What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained from various sources and are analyzed? O a. Judgmental forecasting method O b. Statistical forecasting method O c. Associative model O d. Time series forecasting method
Q: Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17…
A: The concept used here is forecasting with Moving averages and forecast evaluation using MAE, MSE and…
Q: a. Using a simple three-month moving average, make a forecast for this month. (Round your answer to…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting the future demand according to past data and demand.
Q: a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week…
A: Forecasting is predicting in advance the values through various methods like moving averages,…
Q: (a) Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series. 4-Week 5-Week Moving…
A: (a) (b)
Q: (4-b). Use simple exponential smoothing with α = 0.6 to forecast the tire sales for September…
A: Forecasting sales refers to the prediction of future sales using previous data to estimate the…
Q: 1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a…
A: Since you have posted multiple questions, as per guideline we have answered the first three…
Q: 17. Statistical and observational methods, where adequate data or settings are available in which to…
A: Forecasting: It means the prediction of the future period. The prediction will be done based on the…
Q: Explain what is seasonality and how forecast is done using data that has seasonality
A: In time series analysis, seasonalities are regarded as repeated up / down cyclic patterns in serial…
Q: Which of the following is used to describe the degree of forecast error? a. Median and Mode b. Mean…
A: Mean absolute percent error is the method to describe the degree of relationship between errors for…
Q: Compare and contrast between the grassroots forecasting technique and the Delphi method.
A: Meaning- Grassroots forecasting technique The grassroots method asks those nearest to the end…
Q: What does the word "biassed" mean when applied to a specific forecasting technique?
A: Forecasting is a common and widely used methodology in almost every area of endeavor, including…
Q: Develop a 3-weck weighted average forecast for Week 4 through 9 with weights WI - W2 = W3 = 0.2 0.3…
A: A moving average based on weighted average puts weight on the data gathered recently, by multiplying…
Q: 20- Forecasting is very important in predicting the future sales of a company. Can you identify the…
A: Below is the solution;-
Q: Forecasts based on averages. Given the following data:PeriodNumber ofComplaints1 602 653 554 585…
A: Formula: Answer:
Q: Which of the following concepts explain why we tend to make errors in affective forecasting?
A: Affective forecasting refers to the prediction of future events on the basis of a current emotion.
Q: Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: is based on the principle of using only the last observation in a sequence of stable data as a…
A: Option C is correct. The naive forecast is based on the principle of using only the last observation…
Q: Choose one qualitative forecasting technique from the following. O a. Regression analysis O b.…
A: Find the answers below: The Correct Answer is b) Market research
Q: Accuracy of forecasts. The manager of a large manufacturer of industrial pumps must choose…
A: Given data, Assume that each forecast has an average error of zero. Forecast Month…
Q: An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller…
A: Linear trend equation: Ft = 124 + 2.1t. When t = 11, forecast for the 11th period will be 124 + 2.1…
Q: Two different forecasting models were used to forecastsales of a popular soda on a college campus.…
A: Solution - Introduction - [1] Forecasting Model - Forecasting models are one of the numerous methods…
Q: Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. Year Time Series…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Year Quarter Time Series Value Y1 1 1 36 2 24…
Q: Forecasting is utilized in which of the following areas? A) product demand B. process design (c) new…
A: Efficiency is the ability to reduce or eliminate the wastage of resources, money, and time in an…
Q: What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer…
A: Thank you for you question. As per our guidelines, We will be answering the first question for you…
Q: Using MAD as a criterion, which technique has the better performance record?
A: MAD or Mean Absolute Deviation indicating the average value of the absolute errors. An efficient…
Q: A) What makes a forecast optimal?
A: A) Practically all administrative choices depend on Forecasting. Each choice becomes functional…
Q: 4 .Substitute for Problem # 4 on in attachment)-Calculate the MAD,revised MAD and the Revised…
A: Given data is The revised forecast using the Naive method and revised MAD is shown below. As the…
Q: Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12 consecutive months follow. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10…
A: a)
Q: a. They generally work best when combined with a quantitative approach
A: Qualitative research comes from open-ended questions. It collects data in a different way. Instead…
Q: You have a data set that includes time period and past sales data, and you want to use a time series…
A: Ans// D) Weighted moving average Time series forecasting makes the prediction about the future by…
Q: Here are the errors associated with a particular forecast over the past five months, in…
A: Forecasting is a methodology that uses past information as input to make well-informed predictions…
Q: Firms keep supplies of inventory for which of the following reasons? To provide a feeling of…
A: The company keeps inventory supplies to run the operations smoothly and to ensure that the company…
Q: constants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing…
A: Note: - Since the data for the 'Volkswagen Beetles' question is not given we will answer the…
Q: All the following are techniques used in quantitative forecasting except. A. Regression analysis B.…
A: Forecasting refers to the approach of making predictions on the basis of present and past…
Q: All forecasts are subject to error. Do you think topmanagers would be concerned about the effectson…
A: Forecasting is described as a tool that will allow the businesses in the budgeting process and also…
Q: Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not particularly useful as inputs to inventory and…
A: Qualitative forecasts and casual forecasts are not specifically helpful as inputs to the inventory…
Q: What forecasting technique makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews? Historical…
A: We’ll answer the first question since the exact one wasn’t specified. Please submit a new question…
Q: a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. b. Use simple exponential…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: sing data in columns A-C create a forecast using the Simple Moving Average method based on 10 weeks…
A: Forecasting means predicting in advance the values of future sales/demand by using different methods…
Q: Explain the effects it does on the no. Of cycles in a moving average have on the forecasts…
A: A Moving Average (MA) forecasting method estimates anticipated demand by calculating the average…
Q: Which of the following is true about naive forecasting? a. It involves a two-period shift between…
A: Naive Forecasting is an estimation technique in which the actual value of the last period is used as…
Q: Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?b. Explain the term “wrong” as it…
A: Forecasting generally means predicting or estimating something for future events. It is also about…
Q: F1 = F, + a(D, – F,) MA3 = (D1+D2+D3)/3 1+1 Week Calls МАЗ ES Squared Errors with MA3 Squared Errors…
A: 1) The 3-period moving average forecast can be determined in excel as follows: Thus, the forecast…
Q: You manager gave you February 2021 actual sales and sales forecast. This is the only raw data you…
A: A business estimate might be a forecast of future deals income. Deals conjectures are normally…
Q: None of the options are correct.
A: What is Stationarity? A time collection has stationarity if a shift in time doesn’t purpose an…
Q: . What is the mean square error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method?…
A: I am using the 2 periods simple moving average method to find average forecasts. It is the average…
Q: Which one of the forecasting methods is capable of handling large amounts of data and uncovering…
A: Forecasting: It is a method that practices historical data as inputs to make knowledgeable…
Q: A company which installs swimming pools has recently merged with another regional installer. It is…
A: Forecasting in advance helps to estimate the sales that could be generated in the future period.…
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?a. What is the mean square error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method? b. What is the mean absolute error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method? c. What is the mean absolute percentage error for time period 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method? Round all answers to two decimal places. Time Period 1 2 3 4 Mean absolute error (MAE) Mean squared error (MSE) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) Electric Bill 510 315 420 480 Average Forecast Forecast Error
- K 2. Setting an advertising budget is a forecasting exercise. What are the fundamental principles that should be adhered to when undertaking forecasting? Be conservative and use the best evidence-based technique available Be innovative and use multiple methods and choose the optimal one Be conservative and use multiple evidence-based techniques, taking the average result Be innovative and use multiple evidence-based techniques, taking the average resultExplain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses time-series data. Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts? 3. How has technology had an impact on forecasting? What capability would an organization have to have to not need forecasts? Give three examples of unethical conduct involving forecasting and the ethical principle each violatesA) What makes a forecast optimal? B) How would you asses the accuracy of a forecast? C) Suppose you had two, or more, competing forecasts for the same variable. How would you make use of these forecasts?
- Describe what are the main advantages that quantitative techniques for forecasting have over qualitative techniques? What limitations do quantitative techniques have?why forecasting is needed in business a. to ascertain resource requirements b. to project profit c. to identify business scenarios d. all of the above2) Develop forecasts for FY2023 using the two forecasting methods currently employed by Throx. a) What are the forecast values that you calculated for each? Please be sure to showwork. b) What forecast do you recommend using? Please provide your rationale. c) Are there other considerations or recommendations that you would recommend toThrox about their forecast. PLEASE INCLUDE FORMULAS USED in EXCEL FORMAT. Trying to verify if formulas used were correct.
