Consider the following time series data.Month 1 2 3Value 24 13 20(a) Construct a time series plot.3025-120152Month4What type of pattern exists in the data?The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.O The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.35O The data appear to follow a trend pattern.O The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.5766(b) Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this time series.Time SeriesValue3025252020-15mimi ww15-10+10-500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8MonthCompute MSE.MSE 18.092413201219231551917.2517.612 19 23 15Forecast18.5061xWhat is the forecast for month 8?126x7xxx3000 1 23 4 5Month78302520-151050 123 4 5Month678OO✓0013 4Month5 6+780 (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)Time SeriesValueMonth12لیا4567Month1224313.420512619Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)MSE=What is the forecast for month 8? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)23(d) Compare the three-month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE?O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the three-month moving average.O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the three-month moving average.15The three-month moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.2.O The three-month moving average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.2.(e) Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)Time SeriesValue2413.20241217.6192315Forecast2419x18.50Forecast17.617.25xXXDoes a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4.The exponential smoothing using a = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using α = 0.2.O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using α = 0.2.O The exponential smoothing using a = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using a = 0.4.

Time series plot can be constructed as follows: This gives the following plot as output: Therefore…

Answered: Consider the following time series…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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consider the following time series data.t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7yt10 9 7 8 6 4 4a. construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?b. develop the linear trend equation for this time series.c. What is the forecast for t = 8?
After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company began an upward climb of record sales. Suppose the figures shown here are the DeBourgh monthly sales figures from January 2001 through December 2009 (in $1,000s). a) Produce a time series plot. Are there any trends evident in the data? Does DeBourgh have a seasonal component to its sales? b) Deseasonalize the data using Multiplicative model with a 0.5 weighted moving average. Produce a time series plot of the deseasonalized data and add a trendline. c) Forecast the sales from January to December of the year 2010. d) Include a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurrinG Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 January 139.7 165.1 177.8 228.6 266.7 431.8 381 431.8 495.3 February 114.3 177.8 203.2 254 317.5 457.2 406.4 444.5 533.4 March 101.6 177.8 228.6 266.7 368.3 457.2 431.8 495.3 635 April 152.4 203.2…
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7.
Consider the following time series data Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Value 90 89 86 91 90 91 88 86 91 93 90 88 a) Construct a time series plot in Excel. Label the axes and graph. c) Develop a smoothing model forecast with α = 0.35. Compute MSE and forecast for month 13 d) Which model is the better predictor? Why?
consider the following time series data.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15a. compute MSe using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. Whatis the forecast for month 8?b. compute MSe using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the nextperiod. What is the forecast for month 8?c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?
Consider the following time series data: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 26 15 22 14 21 25 17 PART 1.Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period and then calculate the forecast for month 8. PART 2.Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?
Consider the following time seriesweek 1 2 3 4 5 6 value 18 13 16 11 17 14 a) Construct a time series plot? What type of pattern exists in the datab) Develop the three week moving average forecasts for this time series, then compute the measures of forecasts accurecy
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 15 13 15 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 15 4 13 5 15 6 15 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Do not round intermediate calculations. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 15 4 13 5 15 6 15 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the…
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The Vintage Restaurant, on Captive Island near Fort Meyers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its second year of operation. Below are the sales for those two years (in ten thousands of dollars). Month First Year Second Year January 57 61 February 51 75 March 58 54 April 57 56 May 68 62 June 72 71 July 60 59 August 51 75 September 68 68 October 51 50 November 71 64 December 75 58 a) Construct a time-series plot in excel. (Label axes and graph) b) Develop a six month moving average. Compute MSE and forecast the amount of sales for the next month. c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values. Compute MSE and forecast for the next month. d) Compare the result for the six month average and exponential smoothing. Which appears to provide a better…

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