Bob Smith, president of BS Electronics, Inc., has two design options for his new line of cathode ray tubes (CRTs). The forecast for the CRTs is 100,000 units annually. The company will make 100,000 units using one of the two designs at a cost of $75 each. Good CRTs can be sold, but bad CRTs are destroyed and have no salvage value. (Ignore any disposal cost issues for the moment.) The company can sell good CRTs for $150. Design option A has a .90 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs per 100 and a .10 probability of yielding 64 good CRTs per 100. The design will cost $1,000,000. Design option B has a .80 probability of yielding 64 good CRTs per 100 and a .20 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs per 100. The design will cost $1,350,000. a. Draw and label the decision tree (for two design options with two possible yields each). b. Calculate the first-year payoff for each option. [Payoff = Annual Revenues – annual manufacturing costs – design costs] c. Calculate the expected payoff for each of the two design options. d. Determine which option Bob should choos
Bob Smith, president of BS Electronics, Inc., has two design options for his new line of cathode ray tubes (CRTs). The forecast for the CRTs is 100,000 units annually. The company will make 100,000 units using one of the two designs at a cost of $75 each. Good CRTs can be sold, but bad CRTs are destroyed and have no salvage value. (Ignore any disposal cost issues for the moment.) The company can sell good CRTs for $150.
Design option A has a .90 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs per 100 and a .10 probability of yielding 64 good CRTs per 100. The design will cost $1,000,000.
Design option B has a .80 probability of yielding 64 good CRTs per 100 and a .20 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs per 100. The design will cost $1,350,000.
a. Draw and label the decision tree (for two design options with two possible yields each).
b. Calculate the first-year payoff for each option. [Payoff = Annual Revenues – annual manufacturing costs – design costs]
c. Calculate the expected payoff for each of the two design options.
d. Determine which option Bob should choose.
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