Consider the following time series data. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 5 7 8 2 5 4. 6 4 6 8 (a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? The time series plot shows a linear trend and no seasonal pattern in the d 3.
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- Urban Travel Times Population of cities and driving times are related, as shown in the accompanying table, which shows the 1960 population N, in thousands, for several cities, together with the average time T, in minutes, sent by residents driving to work. City Population N Driving time T Los Angeles 6489 16.8 Pittsburgh 1804 12.6 Washington 1808 14.3 Hutchinson 38 6.1 Nashville 347 10.8 Tallahassee 48 7.3 An analysis of these data, along with data from 17 other cities in the United States and Canada, led to a power model of average driving time as a function of population. a Construct a power model of driving time in minutes as a function of population measured in thousands b Is average driving time in Pittsburgh more or less than would be expected from its population? c If you wish to move to a smaller city to reduce your average driving time to work by 25, how much smaller should the city be?Consider the following time seriesweek 1 2 3 4 5 6 value 18 13 16 11 17 14 a) Construct a time series plot? What type of pattern exists in the datab) Develop the three week moving average forecasts for this time series, then compute the measures of forecasts accurecyWhich of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?
- consider the following time series data.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15a. compute MSe using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. Whatis the forecast for month 8?b. compute MSe using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the nextperiod. What is the forecast for month 8?c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7.Consider the following time series data: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 26 15 22 14 21 25 17 PART 1.Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period and then calculate the forecast for month 8. PART 2.Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?
- After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company began an upward climb of record sales. Suppose the figures shown here are the DeBourgh monthly sales figures from January 2001 through December 2009 (in $1,000s). a) Produce a time series plot. Are there any trends evident in the data? Does DeBourgh have a seasonal component to its sales? b) Deseasonalize the data using Multiplicative model with a 0.5 weighted moving average. Produce a time series plot of the deseasonalized data and add a trendline. c) Forecast the sales from January to December of the year 2010. d) Include a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurrinG Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 January 139.7 165.1 177.8 228.6 266.7 431.8 381 431.8 495.3 February 114.3 177.8 203.2 254 317.5 457.2 406.4 444.5 533.4 March 101.6 177.8 228.6 266.7 368.3 457.2 431.8 495.3 635 April 152.4 203.2…Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in the given table. Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series. Round your answers to two decimal places. Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving average forecasts. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to two decimal places. What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average computation? Recall that MSE for the three-week moving average is 12.89.#4) Commuter ridership in Athens, Greece, during the summer months is believed to be heavily tied to the number of tourists visiting the city. During the past 12 years, the data are given in the following table. Year Number of Tourists (millions) Ridership (hundreds of thousands) 1 6 11 2 11 16 3 8 16 4 10 14 5 19 28 6 18 26 7 16 21 8 20 25 9 24 45 10 18 28 11 11 18 12 19 35 a) Create a time series plot for the ridership. b) Using linear regression to see if using the year is a good predictor for the ridership. What is the regression equation? How accurate is the model? c) Using linear regression to see if using the number of tourists is a good predictor for the ridership. What is the regression equation? How accurate is the model? d) Which linear regression equation is better? What is the expected ridership if 10 million tourists visit the city next year? e) Excel File
- The following ratio-to-moving averages for the seasonally adjusted series were found by the decomposition method applied on a time series representing quarterly sales for January 2018 to December 2020 period: a. Calculate the Seasonal Index for every quarter. b. If the trend is described by the trend line T^ = 1,000 + 30 t, what is the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021?Consider the following gasoline sales time series data. Click on the datafile logo to reference the data. Week Sales (1000s of gallons) 1 16 2 20 3 20 4 23 5 18 6 17 8 19 9 23 10 19 11 14 12 21 a. Using a weight of 1/2 for the most recent observation, 1/3 for the second most recent observation, and 1/6 the most recent observation, compute a three-week weighted moving average for the time series (to 2 decimals). Enter negative values as negative numbers. Week Time-Series Value Weighted MovingAverage Forecast ForecastError (Error)2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total b. Compute the MSE for the weighted moving average in part (a).MSE = Do you prefer this weighted moving average to the unweighted moving average? Remember that…Recent publications have addressed the growing concern in the scientific community around the increased prevalence of CAT scans in children between the ages of 7-18 and the growing rate of childhood cancers. Suppose the researcher plans to gather a SRS from a group of children in this age range who have received one or more CAT scans, and a SRS from a group of children who have never received a CAT scan and compare the number of cases of childhood cancers that develop over a prolonged period of time. Assume the following table summarizes the descriptive statistics for his samples. Population Average cases of childhood cancers Standard deviaton Sample size >CAT scan 24.6 2.4 1,894 No CAT scans 11.4 1.9 2,745 A) Carry out the appropriate statistical test to answer the researcher’s hypothesis regarding the difference in average cases of childhood cancers in children aged 7-18 receiving one or more CAT scans versus those that have never received a CAT scan. Use an alpha level…