Describe Risk identification, Risk Probability& effect, and Risk Response strategy. Explain it briefly and include example
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Question 3
Risk planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan the risk management
activities for a project. It is an integral part of planning for major projects. Describe Risk
identification, Risk Probability& effect, and Risk Response strategy. Explain it briefly and include example
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- QUESTION 3a) Explain the risk management procedure. Set out the risks associated with attendingthe annual Engineering Institute of Zambia symposium in Livingstone. Draw a riskregister (log) and populate it with at least four perceived risks. Analyse these risksand rank them.b) You are planning the manufacture of modification to an existing product. Youranalysis has come up with the following information. What contingency reservewould you use? Project data Costcontingency There is a 30 percent probability of a delay in thereceipt of parts, with a cost to the project ofZMW90,000. There is a 20 percent probability that the parts willcost ZMW 100,000 less than expected. There is a 25 percent probability that two parts willnot fit together when installed, costing an extraZMW30,500. There is a 30 percent probability that themanufacture may be simpler than expected, savingZMW20,500. There is a 5 percent probability of a design defect,causing ZMW 50,000 of…Question 4An investor is to purchase one of three types of real estate, as illustrated in Figure below. Theinvestor must decide among an apartment building, an office building, and a warehouse. Thefuture states of nature that will determine how much profit the investor will make are goodeconomic conditions and poor economic conditions. The profits that will result from eachdecision in the event of each state of nature are shown in Table below: a) Find the optimal act using Maxi-Max criteriab) Find the optimal act using Mini-Max criteria c) Find the optimal act using Maxi-Min criteria d) Find the optimal act using Min-Max regret tableQUESTION ONE(a) Mr. Sak is interested in developing and marketing a new drug. The cost of extensiveresearch to develop the drug would be 100,000. The manager of research programme saidthat there is 60% chance that the drug will be developed successfully. The market potentialis assessed as follows with present value of profit:Market conditions Probability Present value of profits.Large market potential 0.1 500,000Moderate market potential 0.6 220,000Low market potential 0.3 80,000The present value figures do not include the cost of research. While Mr. Sakala wasconsidering this proposal, another similar proposal came up which also required theinvestment of 100,000. The present value of profit for the second proposal was 120,000.The return on the investment in the second proposal is almost certain.i. Draw a decision tree for Mr. Sak indicating all choices and eventsii. What decision Mr. Sak should take regarding the investment of 100,000?iii. If Mr. Sak is a risk averter, should he…
- Question: Develop a problem statement for the scenario given below by considering the variables involved? Suppose you are a manager of a beverage company. You have recently witnessed a sudden decrease in sales. It has been widely accepted that due to Covid-19, the purchasing power of consumers has been declined. On the other hand in such situations, sales personnel avoid roaming for selling to avoid contact. The sudden decrease in the number of hours work and alternate shifts due to Covid-19 SOPs also resulted in a low-profit margin. You have to figure out the actual reason for the decline in sales as a manager.Question 3 Make a decimal outline of any of these topics (choose one only): (a) Impact of CORONA-19 Pandemic on Teaching and Learning, (b) Impact of CORONA-19 Pandemic on Employment, and (c) Impact of CORONA-19 Pandemic on Business.QUESTION 1 Sales of Fat Lips Burgers for 2012 are shown in the table below. 1. Do the 2 month SMA forecast 2. Do 2 month WMA forecast using the information below WMA – 2: last month, 1 – last 2 months 3. For the month of January 2012, the forecast was 438. Do the EMA forecast with the smoothing constant = 0.3. What is the forecast for Jan 2013? 4. Compare the forecasts above using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Which forecast method gives the least errors? Month Actual Sales Forecast Jan 2012 438 Feb 420 March 414 Apr 318 May 306 June 240 July 240 Aug 216 Sep 198 Oct 225 Nov 270 Dec 315 Jan 2013 - QUESTION 2Dayang sells 5 kg bags of fertilizer to local farmers in Tg Karang. The sales data for the past 11 months is shown below. Month Demand (10s of bags) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 1. Find the forecast for the month 12 using the methods below: a. Simple 4 month moving average (SMA) b.…
- Question: A renowned multinational shipping company is opening its new branch office in Lahore. You are working in the company as IT Manager. Your Chief Information Officer (CIO) have nominated you as the project manager for deploying IT infrastructure in the new office. During the project, you need to procure 20 boxes (1000 feet each) of Cat 6 Network Cables, 150 Information Outlets (I/O’s), 150 faceplates, 150 back boxes, 4 Patch panels (24 ports each), 4 Cable Managers and One communication rack. The company you are working for is a multinational company and has a very strict procurement procedure and procurement audit is mandatory at the end of the project. What steps you should follow for procurement of these items for your project. You also need to develop the Bill of Quantity (BOQ) of the products that you want to procure. Also develop a Purchase order for the same.Question 1 Given the following payoff table with the profits ($m), a firm might expect alternative investments (A, B, C) under different levels of interest rate. payoffs as profits states of nature decision alternatives 1(5%) 2(7%) 3(9%) A 14 22 6 B 19 18 11 C 12 17 15 a. Use the alternative method to verify EVPI NOW ASSUME THAT THE PAYOFFS ARE COSTS ANSWER THE FOLLOWING: b. What is the most the firm should be willing to pay to obtain further (perfect) information (EVPI)? c. Use the alternative method to verify EVPI. Please answer all three parts of Question 1.Question #4 - Jerry Smith is thinking about opening a bicycle shop in his hometown. Jerry loves to take his own bike on 50-mile trips with his friends, but he believes that any small business should be started only if there is a good chance of making a profit. Jerry can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all. The profits will depend on the size of the shop and whether the market is favorable or unfavorable for his products. Because there will be a 5-year lease on the building that Jerry is thinking about using, he wants to make sure that he makes the correct decision. Jerry is also thinking about hiring his old marketing professor to conduct a marketing research study. If the study is conducted, the study could be favorable (i.e., predicting a favorable market) or unfavorable (i.e., predicting an unfavorable market). Develop a decision tree for Jerry.
- Opinion to this statement “If we don’t know what Risk is? We can’t do Risk management”Engineering Management questionWhat may be used as aids in planningQuestion 4 (a) With reference to your department or one in a company or organization that you are familiar with that is involved in generating forecasts of air cargo traffic, propose the purposes for which the forecasts can be employed. In the process of generating air cargo traffic forecasts, appraise the forces that will promote air freight growth and the constraints the air cargo market are likely to face.