Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 21 10 17 9 Value 4 What is the forecast for month 8? 12 5 6 7 16 20 12 (a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. MSE = 60.5 (b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = 29.96 X What is the forecast for month 8? (c) Which method appears to provide the better forecast? O The average of all the previous values provides a better forecast, because its forecast for month 8 is larger than the month 8 forecast using the most recent value. The most recent value provides a better forecast, because its forecast for month 8 is smaller than the month 8 forecast using the average of all the previous values. O The most recent value provides a better forecast, because its MSE is smaller than the MSE using the average of all the previous values. Ⓒ The average of all the previous values provides a better forecast, because its MSE is smaller than the MSE using the most recent value.
Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 21 10 17 9 Value 4 What is the forecast for month 8? 12 5 6 7 16 20 12 (a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. MSE = 60.5 (b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = 29.96 X What is the forecast for month 8? (c) Which method appears to provide the better forecast? O The average of all the previous values provides a better forecast, because its forecast for month 8 is larger than the month 8 forecast using the most recent value. The most recent value provides a better forecast, because its forecast for month 8 is smaller than the month 8 forecast using the average of all the previous values. O The most recent value provides a better forecast, because its MSE is smaller than the MSE using the average of all the previous values. Ⓒ The average of all the previous values provides a better forecast, because its MSE is smaller than the MSE using the most recent value.
Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
13th Edition
ISBN:9781133382119
Author:Swokowski
Publisher:Swokowski
Chapter5: Inverse, Exponential, And Logarithmic Functions
Section5.3: The Natural Exponential Function
Problem 40E
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Transcribed Image Text:Consider the following time series data.
Month 1 2
3
21 10 17 9
Value
4
What is the forecast for month 8?
12
5
6
7
16 20 12
(a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period.
MSE = 60.5
(b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE = 29.96
X
What is the forecast for month 8?
(c) Which method appears to provide the better forecast?
O The average of all the previous values provides a better forecast, because its forecast for month 8 is larger than the month 8 forecast using the most recent value.
The most recent value provides a better forecast, because its forecast for month 8 is smaller than the month 8 forecast using the average of all the previous
values.
The most recent value provides a better forecast, because its MSE is smaller than the MSE using the average of all the previous values.
The average of all the previous values provides a better forecast, because its MSE is smaller than the MSE using the most recent value.
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