Demand forecasting is the primary data for decision-making in any organization. What will happen if organizations do not conduct a demand forecast? Consider any company of your choice and elaborate on your answer
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Demand
- What will happen if organizations do not conduct a demand forecast?
- Consider any company of your choice and elaborate on your answer that you have given in part 1.
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Demand forecasting is the primary data for decision-making in any organization. a. What will happen if organizations do not conduct a demand forecast? b. Consider any company of your choice and elaborate on your answer that you have given in part (a).The most naive forecast can is quite valuable in leading to an organization’s success because it is most widely understood by senior managers. True or False
- UltraPure used two different techniques (F1 and F2) to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are in the table below. PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 67 60 2 75 67 67 3 70 71 70 4 74 69 72 5 69 71 77 6 72 70 77 7 80 72 75 8 78 75 83 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) c. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your intermediate calculations to 2 decimal places and and final answers to 2 decimal places.)UltraPure used two different techniques (F1 and F2) to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are in the table below. PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 67 60 2 75 67 67 3 70 71 70 4 74 69 72 5 69 71 77 6 72 70 77 7 80 72 75 8 78 75 83 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)Given the following forecast and cost information, Regular time cost $ 40.00 per unitdetermine the total cost of a plan that uses regular time Overtime cost $ 60.00 per unitproduction output of 600 units per month, overtime is subcontracting cost $ 80.00 per unitused when needed up to a maximum of 60 units per holding cost $ 10.00 per unit per monthmonth, and subcontracting is used if additional units are needed to meet the forecast.Month Forecast1 5702 6003 6304 6505 6706 690Totals
- If a forecast can be made using a quantitative model, a forecaster need not use her personal opinion or subjective judgment anymore. True FalseWhen a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to profit and loss statements. What type of forecasting information do you think would the investors be looking for? Why?The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).