternative that provides andrew the greatest expected monetary value (EMV). b} compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). compute EMV AND EVPI?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 46P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
A manager would like to know the total cost of a chase strategy that matches the forecast belowusing a steady regular production rate of 200 units a month, a maximum of 20 units per month ofovertime, and subcontracting as needed to make up any shortages. The unit costs are:Regular production = $35Overtime = $70Subcontracting = $80Month 1 2 3 4 5 6Forecast 230 200 240 240 250 240
eferring to the pay-off table, determine which alternative would be chosen under each of these strategies: Possible future demand in OMR Alternative Low Medium High A 12 15 15 B 10 13 16 C 6 8 19 For the data in above table, assume probabilities of: (low demand) = 0.15, (medium demand) = 0.55, and (high demand) = 0.3. Using a Minimax regret approach the value of the lowest regret is. (Write the number only)
Camille forecasts to sell 575 units of the perfume she is selling by the first week of December. At the end of the 1st week of December, she was able to disposed 500 perfumes at Php150 each. Of these 500 units, she gave a total of 20 giveaways. The total cost for each perfume is Php120. Determine Camille’s net sales volume. *4802075500 Let’s say that last November you have sold 10,000 pieces of chrysanthemum at 25 pesos each. For every piece sold, you will be given a commission of 10%. How much was your total commission? *225,00025,00010,0002.50250,000
After reading about economic predictions, Debbie Gibson (see problem #4) has assigned the probabilities that the economy will be strong, average, and weak at 0.2, 0.35, and 0.45 respectively. a) Using EMVs, what option should Debbie choose? What is the maximum EMV? b) Using EOL, what option should Debbie choose? What is the minimum EOL? c) Compute the EVPI and show that it is the same as the minimum EOL.
an Shields Communications, Inc., a cellular communications provider based in Michigan, charges $86 per month for an all you can talk service plan. The company plans to increase marketing expenditure next year, but wants to determine the current CLV before making this decision. Variable costs before marketing are $28 per account per month and monthly retention expenditures are $12 per account. Ian Shields Communication's annual attrition rate is 17%, with an annual discount rate of 15%.
A method of estimating future demand usedfor decision making in order to set reasonable targets and control orlimit uncertainties or risks.
Write a paragraph to explain to your CEO that based on using regression analysis, through using the solver tool of excel, recalculate the optimum units to produced this month is 800 pro 200 mini to have the maximize revenue of $174,400.00. Explain what/why would it be if you make any changes in the units to stay within the constraints that you have it would produce less money. Screenshot attached
Leah Johnson, director of Urgent Care of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide low-cost flu shots but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time nurse or by using part-time nurses. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: States of Nature (demand) Alternatives Low Medium High Hire full−time $320 $480 $700 Hire part−time $0 $350 $1,200 Probabilities 0.15 0.45 0.40 Part 2 a) The alternative with the least expected cost is ▼ a. Hire part-time b. Hire full-time The expected price of this alternative is $_______ (enter your answer as a whole number). Part 4 b) The appropriate decision tree for Leah Johnson is presented in Figure____?
Daniel Grady is thefinancial advisor for a number of professional athletes.An analysis of the long-term goals for many of theseathletes has resulted in a recommendation to purchasestocks with some of the income that they have set aside for investments. Five stocks have been identified as hav-ing very favorable expectations for future performance. Although the expected return is important in theseinvestments, the risk, as measured by the beta of the stock, is also important. (A high value of beta indicatesthat the stock has a relatively high risk.) The expectedreturn and the beta for five stocks are as follows: Stock 1 2 3 4 5 Expected Return (%) 11.0 9.0 6.5 15.0 13.0 Beta 1.20 0.85 0.55 1.40 1.25 Daniel would like to minimize the beta of the stockportfolio (calculated using a weighted average ofthe amounts put into the different stocks) whilemaintaining an expected return of at least 11%.Since future conditions may change, Daniel hasdecided that no more than 35% of the…