Decision Alternative Up S₁ Stable s2 Down S3 Investment A, d₁ Investment B, d₂ Investment C, d3 Probabilities $70,000 $45,000 $20,000 Profit Investment A, d Investment B, d₂ Investment C, d 100 70 0.95 Economic Conditions 45 Profit Decision Maker A 0.85 0.45 0.65 (a) Using the expected value approach, which decision is preferred? E(d₂) - $68 ✔ thousand E(d₂) = $56.25 thousand E(d₂) - $45 ✔ thousand The expected value approach recommends Investment A, d. ✔ 20 (b) For the lottery having a payoff of $100,000 with probability p and $0 with probability (1-p), two decision makers expressed the following indifference probabilities. Find the most preferred decision for each decision maker using the expected utility approach. Indifference Probability (p) 45 45 0.15 Decision Maker A 6.95 X 0.6 0.35 Decision Maker B 0.2 Expected Utilities 0 20 Calculate the expected utility for each of the decision alternatives for each of the decision makers. (Assign a utility of 10 to the payoff of $100,000 and a utility of 0 to the payoff of $0.) 45 0.20 Enter a number. Decision Maker B

Decision Alternative Up S₁ Stable s2 Down S3 Investment A, d₁ Investment B, d₂ Investment C, d3 Probabilities $70,000 $45,000 $20,000 Profit Investment A, d Investment B, d₂ Investment C, d 100 70 0.95 Economic Conditions 45 Profit Decision Maker A 0.85 0.45 0.65 (a) Using the expected value approach, which decision is preferred? E(d₂) - $68 ✔ thousand E(d₂) = $56.25 thousand E(d₂) - $45 ✔ thousand The expected value approach recommends Investment A, d. ✔ 20 (b) For the lottery having a payoff of $100,000 with probability p and $0 with probability (1-p), two decision makers expressed the following indifference probabilities. Find the most preferred decision for each decision maker using the expected utility approach. Indifference Probability (p) 45 45 0.15 Decision Maker A 6.95 X 0.6 0.35 Decision Maker B 0.2 Expected Utilities 0 20 Calculate the expected utility for each of the decision alternatives for each of the decision makers. (Assign a utility of 10 to the payoff of $100,000 and a utility of 0 to the payoff of $0.) 45 0.20 Enter a number. Decision Maker B

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter20: The Problem Of Adverse Selection Moral Hazard

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 2MC

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Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions, 1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility
[A] Suppose that a drug company has developed an ointment that can be used to treat sores and reduce scarring. Surveys indicated that the ointment, which costs $10,000 for a full course of treatment, can improve the quality of life from 0.6 to 0.7 for patients with this problem. Assume that this population has a life expectancy of 70 years. No need to worry about discounting. 1. What is the Incremental Cost-Utility Ratio (ICUR) for taking the ointment over doing nothing for a typical 20-year-old patient? [Hint: This patient has only 50 years of life remaining.] 2. If the cost-effectiveness threshold is $5,000 per QALYS, will the 20-year-old patient choose to get the ointment? What about a 60-year-old patient? [B] Is it appropriate to evaluate a healthcare intervention using various methods of economic evaluation as discussed in this course, or should we choose one primary method that best fits the analysis?
3. (True, False, or Uncertain) The satisficing procedure is unlikely to perform well in an environment where the decision maker is learning about the options as she samples them.
Required: Find EMV and recommend the course of action Find the EMV under certainty Use the EVC to find the EVPI Determine the opportunity loss table Find the course of action that minimises EOL S1 (0.3) S2(0.7) EMV A1 100 540 408 A2 150 (50) 10 A3 350 320 329
Lela must decide to go on a winter trip to norway with the hope of seeing northern light would yield a utility level of 2,000 but she has only a 50% chance that they will show during the days of her trip. making the trip without seeing the lights would yield a utility level of 100 and there is 50 % chance of this happening. what is lela's expected utilty if show goes on the trip? a. 2,100 b.1,050 c.42 d.950
Decide the best choice. a. The inndividual waiting times experienced by customers in a busy breakfast cafe would be an example of a deterministic process because several customers are waiting to be seated. b. Informmation Systems and Informmation Technology are identical and synonyms that mean the exact same thing. c. In 2019, both manuffacturing and service sectors employed roughly the same percentage of the labor force in USA. d. Today, services constitute a large percentage (e.g., more than 60%) of the U.S. economy. e. Both choices ‘a’ and ‘b’ are correct.
a) There are several environmental factors that can impact a government’s financial condition. Some factors are more difficult to measure or assign probabilities to. Which of the following environmental factors is the most difficult to measure or assign a probability to? Group of answer choices 1: Business activity. 2: Rate of inflation. 3: Revenue restrictions. 4: Political culture and climate.
Uncertainty and willingness to pay for insurance. Utility = (Wealth)1/3 Prob(flood) = .04 Prob(no flood) = .96 Total wealth if flood = $100,000. Total Wealth if no flood = $800,000. Find: (i) expected value, (ii) expected utility, (iii) certainty equivalent, and (iv) maximum willingness to pay for a policy that provides 100% flood insurance coverage. Draw the utility function and include all solved values on the diagram. What is the average gross profit per insurance customer, if each customer is charged his own maximum willingness to pay?
Scenario planning is about:O.a) Preparing for scenarios that are highly impactful and/or uncertainO.b) Developing solutions to prevent scenarios from happeningO.c) Preparing only for those scenarios that are both impactful and uncertainO.d) ldentifying scenarios that are most likely to happen
A plaintiff believes that there is a 30% chance that he will winIf he wins, he will gain $50,000. It costs him $5000 in non‐recoverable litigation costs to take the case to court. If the plaintiff is risk‐neutral, which of the following is true? A) The plaintiff will take the case to court with an expected net‐gain of $10,000 B) The plaintiff will take the case to court with an expected net‐gain of $15,000 C) The plaintiff will not take the case to court because he is afraid of losing. D) None of the above
Answer the following question with (True) if the statement is correct and with(False) if the statement is wrong 1. Project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product only ( __ )Justify:2. Time, budget, resources and customer specifications are the project limitations( __ )Justify:3. Adding working shifts to a late project will help crashing the project towards thedeadline( __ )Justify:4. Finish-to-start (FS) is a logical relationship in which a predecessor activity cannot startuntil a successor activity has finished. ( __ )Justify:5. The project customer/user not considered as a project stakeholder. ( __ )Justify:
Q1. A farmer believes there is a 50-50 chance that the next growing season will be abnormally rainy. His expected utility function has the form Expected utility = 0.5lnYNR + 0.5lnYR Where and represent the farmers income in the state of ‘normal rain’ and ‘rainy’ respectively. Suppose the farmer must choose between two crops that promise the following income prospects Crop YNR YR Wheat $83,000 $10,000 Maize $83,000 $15000 What mix of wheat and maize would provide maximum expected utility to this farmer?